Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus on AI investments has overshadowed other potential investment opportunities in various sectors, including semiconductors, power plants, and capital goods [1][2] - Companies not directly benefiting from AI are highlighted as compelling investment options, such as Freeport-McMoRan, which has indirect exposure to AI [1] Core Insights and Arguments - A screening of Buy-rated US stocks not included in AI/power/infrastructure ETFs identified 82 stocks with positive 3-month EPS revisions and trading below a market multiple of 26x, leading to a final list of 16 equities [2] - Savita Subramanian models an 8% return for the S&P over the next 12 months, emphasizing the importance of owning average stocks rather than the index [3] - Risks associated with AI investments include potential declines in middle-income white-collar jobs, which could impair consumer spending [3] - Hyperscalers investing heavily in AI technology may face de-rating if monetization does not meet expectations, as they currently trade at high multiples despite capital-intensive spending [3] Notable Companies and Their Performance - **Amcor PLC (AMCR)**: Recent acquisition of Berry Global is expected to enhance valuation, with EBITDA projected to approach $3.8 billion for F26 [11][12] - **AT&T Inc. (T)**: Strong performance metrics with 405k post-paid phone net additions, projecting a 9% EPS growth in 2026 [15][17] - **BGC Group**: Dominates the energy derivatives market, with expected growth in volumes due to increased power consumption driven by cloud and AI adoption [18][19] - **Church & Dwight (CHD)**: Positioned to benefit from consumer trade-down trends, with organic sales growth of 3.4% in Q3 [20][21] - **Dollar General (DG)**: Improved execution and a focus on lower price points are expected to boost sales, with a current valuation below the 5-year average [23][27] - **Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)**: Anticipates a restart of the Grasberg mine, with bullish forecasts for copper prices due to supply challenges [32][34] - **Henry Schein (HSIC)**: Transitioning to a higher-margin business model, with a target of 60% operating income from high-growth products by 2027 [38][39] - **Progressive Corp (PGR)**: Strong EPS revisions and expected dividend announcements are anticipated to drive growth [65][67] - **Walt Disney Co. (DIS)**: Growth drivers intact with expectations for double-digit growth in Entertainment operating income [80] Additional Important Insights - The market is currently cautious, providing room for multiple expansions as fundamentals improve across various sectors [14] - Regulatory improvements in Connecticut are expected to enhance Eversource's valuation [28][30] - Viking Holdings is positioned for premium valuation due to its unique brand and superior margins in the cruise industry [76][79] - The overall sentiment indicates a potential for significant investment opportunities outside the AI sector, as companies adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer behaviors [1][2][3]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market appears calm with the VIX at around 16, but significant uncertainties remain [1][2] - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown risks and recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts create a complex market environment [2] - Risk-averse investors may prefer ETFs over individual stocks to mitigate potential losses from company-specific issues [3][4] ETF Advantages - ETFs provide instant diversification, spreading risk across multiple stocks, which helps moderate volatility [5] - They combine diversification with liquidity and transparency, allowing for quick adjustments to market conditions [5] - Sector-specific ETFs enable cautious investors to engage in market gains while limiting exposure to individual company risks [6] Attractive Sectors for Q4 - The Technology sector remains appealing for capital appreciation despite challenges from high interest rates [7] - The Utilities sector offers stability and reliable dividends, making it a classic defensive investment [8] - Financial stocks may benefit from rate cuts, potentially enhancing lending activity and net interest margins [8] Top ETFs to Consider - **Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)**: Focuses on tech industries with top holdings in Nvidia (14.86%), Microsoft (12.57%), and Apple (12.33%); gained 22.4% year-to-date [10][11] - **Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU)**: Includes electric and water utilities with top holdings in NextEra Energy (11.58%) and The Southern Company (7.77%); surged 16.4% year-to-date [12][13] - **Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF)**: Covers financial services with top holdings in Berkshire Hathaway (11.92%), JP Morgan Chase (11.21%), and Visa (7.50%); increased 10.5% year-to-date [14]

Group 1 - The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) has reached a 52-week high and is up 52.5% from its 52-week low of $172.45 per share, indicating strong momentum in the technology sector [1] - The underlying index of XLK includes various industries such as computers & peripherals, software, telecommunications, semiconductors, and IT services, showcasing the diversity within the technology sector [1] - The ETF charges 8 basis points in annual fees, making it a cost-effective option for investors [1] Group 2 - The recent tech rally has been fueled by strong performance from major companies, particularly Alphabet (GOOGL), which reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2025 results and increased its capital expenditures forecast for AI infrastructure [2] - This positive outlook from Alphabet has raised expectations for similar earnings results from other large technology firms, indicating a potential trend in the sector [2] Group 3 - XLK currently holds a Zacks ETF Rank 1 (Strong Buy), suggesting that the ETF may continue to outperform in the coming months [3]

Group 1: Costco Overview - Costco's stock price has risen significantly, with a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50, above its five-year average of 39, and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.53, exceeding its five-year average of 1.08 [2] - The company operates 903 locations globally, with a market value of $428 billion, making rapid growth challenging [3] - Costco has averaged annual gains of around 20% over the past 10 to 15 years, but a conservative estimate suggests a 12% growth rate could lead to a market value of $1.3 trillion in a decade [3] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) holds a dominant position in the semiconductor industry, with a market share of 67% [4] - The company plans to invest over $100 billion in U.S.-based plants, benefiting from a joint venture with Intel and increasing demand for chips due to the rise of artificial intelligence [5] - TSM's stock has grown at an average annual rate of around 20% over the past 10 to 15 years, and a 10% growth rate could increase its market value from $823 billion to $2.1 trillion [6] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has a market value of $1.9 trillion and is considered undervalued with a forward P/E of 16.3, below its five-year average of 22.5 [7] - The company has ambitious spending plans that could drive future growth, despite concerns about potential government intervention [7] - Alphabet's diverse portfolio includes YouTube, Nest, and ventures into healthcare and self-driving technology, positioning it for continued growth [7] Group 4: Tencent Holdings - Tencent Holdings has a market value of $513 billion and needs to increase its value by a factor of 2.5, averaging a 10% annual gain to surpass Costco [8] - The company has averaged annual gains of 11% over the past decade and is currently undervalued with a forward P/E of 2.1, well below its five-year average of 7.5 [9] - Tencent owns WeChat, a leading social media platform in China, and is involved in mobile gaming, fintech, and cloud software, indicating strong growth potential despite trade war uncertainties [9][10]