A dry spell in Australia is taking the edge off of a bumper wheat harvest, trimming supplies from one of the world’s largest exporters https://t.co/l0hM8M0obi ...

As for boxed beef, these prices have always come with an asterisk given they are “reported” by USDA. Now we have an Ag Secretary whose job requirement is to act as a cheerleader for the US president and make sure everything he says regarding agriculture is proven correct. Recall the president said, on September 8, he would lower beef prices. Since Friday, September 5 (highlighted in orange), the choice beef market has been reported lower every, single, day with select has been down all but four days. Choice ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on **Global Commodities**, particularly the volatility carry strategies in the commodities market, as the worst tariff and geopolitical shocks are believed to be behind us [1][2][22]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Volatility Carry Strategies**: There are opportunities in commodities volatility carry QIS (Quantitative Investment Strategies) as volatility premia are expected to recover. This is attributed to a structural imbalance between volatility buying and selling in commodities compared to other asset classes [2][10]. - **Market Conditions**: The current macro backdrop is seen as favorable for volatility carry strategies, with expectations of a shift into a "Goldilocks" regime, which historically has led to better performance for commodities volatility carry strategies [5][26]. - **Performance of Strategies**: Volatility carry strategies have faced challenges in 2025 due to negative volatility premia caused by tariff and geopolitical shocks, but there is optimism for recovery as these shocks subside [4][24]. - **Specific Commodity Considerations**: - **Oil**: Brent has historically higher volatility premia than WTI due to geopolitical risks and hedging activities [31]. - **Gold**: Weekly options have shown better performance than monthly options due to increased liquidity and demand for short-term optionality [41][36]. - **Copper**: The market is expected to stabilize following tariff clarity, which should benefit volatility carry strategies [44]. Additional Important Content - **Quantitative Research Findings**: The quant research team has confirmed the continuation of a "Normal" macro regime, with potential for a shift to "Goldilocks," which is favorable for commodities volatility carry strategies [5][26]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and US sanctions on Russian oil are noted as risks that could impact crude oil volatility [23]. - **Seasonality in Curve Carry Strategies**: Curve carry strategies have been highlighted as top performers among major commodities QIS YTD, with expectations for continued positive returns into Q4 due to strong seasonal trends [7][48]. Data and Figures - **Volatility Dashboard**: The report includes a dashboard showing the current implied and realized volatility levels across various commodities, indicating a return to positive volatility premia for most major commodities [11][19]. - **Historical Performance**: Historical data suggests that volatility carry strategies tend to perform better under stable macro conditions, with significant underperformance during periods of heightened uncertainty, such as the GFC and COVID-19 pandemic [15][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook for the commodities market and volatility carry strategies.

Corn Market - The corn market showed little activity with December futures (ZCZ25) remaining unchanged after a trading range of 1.75 cents and a volume of 12,000 contracts [1] - The US is expected to harvest a large corn crop in 2025, and the commercial side has priced in a bearish scenario, as indicated by the stabilization of futures spreads [1] - The National Corn Index was reported at $3.78, up 2.25 cents for the day, with the national average basis at 41.75 cents under December futures [1] Soybean Market - The soybean market opened lower with November futures (ZSX25) trading in a range of 4.5 cents and a volume of 10,500 contracts [4] - The November-January futures spread covered 69% of the calculated full commercial carry, indicating a bearish sentiment compared to 64% a year ago [4] - The National Soybean Index was calculated at $9.5450, with the national average basis at 79.0 cents under November futures [4] Wheat Market - The wheat market was mostly lower, with December futures (ZWZ25) remaining unchanged and a total overnight trade volume of about 5,000 contracts [5] - The Dec-March futures spread covered a neutral 51% of the calculated full commercial carry, while the National SRW Index was at $4.4850 [5] - The National HRW Index was reported at $4.33, marking its lowest monthly close since July 2020 [5]

Trade Agreement - Bangladesh has signed an initial agreement with US wheat growers to import 700,000 tons of wheat annually for five years [1] Geopolitical Considerations - The agreement is made as Dhaka faces the threat of steep US tariffs [1]