Ashi Sae Yang/iStock via Getty Images Performance During the fourth quarter of 2025, Night Watch Investment Management LP depreciated by -1.80% net of fees. 2025 performance ended at 23.61%. Despite high single stock volatility in Q4, we ended the quarter roughly flat. Overall, we are very happy with how 2025 transpired. Similar to 2024, our performance was broad-based and not dependent on one or two securities. Notable Positions Haypp (HAYPP) was our top performer of the year. Haypp is the largest e-co ...

引子 最近金融圈里有个消息让我这个量化交易老手都忍不住多看了两眼：基金代销行业正在经历一场前所未有的"瘦身运动"。数据显 示，下半年已有34家基金管理人与16家代销机构终止合作。这让我想起了当年在复旦读书时，教授说过的一句话："金融市场最残 酷的地方在于，它从不给落后者任何喘息的机会。" 二、量化视角下的行业变革 说到这儿，我得插一句：为什么我对这个趋势如此敏感？因为我做量化交易十几年了，最擅长的就是从数据中看出门道。现在的基 金代销市场数据清晰地显示出一个特征：头部效应越来越明显。 大型代销机构在市场份额、客户资源和品牌影响力上的优势不是一星半点。而随着公募基金费率改革的推进，管理费、托管费及代 销佣金的下降更是让中小机构的生存空间雪上加霜。这就像股市里的马太效应：强者愈强，弱者愈弱。 一、行业洗牌的背后逻辑 作为一个从大学就开始玩量化交易的老手，我太清楚这个行业的游戏规则了。这次代销行业的洗牌，表面上看是合规成本上升、费 率改革冲击的结果，但本质上反映的是金融市场的一个永恒真理：弱者终将被淘汰。 看看那些被清退的机构名单就知道了：要么是客户规模小的独立销售机构，要么是以期货公司为代表的跨界玩家。这些机构的 ...

Core Insights - The fund distribution industry is experiencing a recovery, with significant growth in sales commissions reaching a scale of over 10 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [2][3] - The three major fund distribution giants, Ant Fund, China Merchants Bank, and Tiantian Fund, have shown varying degrees of performance improvement in their sales figures for the first half of 2025 [2][5] Group 1: Performance of Major Players - Ant Fund reported a revenue of 9.251 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 22.46% increase from 7.554 billion yuan in the same period last year, with a net profit surge of 360.36% [5][6] - China Merchants Bank's agency fund commission income reached 2.438 billion yuan, up 14.35% year-on-year, although its non-monetary public fund sales decreased by 7.84% [6][7] - Tiantian Fund's revenue slightly increased by 0.49% to 1.424 billion yuan, with net profit remaining stable at 64 million yuan [6][7] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - The fund distribution industry has undergone significant adjustments and differentiation, with a notable recovery in the first half of 2025, although performance varies widely among institutions [9][10] - The industry is facing challenges such as fee reductions and increased competition, leading to a concentration of market share among top players while smaller institutions struggle [9][10] - The market share of bank channels has decreased from 57.9% in Q1 2021 to 44.2% by the end of 2024, as third-party and brokerage channels gain ground [10][12] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Major players are exploring new paths to enhance competitiveness through service innovation and asset allocation optimization [3][12] - Ant Fund has launched a one-stop index investment service platform "Index+" to improve user engagement and service offerings [5][15] - China Merchants Bank is focusing on enhancing customer experience through its "TREE asset allocation service system" and integrating online and offline services [16][17]

Core Insights - The financial performance of China's two major fund distribution giants, Ant Fund and Tian Tian Fund, shows a stark contrast in growth trajectories for the first half of 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - Ant Fund achieved a revenue of 9.251 billion yuan, a 22.46% increase from 7.554 billion yuan in the same period last year, while Tian Tian Fund's revenue was only 1.424 billion yuan, showing a modest growth of approximately 0.5% [2][3] - Ant Fund's net profit reached 434 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate exceeding 360% compared to 94.274 million yuan in the previous year, whereas Tian Tian Fund's net profit remained flat at 64 million yuan [2][3] - Ant Fund's revenue is 6.5 times that of Tian Tian Fund, and its net profit is 6.8 times greater [2][3] Market Dynamics - Ant Fund benefits from a user base of over 1 billion monthly active users on the Alipay platform, allowing it to tap into a large, diverse market, while Tian Tian Fund primarily relies on its independent app and a more experienced investor demographic [4] - The sales service fee and transaction fees are the core revenue sources for both companies, but Ant Fund's larger asset base provides it with more stable revenue streams and stronger bargaining power with fund companies [4] - The fund distribution industry is witnessing a deepening of competitive barriers, making it difficult for new entrants due to low profit margins [7] Strategic Outlook - Ant Fund is expected to continue leveraging its scale and ecosystem advantages, while Tian Tian Fund may focus on enhancing its advisory services and user experience to find growth opportunities [7] - With the A-share market recovering, both companies are likely to see further revenue growth, but Ant Fund's dominant market position is expected to remain unchallenged in the short term [7]