Industry Overview - U.S. holiday sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with an expected growth of 3.7-4.2% year over year, translating to sales of $1.01-$1.02 trillion [3] - Last year's holiday sales rose 4.3% year over year to $976.1 billion [3] - An uncertain macroeconomic outlook, influenced by trade policies and the ongoing government shutdown, has negatively impacted consumer confidence [1] Retailer Recommendations - Five retailers are recommended for investment during the holiday season: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Walmart Inc. (WMT), Tapestry Inc. (TPR), Dollar General Corp. (DG), and Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), all carrying a favorable Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [2] Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon is benefiting from growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS), which contributed $33.01 billion in Q3 2025, up 20.2% year over year [11] - Online sales and subscription revenues increased by 9.8% and 11.5% year over year, respectively, while advertising revenue climbed 23.5% [12] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 11.2% and 9.9%, respectively, with a 2.6% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [14] Walmart Inc. (WMT) - Walmart's diversified business model and strong omnichannel strategy have boosted traffic across physical and digital platforms [15] - The company has enhanced its delivery capabilities, including partnerships and new services, leading to steady grocery market share gains [16] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 4.4% and 12.5%, respectively, with a 0.7% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [17] Tapestry Inc. (TPR) - Tapestry is experiencing growth driven by strong engagement from Gen Z and millennials, with significant expansion in North America, Europe, and Greater China [18] - The company's international business saw a 10% year-over-year growth in Europe and an 18% surge in Greater China [19] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 3.4% and 9.5%, respectively, with a 1.6% improvement in earnings estimates over the last seven days [20] Dollar General Corp. (DG) - Dollar General's growth is supported by disciplined cost management and a customer-centric model, with a focus on value pricing and supply-chain optimization [21] - The company is expanding its omnichannel presence through partnerships, which is driving higher store traffic and basket sizes [22] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 4.2% and 8.4%, respectively, with a 0.8% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [24] Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) - Expedia benefits from a strong platform model that enhances customer insights and strengthens supplier relationships, driving revenue growth [25] - The company's diverse brand portfolio allows it to cater to a wide range of global traveler needs, boosting traffic and bookings [26] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 2% and 17.8%, respectively, with a 1.2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [26]

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. A Harvard Business School student once told Jeff Bezos that Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) had little chance against traditional retailers and should sell to Barnes & Noble and cash in while he could. A 1997 Classroom Doubts The E-Commerce Upstart The moment, which dates back to 1997, recounted in Brad Stone's 2013 book "The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon," captured the skepticism facin ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in consumer enthusiasm for the Double Eleven shopping festival and the need for e-commerce platforms to adopt new business models to enhance consumer shopping experiences [1][3] - The "Universal Subsidy Model" has gained popularity among private domain platforms, encouraging consumer spending and aiding merchants in customer acquisition [1][3] Market Pain Points - The current market faces dual challenges: consumers are hesitant to spend due to economic pressures, and merchants struggle with high customer acquisition costs and shrinking profit margins, creating a vicious cycle [4] - Traditional marketing methods are proving inadequate, necessitating innovative solutions to break this cycle [3][4] Universal Subsidy Model Mechanism - The Universal Subsidy Model operates on the principle of "positive distribution, increasing shares," which contrasts with traditional models that often lead to diminishing returns [7] - Subsidy rules stipulate that once a platform's performance reaches a baseline, subsidies begin and do not decrease with subsequent rounds, with performance growth triggering additional subsidies [8] - For example, if the initial performance is 1000, subsequent rounds increase by 15%, leading to a cumulative effect on the subsidy pool [9] Core Advantages of the Universal Subsidy Model - The model features an innovative profit-sharing mechanism that increases subsidy amounts as platform performance grows, fostering a sustainable growth cycle [15] - A comprehensive recruitment system allows for rapid market expansion through various promotional levels, enhancing market coverage [15] - The model enhances customer retention and repurchase rates by providing merchants with additional revenue opportunities through customer locking strategies [16] - It creates a complete commercial loop where consumer spending generates assets, ensuring long-term platform viability [16] Multi-Party Benefits - Consumers benefit from increased subsidies with higher spending, receiving shopping vouchers that appreciate in value as the platform grows [18] - Merchants can convert discounts into digital assets, optimizing marketing costs and achieving long-term revenue through customer loyalty [18] - Platforms can rapidly accumulate users and transaction volumes, laying the groundwork for potential public offerings [18] - Promoters can earn commissions based on performance without upfront investment, making it a low-risk, high-reward entrepreneurial model [18] Compliance and Security - The model emphasizes compliance and security, incorporating a scientific growth mechanism to stabilize subsidy distribution and prevent volatility [20] - Consumer vouchers can only be used for purchases within the platform, mitigating risks associated with cashing out [20] - The model limits promotional levels to avoid legal risks associated with multi-level marketing [20] - Funds are managed separately to ensure transaction traceability and protect consumer rights [20] Suitable Business Types - The Universal Subsidy Model is particularly suitable for e-commerce platforms seeking differentiation, physical chains aiming to enhance customer loyalty, regional leaders looking to consolidate local resources, and companies planning for public offerings [22] Conclusion - The Universal Subsidy Model addresses the shortcomings of traditional models by fostering a sustainable growth ecosystem that benefits consumers, merchants, and platforms alike, providing a pathway for businesses to navigate current economic challenges [30]

Core Viewpoint - The future of traditional brick-and-mortar stores is bleak unless they adapt and transform, as the trend towards e-commerce is inevitable [2][3]. Group 1: Challenges Facing Brick-and-Mortar Stores - The decline of physical stores is attributed to two main factors: high rent and the rise of e-commerce [5]. - The closing rate of physical stores in China is projected to reach 37% by 2025, with an average of 28 stores shutting down every hour [7]. - The physical presence of stores is increasingly seen as an unnecessary cost, with only a few surviving stores likely to become luxury experiences in the future [7]. Group 2: E-commerce Growth - By 2024, the number of online shopping users in China is expected to reach 974 million, accounting for 87.9% of internet users [7]. - The shift from traditional retail to online shopping is also observed in Japan, where the e-commerce market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14.3% from 2025 to 2030 [7]. Group 3: Need for Adaptation - There is a call for support to help traditional store owners transition from outdated business models, rather than solely blaming e-commerce for their struggles [5]. - The concept of combining online sales with offline experiences is suggested, but the advent of AI may render even these experiences redundant [7].