Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for India's quick-commerce sector, projecting significant growth in the coming years [36][48]. Core Insights - India's retail landscape has dramatically shifted towards online shopping, particularly in quick commerce, driven by smartphone adoption and the COVID-19 pandemic [2][4]. - Quick commerce in India has evolved from a niche market to a major retail channel, with gross order value expected to reach approximately Rs. 65,645.40 crore (US$ 7.4 billion) by FY25, representing a 24-fold increase from 2022 [4][36]. - The convenience of instant delivery has led to increased overall consumption, with 6-8% of purchases being incremental demand among households using quick commerce [5][21]. Market Growth and Trends - Quick commerce services have expanded beyond metro cities into tier-2 and tier-3 towns, with urban consumers' preference for online shopping rising from 33% to 87% [5][22]. - Major players in the quick-commerce space include Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy Instamart, Dunzo Daily, and BigBasket Daily, each employing different business models such as inventory-led, hyperlocal partner, and marketplace multi-vendor [7][10][12]. - Revenue models are diversifying, with seller commissions making up 68-74% of revenues, while delivery fees and advertising contribute an additional 9-13% [16][43]. Consumer Behavior - Quick commerce has fundamentally changed shopping habits, with consumers increasingly favoring convenience and instant gratification [17][21]. - Categories such as impulse goods and premium products are seeing higher adoption rates, indicating a trend towards premiumization in consumer purchases [21][42]. Technology and Infrastructure - Key enablers for quick commerce growth include smartphone penetration, digital payment systems, and advanced logistics networks [24][25][28]. - The integration of technology such as AI for demand forecasting and real-time inventory management is crucial for operational efficiency [41][43]. Economic Impact - Quick commerce is creating significant employment opportunities, with approximately 62-64 jobs generated for every Rs. 100 crore (US$ 11.3 million) of gross merchandise value [31][34]. - The sector is attracting substantial investments, contributing to retail market expansion and indicating rising consumer demand [35][36]. Future Outlook - Analysts project that India's quick-commerce GMV could reach about Rs. 310,485.00 crore (US$ 35 billion) by 2030, indicating sustained double- or triple-digit growth rates [36][38]. - The expansion of quick commerce is expected to include non-food categories, with companies diversifying their product offerings [42][48]. - The sector's future will depend on increasing reach into smaller cities and enhancing economic models, while sustainability and profitability remain key challenges [44][45].

Core Insights - Deepinder Goyal, co-founder and CEO of Zomato and its parent company Eternal, is stepping down and passing the leadership to Albinder Dhindsa, CEO of Blinkit, while remaining as vice chairman on the board [1][2] - Goyal emphasizes that this change in title does not reflect a decrease in commitment to the company's outcomes, stating that Eternal remains his life's work [2] - The leadership transition occurs as Eternal reports significant growth, with profits increasing approximately 73% to ₹1.02 billion (around $11.13 million) and adjusted revenue rising 190% to ₹166.92 billion (about $1.8 billion) year-over-year [3] Company Developments - Zomato, co-founded by Goyal and Pankaj Chaddah in 2008, initially started as a restaurant discovery platform and has since expanded into food delivery and quick commerce [2][3] - The company has strengthened its market position by acquiring Uber Eats' India business in 2020 and Blinkit for $568 million in 2022 [3] - Blinkit has emerged as the fastest-growing segment within Eternal, with net order value increasing 121% to ₹133.0 billion (approximately $1.45 billion) in the last quarter [4] Industry Context - The shift in leadership may indicate Blinkit's growing importance within Eternal, as the company's growth trajectory is increasingly leaning towards quick commerce rather than traditional food delivery [5] - The quick commerce sector in India is experiencing rapid growth, although it faces scrutiny regarding the working conditions of gig workers, prompting the labor ministry to request changes in marketing practices and improvements in delivery personnel conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian quick commerce industry is undergoing a significant shift as major platforms like Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and Zepto remove the "10-minute delivery" promise from their branding, reflecting a maturation of the market and a focus on worker safety and sustainable practices [1][16][17] Industry Response - Blinkit has revised its tagline from "10,000+ products delivered in 10 minutes" to "30,000+ products delivered at your doorstep," with other platforms expected to follow suit [1][16] - The government's intervention was prompted by nationwide strikes from gig worker unions, highlighting concerns over worker safety and the pressures of extreme delivery promises [2][16] Marketing and Operational Implications - The "10-minute delivery" claim was never a contractual guarantee, and actual delivery times are dynamic, influenced by various factors [5][16] - Executives believe that removing the tagline will not materially impact operations, as deliveries can still be completed in four to five minutes in urban areas [6][16] - The removal of the tagline is seen as an optics-driven change rather than a fundamental alteration to business operations, allowing companies to focus on consistency rather than aggressive marketing [7][8] Competitive Landscape - Despite the removal of the explicit promise, competition among quick commerce platforms is expected to remain intense, as speed is crucial for maintaining market share against traditional e-commerce players [9][16] - The absence of a strict time benchmark may shift competitive focus from speed to reliability, service quality, and product assortment [10][16] Market Growth Potential - The Indian quick commerce industry is projected to grow from $6 billion in FY25 to $47 billion by FY30, with market penetration in top cities increasing significantly [12][16] - The number of dark stores is expected to triple to 7,500 by 2030, supporting the industry's expansion beyond groceries into various product categories [12][13][16] Future Outlook - The decision to drop the 10-minute delivery promise signifies a shift towards prioritizing execution, safety, and sustainability in the quick commerce sector [14][17] - Companies may increasingly rely on localized campaigns and operational efficiency rather than dramatic delivery claims to attract customers in less penetrated markets [13][16]

Industry Overview - The Indian quick-commerce industry has continued to grow during and after the pandemic, with a focus on rapid delivery times and an expanding range of products available for instant gratification, unlike similar trends in the US where many companies failed post-lockdown [1][9] - Major players in the market, such as Blinkit, Swiggy Instamart, and Zepto, have heavily invested in dark stores to meet consumer demand for quick deliveries, with projections indicating a threefold increase in dark stores by 2030 [9] Labor Issues - A recent flash strike involving over 200,000 gig workers highlighted ongoing concerns regarding fair pay, safety, and working conditions, with demands for an end to the 10-minute delivery mandate [8][9] - The average earnings for gig workers, such as those at Blinkit, are reported to be around 102 rupees ($1.13) per hour, translating to approximately 21,000 rupees monthly for full-time work, but actual working days are significantly lower, raising questions about the sustainability of these earnings [5][6] Market Dynamics - The quick-commerce model faces challenges as regulatory changes could force consumers to be more patient, potentially undermining the business model before it becomes profitable [5][9] - Despite the high demand for delivery services, the labor market remains saturated, with many gig workers not achieving the earnings targets set by the platforms, indicating a disconnect between expected and actual income [6][7] Future Projections - The gig economy in India is expected to grow to 23.5 million workers by 2030, reflecting a significant increase in the labor force engaged in this sector [7] - Comparisons with China's gig economy suggest that without government intervention, the current model may lead to precarious working conditions for gig workers, despite the consumer benefits [7][9]

Core Insights - The quick commerce sector in India is facing a potential shakeout as funding dries up, with companies needing to reassess their business models and losses [1][4] - Despite challenges, Blinkit aims to thrive and expand, focusing on logistics efficiency and local supply chains [1][8] Industry Overview - Global investors have heavily invested in the quick commerce sector, making it a focal point for rapid delivery experiments, although similar ventures in other regions have struggled [2] - The Indian market benefits from dense cities, lower labor costs, and digital payments, but the sustainability of the business model relies on logistics and capital access [2][7] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Swiggy and Zepto are raising significant funds, indicating the high cash requirements for rapid delivery services [3][6] - The entry of major players like Amazon and Walmart has intensified competition, complicating the operational landscape due to fragmented supply chains and cold chain limitations [7] Company Strategy - Blinkit is focusing on expanding into categories where it can address operational challenges and is shifting procurement towards local entrepreneurs to build infrastructure [8][9] - The company is committed to sustainable growth, avoiding excessive discounting that could harm long-term economics [10] Future Outlook - A sector reset is anticipated as companies align their ambitions with capital costs and supply chain complexities, potentially leading to consolidation and refined strategies [11] - The quick commerce market in India is unique, with rapid scaling potential but also high competitive cash burns, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Indian consumer market, particularly evaluating the anticipated recovery in consumption for the festive season of 3Q F26 [1][2]. - The analysis is based on three data points: UPI transaction data, app usage data for e-commerce, and management commentary from 2Q F26 conference calls [1]. Core Insights - **UPI Transaction Data**: - UPI transactions now account for approximately 39% of India's Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) [2][21]. - The growth in UPI transactions has been slowing, indicating that the increase is reflective of underlying category growth rather than merely a shift in payment methods [2]. - No consumption category is showing definitive festive momentum, with most categories experiencing lower YoY growth in October 2025 compared to 2Q F26 [3][28]. - **E-commerce and Quick Commerce Trends**: - Quick Commerce platforms like Blinkit, JioMart, and BigBasket are experiencing significant DAU growth of 70-200% during the festive period, while traditional e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Flipkart are seeing declines [4][58]. - Food delivery services have shown muted DAU growth, with Domino's being the strongest performer in the food services space [5][66]. - **Management Commentary**: - Mixed sentiments from management across sectors: - Food Services/QSRs reported better-than-expected trends but remain cautious due to a challenging demand environment [6][70]. - FMCG companies faced temporary disruptions due to GST changes but expect recovery in H2 [6][71]. - Fashion retail saw strong festive traction, with expectations of continued momentum into the wedding season [6][70]. - Jewellery companies reported record festive sales, indicating strong confidence in sustaining momentum [6][73]. - Alcohol brands are showing early signs of recovery, with October performing better than previous months [6][74]. Investment Implications - There is insufficient evidence to suggest a broad-based consumption revival in 3Q F26 despite government interventions [7]. - Categories such as jewellery, alcohol, and fast food are showing some festive growth momentum [7]. - Consumer preference for digital channels, particularly Quick Commerce, remains strong [7]. Additional Insights - **Category Performance**: - Essentials like grocery and general merchandise show stable growth, while discretionary categories like electronics and fashion retail are experiencing significant declines [28]. - Liquor and department stores are outperforming other categories, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [28]. - **DAU Trends**: - The analysis of DAU growth around Diwali indicates that Quick Commerce is becoming a structural consumption channel, while traditional e-commerce platforms are struggling [58][59]. - **Management Outlook**: - Companies across various sectors are cautiously optimistic about the upcoming months, with expectations of improved performance post-Diwali and during the wedding season [70][72]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the Indian consumer market, sector-specific insights, and management outlooks.

Summary of Meituan's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Meituan (3690.HK) - **Industry**: E-commerce and Food Delivery Key Points and Arguments Competitive Landscape and Unit Economics - Meituan is confident in achieving long-term EBIT of Rmb1 per order by maintaining a unit economics advantage over peers, driven by: 1. Higher commission revenue per order from increased Average Order Value (AOV) 2. Lower subsidy rates due to a higher-quality user mix 3. Reduced delivery costs per order from greater order density and improved algorithms - The rider cost advantage has narrowed due to increased competition and volume growth during the subsidy war [5][6] Order Volume Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 10% growth in order volume for Q4 2025 and 6% for FY 2026, anticipating a gradual reduction in subsidies post-Singles Day festival [5][6] Instashopping Growth Outlook - Instashopping maintains leading market share in order volume and Gross Transaction Value (GTV), with a projected order volume growth of 31% for Q4 2025, despite a sequentially larger operating loss of -Rmb1.6 billion due to investments for user experience enhancement [5][6] In-store Competition and Margin Trajectory - The in-store segment faces evolving competition, leading to a decline in EBIT margins due to slower liquor demand and reduced spending from fast food chains [6] - Long-term EBIT margin for the in-store, hotel, and travel (IHT) segment is expected to stabilize at 30-35% [6] Overseas Expansion and New Initiatives - Meituan plans to prioritize resource allocation for overseas expansion in Kuwait, UAE, and Brazil, while maintaining investment levels for new initiatives in FY 2026 [6] - Forecasted losses for Keeta's expansion are projected at -Rmb3.9 billion for Q4 2025 and -Rmb8.0 billion for FY 2026 [6] Price Target and Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on Meituan with a 12-month price target of HK$120, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the current price of HK$99.55 [12][15] Important but Overlooked Content - Key downside risks include: - Increased competition affecting growth and profit turnaround - Labor cost inflation and operational efficiencies - Food safety concerns and stricter regulations - Higher-than-expected investments in Keeta [8][14] Financial Projections - Group revenue is projected to grow from Rmb337.6 billion in 2023 to Rmb408.1 billion in 2026, with an expected adjusted EBIT margin recovery over the next few years [11][15] Conclusion - Meituan is positioned to leverage its competitive advantages in the food delivery and e-commerce sectors, with a focus on maintaining unit economics and expanding into new markets while managing risks associated with competition and operational costs.

Group 1: Market Outlook - Global investors are returning to explore bottom-up stock opportunities after 4-5 years of being on the sidelines, indicating a shift in foreign investor behavior [2][18] - India's valuations remain elevated, particularly in the autos, consumption, and industrial sectors, but pressure is easing as global markets correct and corporate earnings stabilize [2][18] - The Nifty's latest quarter showed 8-10% PAT growth, but margins remain soft; markets are expected to break out of consolidation only if earnings shift toward higher double-digit growth [6][18] Group 2: Sector Analysis - UBS remains positive on the BFSI sector, recommending a stock-specific approach rather than a PSU versus private lens; both private and PSU banks are seen as strong, with growth differentiation being key [8][18] - In the consumption sector, segments like jewellery and quick commerce are attractive, while some FMCG and auto names appear stretched [10][18] - The power and energy profit pool expansion is underestimated, with private corporate capex steady as a share of GDP, although a repeat of the 2003-07 boom is not expected [11][18] Group 3: Emerging Trends - Quick commerce is viewed as a high-growth area, with improving unit economics and faster dark-store expansion even in smaller markets [13][18] - Traditional auto manufacturers with limited EV exposure may underperform, and caution is advised in this sector [14][18] - India is not yet part of the global AI boom due to a lack of large capex-heavy AI infrastructure players; focus should be on how IT services adapt and which sectors adopt AI fastest [15][18] Group 4: IPO Market - Global investors are cautious but not worried about the exuberance in India's IPO market, viewing it as a small slice of their exposure; participation in IPOs does not significantly impact core investment strategies [16][18] - Despite global uncertainties and high valuations, India's narrative remains strong and diversified, with a bottom-up market approach being more appealing than a concentrated top-down strategy [16][18]

Core Insights - India's digital marketing industry has been historically dominated by Meta and Google, which together account for over ₹50,000 crore in annual advertisement revenue, representing 70-90% of the total market share [2][3] - The rise of retail media, particularly in e-commerce and quick commerce, is beginning to disrupt this duopoly, with companies like Amazon and Flipkart generating significant ad revenues [2][3] - The retail media business in India is estimated to be worth $1.5-2.0 billion in 2024, growing to 18% of the total digital advertising market valued at ₹70,000 crore [3][4] Digital Advertising Landscape - Google and Meta's combined advertisement revenue is over ₹53,000 crore, highlighting their dominance in the digital ad space [2] - Retail media is becoming a crucial component of digital advertising, with brands increasingly valuing ads that lead directly to purchases [3][4] - The Trade Desk is emerging as a key player in the retail data space, providing a cross-platform ad layer that leverages first-party data from various retail platforms [4][5] Retail Media Growth - Retail media is now a routine aspect of online advertising, with platforms like Amazon and Flipkart leading the charge [4][5] - The Trade Desk's retail data product allows brands to target users across multiple platforms, enhancing the effectiveness of advertising campaigns [8][9] - Partnerships with companies like BigBasket, Zepto, and Swiggy are expanding the reach and capabilities of retail data utilization [9][12] Data Utilization - Retail data is seen as a valuable asset for brands, enabling them to tailor campaigns based on consumer behavior across different platforms [6][8] - The potential for retail data to enhance advertising strategies is significant, as it allows for more precise targeting and measurement of campaign effectiveness [10][12] - The growth of online retail in smaller cities is expected to enrich the data available for advertisers, further driving the retail media market [11] Future Outlook - As advertising costs on traditional platforms like Google and Meta rise, brands are likely to shift focus towards retail media and first-party data [15] - The evolving landscape of digital advertising suggests that retail data could become a substantial part of India's digital advertising ecosystem [15]

Core Insights - Zepto has raised $400 million in a funding round led by CalPERS, with participation from existing investors, and plans to go public next year [1] - The startup has experienced significant growth, increasing daily orders from 500,000 to 1.7 million over five quarters [5] - The quick commerce market in India is projected to grow substantially, with estimates reaching $42 billion by 2030 and $100 billion in a decade [8] Funding and Investment - The recent funding round is a mix of primary and secondary investments, indicating strong investor confidence [1] - Zepto has raised a total of $1.3 billion in funding over several months last year, showcasing its aggressive growth strategy [2] Competitive Landscape - Zepto competes with other quick commerce players like BlinkIt, Swiggy Instamart, and Tata-owned BigBasket, all of which are part of publicly listed companies [2] - The company also faces competition from established e-commerce giants like Flipkart and Amazon, which have launched their own quick commerce services [3] Market Trends - The quick commerce market in India is showing positive signs, with a shift towards rapid delivery services for groceries and other products [8] - Startups are exploring verticalized e-commerce offerings, with various players focusing on specific niches such as food delivery and apparel [4] Operational Performance - Zepto's CEO highlighted the company's ability to turn dark stores profitable while acquiring over 10 million new monthly transacting users [6] - Despite challenges, Zepto Cafe has a run rate of over $110 million and is experiencing rapid growth, although operations were paused in 44 cities due to staffing issues [7]