Companies in the private sector added just 22,000 jobs in January, payroll processing firm ADP said Wednesday. The figure is well below economists’ estimates of a gain of 48,000 jobs. The prior month's payrolls number was revised lower to a gain of 37,000 from an initially reported gain of 41,000."Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024," said ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. "While we've seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job ...

Group 1 - Private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, below economists' estimates of 47,000 jobs [1] - Previous month's payrolls revised to a loss of 29,000 from an initial loss of 32,000 [1] - Small establishments showed positive hiring at year-end, while large employers reduced hiring [1] Group 2 - Education and health services led job creation with 39,000 positions added in December [2] - Leisure and hospitality added 24,000 positions, while trade, transportation, and utilities added 11,000 [2] - Professional and business services lost 29,000 jobs, with information and manufacturing losing 12,000 and 5,000 positions respectively [2] Group 3 - Large businesses (500 or more employees) added 2,000 jobs, while businesses with 50 to 499 employees added 34,000 [3] - Establishments with fewer than 50 employees added 9,000 jobs [3] - Wage growth remained stable, with pay for those staying in their roles increasing by 4.4% year-over-year [3]

Labor Market Overview - The labor market is showing signs of stabilization, potentially indicating that the negative impact on payrolls was short-lived [1] - The recovery is tepid and slower compared to earlier in the year, suggesting cautious optimism rather than a full restoration of robust job gains [2] - Timing is crucial in understanding the complex and fast-moving labor market [2] Employment by Firm Size - Large companies account for a quarter or less of U S employment, highlighting the importance of small firms [3] - Most U S workers are employed by small firms, emphasizing the need to pay attention to this sector [3] Sector-Specific Trends - The services sector and manufacturing are still experiencing contraction in employment [4] - Trade, transportation, and utilities are showing job gains [4] - Healthcare is a strong and acyclical sector, driven by the aging population and increasing demand for healthcare services [4][5] - Leisure and hospitality are a concern, as hiring numbers in this sector are not as resilient as before [5][6] Economic Concerns - Consumer resilience has been fueling the economy, but a decline in resilience in the leisure and hospitality sector is a concern [6] - Announcements of cuts in big companies eventually trickle into the labor market [4]

Core Insights - The private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking a recovery from a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, with the trade, transportation, and utilities industry leading the growth [1][2] - Job growth was modest compared to earlier in the year, with ADP Chief Economist noting that this was the first job addition since July [2] - Year-over-year pay growth remained flat, with job-stayers seeing a 4.5% increase and job-changers at 6.7%, indicating a balance in supply and demand [3] Industry Performance - Five industries added jobs in October: - Trade, transportation, and utilities: +47,000 jobs - Education and health services: +26,000 jobs - Financial activities: +11,000 jobs - Natural resources and mining: +7,000 jobs - Construction: +5,000 jobs [6] - Five industries experienced job losses: - Information: -17,000 jobs - Professional and business services: -15,000 jobs - Other services: -13,000 jobs - Leisure and hospitality: -6,000 jobs - Manufacturing: -3,000 jobs [6] Establishment Size Impact - Only large establishments (500 or more employees) added jobs, contributing 73,000 jobs - Small businesses (1-49 employees) cut 10,000 jobs, while medium establishments (50-499 employees) reduced their workforce by 21,000 [7]

Group 1 - Private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding economists' estimates of 28,000 jobs [1] - Previous month's payrolls were revised from a loss of 32,000 to a loss of 29,000 [1] - Job creation in October marked the first increase since July, although hiring remains modest compared to earlier this year [2] Group 2 - Trade, transportation, and utilities led job creation with an addition of 47,000 positions [2] - Education and health services added 25,000 jobs, financial activities added 11,000, natural resources and mining contributed 7,000, and construction added 5,000 [2] Group 3 - Information sector lost 17,000 positions, professional and business services lost 15,000 jobs, and other services lost 14,000 [3] - Leisure and hospitality lost 5,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 3,000 [3] Group 4 - Pay growth has remained largely flat for over a year, indicating a balance in supply and demand [2]

Core Insights - The ADP Employment report revealed a surprising loss of 32,000 jobs in September, contrary to expectations of a 51,000 job gain, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn [2][3] - The report indicates a significant job loss concentrated in small and medium-sized businesses, with small establishments losing 40,000 jobs and medium-sized firms cutting 20,000 positions, while large businesses added 33,000 jobs [3][4] - A major downward revision of August's data from a 54,000 job gain to a 3,000 job loss has compounded the negative outlook, showing that private sector employment has declined in three of the last four months [4] Economic Implications - The weak employment report is likely to pressure the Federal Reserve to consider further monetary policy easing, with expectations of a potential quarter percent cut in the federal funds target at the upcoming October meeting [4] - The job market is described as "stagnant," suggesting that the report may support more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate the economy and consumption [4] Sector Performance - The service sector experienced the most significant job losses, with leisure and hospitality losing 19,000 jobs and professional and business services cutting 13,000 jobs, contributing to a concerning economic outlook [5]

Group 1 - The ADP report indicates a loss of 32,000 jobs, marking the worst performance in a significant period [1] - Goods producing jobs decreased by 3,000, with construction jobs down by 5,000 and manufacturing jobs down by 2,000 [1] - The service industry saw a loss of 28,000 jobs, with notable declines in leisure and hospitality (19,000) and professional and business services (13,000) [2] Group 2 - The only positive sector was education and health services, which added 33,000 jobs for the month [2] - Annual pay for job stayers increased by 4.5%, while those changing jobs received a raise of 6.5% [2] - The previous month's job loss was revised down from 54,000 to a negative 3,000, suggesting a potential shift in forecasts for upcoming non-farm payrolls [3]

Employment Contraction - ADP reports a significant contraction of 32,000 jobs, marking the worst performance in recent times [1] - Goods producing jobs declined by 3,000, with construction sector down by 5,000 and manufacturing down by 2,000 [1] - Service industry jobs decreased by 28,000 [1] - Leisure and hospitality sector experienced a loss of 19,000 jobs, while professional and business services declined by 13,000 [2] - Education and health services showed a positive trend, adding 33,000 jobs [2] Wage Trends - Annual pay for job stayers increased by 45%, while those changing jobs received a 65% raise [2] Data Revision and Forecasts - Last month's figures were revised down to a negative 3,000 job trade, contrasting with the initial 54,000 [3] - The industry anticipates potential revisions to non-farm payroll forecasts for Friday due to the unfavorable ADP data [3]

Core Insights - Employers are more inclined to train workers on artificial intelligence (AI) rather than replace them, according to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York [1][4] - A survey indicated an increase in AI usage among businesses, with minimal layoffs reported, as companies focus on retraining employees [2][3] AI Adoption and Workforce Impact - The survey revealed that while some companies reduced hiring due to AI, others increased hiring for positions requiring AI skills [2] - Predictions of AI-related layoffs were made by a few employers, but past survey data suggests that such expectations may not materialize [3] - AI usage varies significantly by industry, with over 50% of firms in information, finance, and professional services utilizing AI, while less than half in sectors like wholesale, leisure, and retail reported similar usage [3] Job Market Implications - The Federal Reserve researchers noted that the adjustments in workforce due to AI are unlikely to have major immediate effects on the job market, as the findings pertain only to 25-40% of firms using AI [4] - The overall impact on employment is expected to be modest, with both positive and negative effects possible [4]

Employment Data Analysis - ADP private payrolls increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 64,000 and reversing the previous month's negative figure [1] - June's ADP private payrolls were revised upwards to -23,000 from the initial -33,000 [2] - Small businesses saw an increase of 12,000 jobs, recovering from declines in the prior two months [2] - Leisure and hospitality sectors added 46,000 jobs [2] - Financial activities increased by 28,000 jobs [3] - Trade, transportation, and utilities rose by 18,000 jobs [3] - Education and health services experienced a decrease of 38,000 jobs [3] Wage Trends - Job stayers saw wage gains remaining unchanged at +44% [3] - Individuals changing jobs experienced a 7% raise, up two-tenths from the previous month [4] Economic Outlook - ADP's chief economist suggests that hiring and pay data indicate a healthy economy, with employers optimistic about consumer resilience [4] - The consensus estimate for the upcoming jobs report is 100,000 [5] - There is an anticipated slight increase in the unemployment rate [5] ADP Data Reliability - ADP data has shown an average absolute miss of 92,000 in recent months [6] - Over the course of a year, ADP data aligns well with overall trends [6] - BLS revises data more frequently than ADP [6] - Federal employment reductions may impact overall job market figures [7]