Core Insights - Retail sales volumes in September increased unexpectedly by 0.5% month-on-month, driven by strong performance in tech stores and heightened demand for gold [1] Group 1 - The increase in retail sales volumes indicates a positive trend in consumer spending [1] - Tech stores played a significant role in boosting sales, suggesting a robust demand for technology products [1] - The demand for gold also contributed to the rise in retail sales, reflecting consumer interest in precious metals [1]

UK retail sales unexpectedly grew for a fourth straight month, providing a glimmer of hope after recent data pointed to a cooling economy https://t.co/faemRVQjDS ...

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts likely posted further gains in September [1] - The rise in retail sales probably reflected higher prices [1]

Retail Sales Performance - UK retail sales experienced stronger than expected growth in August [1] - The growth rounded off a summer of mild growth for the retail sector [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically macroeconomic indicators such as industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales for August 2023 [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP) Forecast**: - Expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year (yoy) in August, up from 5.7% yoy in July, driven by improved manufacturing PMIs and a significant increase in steel production and demand [5][6]. - The forecast indicates a month-over-month annualized growth of 6.9% for August, contrasting with a decline of 3.2% in July [5]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) Outlook**: - Anticipated to remain sluggish with a forecast of -3.0% yoy in August, an improvement from -5.2% yoy in July [6]. - Factors contributing to this sluggishness include adverse weather conditions and local restrictions on construction activities due to the military parade on September 3 [6]. 3. **Retail Sales Projection**: - Expected to decline to 3.2% yoy in August from 3.7% yoy in July, influenced by falling automobile sales growth (4.6% in August from 7.3% in July) and a slowdown in home appliance sales [6]. - The decline is attributed to the diminishing effectiveness of the consumer goods trade-in program and increased funding shortages [6]. 4. **Market Consensus Comparison**: - The forecasts for IP are above market consensus (6.2% vs. 5.6% yoy), while those for FAI and retail sales are below consensus expectations [6]. Additional Important Insights - The macro data for August appears mixed, with improvements in official and unofficial PMIs, but slower growth in exports and imports [2]. - Year-on-year PPI deflation has eased due to "anti-involution" policies aimed at curbing price competition, while CPI inflation has turned negative due to deeper food deflation [2]. - High-frequency trackers indicate stable growth momentum in August compared to July, despite sectoral divergences [2]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the anticipated economic indicators for China in August 2023.

Economic Data Overview - U.S. Retail Sales for July increased by 0.5%, down from a revised 0.9% in June, which was the second-highest level of the year [2] - Excluding auto sales, Retail Sales were also in line with estimates at +0.3%, a decrease from the upwardly revised +0.8% in June [2][3] - Core Retail Sales (Control print) for July was +0.5%, down from the revised +0.8% in June, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Import and Export Prices - July Import Prices rose by 0.4%, significantly above the consensus estimate of 0.0%, marking the highest level since April 2024 [4] - Year-over-year, Import Prices have remained at -0.2% for three consecutive months [4] - Exports for July increased by only 0.1%, down from +0.5% in June, with year-over-year growth decreasing from +2.6% to +2.2% [5] Trade Dynamics - The increase in Import Prices suggests that U.S. trading partners are not absorbing tariff costs, as higher prices indicate a lack of downward trend [6] - The current trade situation reflects a challenge, with rising Import Prices and declining Export values [5][6] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Empire State Index for August reported a higher-than-expected figure of 11.9, marking the second-highest month since November of the previous year [7] - This is the second consecutive positive reading after four months of negative results, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector [7] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is on track to maintain its winning streak, achieving record closing highs throughout the week [8] - Upcoming economic data releases and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are anticipated to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding potential Fed rate cuts [8][9]

Retail Sales & Inflation - UK retail sales increase in July was driven by inflation rather than demand [1] - British Retail Consortium reported the sales increase [1]

UK retail sales partially bounced back in June as Britons basked in heat wave conditions, adding to signs that the economy recovered from back-to-back monthly contractions during the spring https://t.co/FZZxMD6lC4 ...