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高盛:TMT进入第二季度财报季的定位与资金流动笔记
Goldman Sachs· 2025-07-16 15:25
Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong positioning for the semiconductor sector, with Nvidia (NVDA) rated at 10 on a scale of 1-10, Microsoft (MSFT) at 9, and Meta (META) at 8.5, while Apple (AAPL) is rated at 4, indicating a significant underweight in the market [10][12][14][18]. Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is viewed as the cleanest expression of growing AI enthusiasm, with investor sentiment reaching new highs daily [2]. - Generalist inflows into the semiconductor group continue without signs of slowing, despite being well-held by various investor types [3]. - The internet sector is crowded, with notable year-to-date winners, but investors are now balancing high valuations against strong long-term narratives [4][5]. - The telecommunications/media sector has pockets of investor interest, with several companies like DIS and T showing increased long positions [6]. - Software sentiment is declining due to uncertainties surrounding the long-term impact of AI on enterprise/cloud software businesses [7]. - IT services and ad agencies are experiencing significant market negativity, with concerns about AI posing a cannibalistic threat [8]. Summary by Sector Semiconductors - The semiconductor sector is currently crowded with high investor interest, particularly in companies like NVDA, AVGO, TSM, and MU, which are among the most popular longs [19][20]. - The long/short ratio in this sector is at highs, consistent with positive market sentiment [19]. Internet - The internet sector has a high long/short ratio (~4.5x) but is in the middle of its recent range, indicating a balanced sentiment [24]. - Popular longs in this sector include META, SPOT, NFLX, and AMZN, while shorts include SNAP and LYFT [26]. Software - The software sector is experiencing a multi-year decrease in the long/short ratio, indicating negative sentiment [21][23]. - Popular longs include MSFT and ORCL, while shorts include ADBE and WDAY [23]. Telecommunications/Media - There is a notable increase in long positions in certain telecommunications/media stocks, despite the sector's historical negativity [6]. Overall Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with strong enthusiasm in semiconductors and internet sectors, while software and IT services face challenges due to AI-related uncertainties [7][8].