Global Markets Strategy 26 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Shenzhen Opportunity Forum takeaways On 20-21 January, the 2026 JPM China Opportunity Forum brought together 100+ companies and 210+ investors. We s ...

Accessible version Greater China Industrials China humanoid robot & EV supply chain tour takeaways Auto/EV OEMs & supply chain: eyes on demand/costs The weak auto/EV sales trend is extendng into January, given EV purchase tax subsidy has been cut and trade-in subsidy has not been fully in place yet. In light of this, Chery plans new model launches after Lunar New Year in February. Impacts from recent BOM costs hike is another key question: Chery estimates c. RMB4.5-5k BOM costs increase for EV models, facto ...

22 January 2026 | 8:51AM HKT Equity Research CHINA HUMANOID ROBOT AI Robotics & Power Field Trip takeaways: Driving multi-fold shipment growth through pragmatic verticalization into 2026-2027E As part of our GS China AI Robotics & Power Trip, we visited 8 private/non-covered AI Robotics related companies and met 6 C-level management in Hangzhou/Shanghai/Shenzhen during Jan 15-20 from Unitree, Mechmind, Fourier, LimX Dynamics, UBTech, EngineAI, Paxini and Orbbec. Goldman Sachs China Humanoid Robot Encouragin ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive sector view on humanoid robots, with a top pick being UBTECH and recommendations to accumulate stocks of Hengli Hydraulic, Leader Drive, and Shuanghuan Drive due to recent stock weakness [1]. Core Insights - Humanoid robot revenues are expected to grow exponentially in 2026, with all five companies visited during the Citi Industrial Tour anticipating at least a doubling of revenues compared to 2025 [1]. - The production ramp-up by Chinese and leading US humanoid robot makers is driving this growth, supported by accelerated supply chain build-up and increased capacity [1]. - Orbbec's humanoid robot revenue is projected to increase from Rmb10 million in 2025 to Rmb100-200 million in 2026, with key customers including UBTECH and AgiBot [2]. - UBTECH is enhancing its data collection capabilities through partnerships with training centers, which is expected to boost future shipments [3]. - Lingyi iTech anticipates humanoid robot orders to reach Rmb1 billion in 2025, with a target to grow revenue to Rmb10 billion by 2030 [4]. - Leader Drive expects its humanoid robot product shipments to at least double in 2026, driven by aggressive production guidance from key customers [5]. - Rongtai is expanding its micro ball screw capacity to support a leading US humanoid robot maker's production ramp-up to 3,000 units per week by Q1 2026 [5]. Summary by Company Orbbec - Revenue growth from Rmb1 million in 2024 to Rmb10 million in 2025, with a potential increase to Rmb100-200 million in 2026 [2]. UBTECH - Main products include Walker S1/S2 for industrial applications, with a forecast of humanoid robot shipments reaching at least 500 in 2025 and 2,000 in 2026 [9]. Lingyi iTech - Aims for humanoid robot revenue of Rmb10 billion by 2030, with significant orders expected in 2025 [4]. Leader Drive - Approximately 20% of revenue in 9M25 came from humanoid robot products, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 [5]. Rongtai - Preparing to support a production increase to 3,000 humanoid robots per week by Q1 2026, with plans to expand capacity to 5,000 per week by the end of 2026 [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **humanoid robot industry** and its developments showcased at the **China Industrial Industry Fair (CIIF)** held in Shanghai on **24 September 2025** [3][4]. Core Insights - **Hardware vs. Software**: Hardware is not seen as a bottleneck for humanoid robots, with significant cost reductions in components. The price for dexterous hands has decreased from **RMB50-100k** to **RMB10-60k** per hand, with Linkerbot's offering at **RMB8.8k** per hand [3]. However, software remains underdeveloped, with key AI models still in training [3]. - **Cost Reduction**: Overseas companies like Nidec are relocating supply chains to China, which is expected to further reduce costs in components as mass production of humanoid robots begins [3]. - **Software Development**: Unitree's recent open-sourcing of its world model aims to enhance the software ecosystem for humanoid robots, particularly benefiting educational institutions [3]. Company Highlights - **Inovance**: Unveiled new humanoid robot products, including a robotic arm and various actuators. The company plans to start commercial production in **2026**, with an estimated actuator value of **RMB34k/unit** by **2030**. The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach **1.1 million shipments** by **2030**, indicating a market size of approximately **RMB37 billion** [4]. - **Preferred Picks**: Inovance, Hongfa, and Shuanghuan are highlighted as preferred investment choices due to their strong market positions and growth potential [5][9]. Stock Ratings and Valuations - **Inovance (300124 CH)**: Current price **RMB86.33**, target price **RMB96.00**, with an upside of **11.2%**. The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in factory automation [6][10]. - **Hongfa (600885 CH)**: Current price **RMB25.74**, target price **RMB39.10**, with an upside of **51.9%**. Strong earnings momentum is anticipated due to new car model launches [6][10]. - **Shuanghuan (002472 CH)**: Current price **RMB51.31**, target price **RMB58.00**, with an upside of **13.0%**. Growth in smart drive units and robotic reducers is expected to drive future performance [6][10]. Risks and Considerations - **Inovance Risks**: Weaker-than-expected demand in automation and intense competition could impact margins [10]. - **Hongfa Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected relay demand and cost declines [10]. - **Shuanghuan Risks**: Risks include slower commercialization of humanoid robots and lower-than-expected market share gains [10]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of software development in the humanoid robot sector, indicating that while hardware costs are decreasing, the maturity of software solutions is critical for future growth [3][9]. - The anticipated growth in the humanoid robot market presents significant investment opportunities, particularly for companies that can innovate in both hardware and software [4][5].

Summary of Key Points from the Expert Call on DeepSeek and Embodied AI Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the **humanoid robot industry** and the role of **embodied AI** in enhancing the commercial value of humanoid robots [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Importance of Embodied AI**: Embodied AI is critical for humanoid robots, as it determines their intelligence and commercial value. The process involves four steps: sensing, decision-making, planning, and execution [2][3]. 2. **Sub-models of Humanoid Robots**: - **Strong Reasoning Model**: Enhances decision-making and planning, reducing model hallucinations [3]. - **Multi-modal Large Model**: Processes various types of information, allowing robots to perceive their environment [3]. - **World Model**: Provides a physical understanding of the world, improving human-robot interaction [4]. 3. **Challenges in Developing Embodied AI**: - **Data Collection Difficulties**: Obtaining physical world data is challenging, impacting model training and optimization. Simulated data is not yet viable for training due to discrepancies with real-world data [5]. - **Insufficient Reasoning Capabilities**: Current embodied AI models are in early development stages, lacking the reasoning capabilities needed for complex real-world interactions [6]. 4. **Technological Advancements from DeepSeek**: - **Chain-of-Thought Models**: DeepSeek's models improve decision-making and planning efficiency for humanoid robots [7][9]. - **Enhanced Understanding**: These models can surpass human experts in specific tasks, such as solving math and science problems [9]. - **Cost Efficiency**: DeepSeek's architecture reduces model parameters and training costs, accelerating the development of embodied AI [10][13]. 5. **Future Expectations**: - **Timeline for All-Purpose Humanoid Robots**: Full realization of all-purpose humanoid robots is projected to be 5-10 years away due to data collection and computational challenges [14]. - **Increased R&D Investment**: The breakthrough from DeepSeek is expected to boost R&D in specialized scenarios, enhancing technology advancements in embodied AI [14]. Value Chain Positioning 1. **Sensing and Data Collection**: Essential for humanoid robots to interact with their environment. Data collection factories are being established in major Chinese cities, benefiting sensor and dexterous hand companies [15]. 2. **Edge-side Computing Chips**: With the rise of edge-side embodied AI, there is a growing demand for chips that support this technology [17]. 3. **Motion Control Units**: As humanoid robots perform more complex tasks, the accuracy of motion control systems becomes increasingly critical [18]. Additional Important Insights - The emergence of strong inference models due to DeepSeek's advancements is expected to enhance market confidence in achieving embodied AI [14]. - The development of a positive ecosystem for embodied AI is being fostered by the use of DeepSeek datasets and methodologies by various edge-side models [12].