watch nowWhile discounts drive purchasing in the early days of the holiday shopping season, consumers are shifting into more thoughtful, quality gifts in the back half of the season as total spending growth slows.U.S. consumers had spent $187.3 billion so far online between Nov. 1 and Dec. 12, up 6.1% from the same stretch last year, according to Adobe Analytics. Total holiday season e-commerce spend is still expected to cross $253 billion, which would be 5.3% above last year, with the growth rate slowing l ...

Industry Overview - U.S. holiday sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, with an expected growth of 3.7-4.2% year over year, translating to sales of $1.01-$1.02 trillion [3] - Last year's holiday sales rose 4.3% year over year to $976.1 billion [3] - An uncertain macroeconomic outlook, influenced by trade policies and the ongoing government shutdown, has negatively impacted consumer confidence [1] Retailer Recommendations - Five retailers are recommended for investment during the holiday season: Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Walmart Inc. (WMT), Tapestry Inc. (TPR), Dollar General Corp. (DG), and Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE), all carrying a favorable Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [2] Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Amazon is benefiting from growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS), which contributed $33.01 billion in Q3 2025, up 20.2% year over year [11] - Online sales and subscription revenues increased by 9.8% and 11.5% year over year, respectively, while advertising revenue climbed 23.5% [12] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 11.2% and 9.9%, respectively, with a 2.6% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [14] Walmart Inc. (WMT) - Walmart's diversified business model and strong omnichannel strategy have boosted traffic across physical and digital platforms [15] - The company has enhanced its delivery capabilities, including partnerships and new services, leading to steady grocery market share gains [16] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 4.4% and 12.5%, respectively, with a 0.7% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [17] Tapestry Inc. (TPR) - Tapestry is experiencing growth driven by strong engagement from Gen Z and millennials, with significant expansion in North America, Europe, and Greater China [18] - The company's international business saw a 10% year-over-year growth in Europe and an 18% surge in Greater China [19] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 3.4% and 9.5%, respectively, with a 1.6% improvement in earnings estimates over the last seven days [20] Dollar General Corp. (DG) - Dollar General's growth is supported by disciplined cost management and a customer-centric model, with a focus on value pricing and supply-chain optimization [21] - The company is expanding its omnichannel presence through partnerships, which is driving higher store traffic and basket sizes [22] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 4.2% and 8.4%, respectively, with a 0.8% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 60 days [24] Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) - Expedia benefits from a strong platform model that enhances customer insights and strengthens supplier relationships, driving revenue growth [25] - The company's diverse brand portfolio allows it to cater to a wide range of global traveler needs, boosting traffic and bookings [26] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for next year are 2% and 17.8%, respectively, with a 1.2% improvement in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [26]

Core Insights - Amazon.com Inc. has evolved from a young e-commerce startup in 1997 to a global retail powerhouse, significantly expanding into various sectors including cloud computing, advertising, logistics, entertainment, and devices, while Barnes & Noble has focused on reviving its brick-and-mortar presence [2][3][5] Company Evolution - In 1997, skepticism surrounded Amazon's potential, with advice suggesting it should sell to Barnes & Noble, which was a dominant player at the time [2][3] - Amazon chose to invest in technology and infrastructure, launching key services like Amazon Prime in 2005 and Amazon Web Services in 2006, which transformed enterprise computing [5][6] - The acquisition of Whole Foods in 2017 and the MGM deal in 2022 further diversified Amazon's offerings, particularly in groceries and streaming content [5] Market Position - Amazon has established itself as a major operator across multiple industries, while Barnes & Noble is exploring an IPO after a decade of declining sales, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the decline in consumer enthusiasm for the Double Eleven shopping festival and the need for e-commerce platforms to adopt new business models to enhance consumer shopping experiences [1][3] - The "Universal Subsidy Model" has gained popularity among private domain platforms, encouraging consumer spending and aiding merchants in customer acquisition [1][3] Market Pain Points - The current market faces dual challenges: consumers are hesitant to spend due to economic pressures, and merchants struggle with high customer acquisition costs and shrinking profit margins, creating a vicious cycle [4] - Traditional marketing methods are proving inadequate, necessitating innovative solutions to break this cycle [3][4] Universal Subsidy Model Mechanism - The Universal Subsidy Model operates on the principle of "positive distribution, increasing shares," which contrasts with traditional models that often lead to diminishing returns [7] - Subsidy rules stipulate that once a platform's performance reaches a baseline, subsidies begin and do not decrease with subsequent rounds, with performance growth triggering additional subsidies [8] - For example, if the initial performance is 1000, subsequent rounds increase by 15%, leading to a cumulative effect on the subsidy pool [9] Core Advantages of the Universal Subsidy Model - The model features an innovative profit-sharing mechanism that increases subsidy amounts as platform performance grows, fostering a sustainable growth cycle [15] - A comprehensive recruitment system allows for rapid market expansion through various promotional levels, enhancing market coverage [15] - The model enhances customer retention and repurchase rates by providing merchants with additional revenue opportunities through customer locking strategies [16] - It creates a complete commercial loop where consumer spending generates assets, ensuring long-term platform viability [16] Multi-Party Benefits - Consumers benefit from increased subsidies with higher spending, receiving shopping vouchers that appreciate in value as the platform grows [18] - Merchants can convert discounts into digital assets, optimizing marketing costs and achieving long-term revenue through customer loyalty [18] - Platforms can rapidly accumulate users and transaction volumes, laying the groundwork for potential public offerings [18] - Promoters can earn commissions based on performance without upfront investment, making it a low-risk, high-reward entrepreneurial model [18] Compliance and Security - The model emphasizes compliance and security, incorporating a scientific growth mechanism to stabilize subsidy distribution and prevent volatility [20] - Consumer vouchers can only be used for purchases within the platform, mitigating risks associated with cashing out [20] - The model limits promotional levels to avoid legal risks associated with multi-level marketing [20] - Funds are managed separately to ensure transaction traceability and protect consumer rights [20] Suitable Business Types - The Universal Subsidy Model is particularly suitable for e-commerce platforms seeking differentiation, physical chains aiming to enhance customer loyalty, regional leaders looking to consolidate local resources, and companies planning for public offerings [22] Conclusion - The Universal Subsidy Model addresses the shortcomings of traditional models by fostering a sustainable growth ecosystem that benefits consumers, merchants, and platforms alike, providing a pathway for businesses to navigate current economic challenges [30]

Core Viewpoint - The future of traditional brick-and-mortar stores is bleak unless they adapt and transform, as the trend towards e-commerce is inevitable [2][3]. Group 1: Challenges Facing Brick-and-Mortar Stores - The decline of physical stores is attributed to two main factors: high rent and the rise of e-commerce [5]. - The closing rate of physical stores in China is projected to reach 37% by 2025, with an average of 28 stores shutting down every hour [7]. - The physical presence of stores is increasingly seen as an unnecessary cost, with only a few surviving stores likely to become luxury experiences in the future [7]. Group 2: E-commerce Growth - By 2024, the number of online shopping users in China is expected to reach 974 million, accounting for 87.9% of internet users [7]. - The shift from traditional retail to online shopping is also observed in Japan, where the e-commerce market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14.3% from 2025 to 2030 [7]. Group 3: Need for Adaptation - There is a call for support to help traditional store owners transition from outdated business models, rather than solely blaming e-commerce for their struggles [5]. - The concept of combining online sales with offline experiences is suggested, but the advent of AI may render even these experiences redundant [7].