11 September 2025 | 10:39PM HKT China: August activity data preview: Expecting above-consensus IP and below-consensus FAI and retail sales Bottom line: August activity data – including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI) and retail sales – will be released next Monday (15 September). Our forecasts are above market consensus for IP, but below for FAI and retail sales. Specifically, we expect IP growth to rise to 6.2% yoy in August from 5.7% yoy in July, reflecting the improvement in manu ...

Economic Data Overview - U.S. Retail Sales for July increased by 0.5%, down from a revised 0.9% in June, which was the second-highest level of the year [2] - Excluding auto sales, Retail Sales were also in line with estimates at +0.3%, a decrease from the upwardly revised +0.8% in June [2][3] - Core Retail Sales (Control print) for July was +0.5%, down from the revised +0.8% in June, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Import and Export Prices - July Import Prices rose by 0.4%, significantly above the consensus estimate of 0.0%, marking the highest level since April 2024 [4] - Year-over-year, Import Prices have remained at -0.2% for three consecutive months [4] - Exports for July increased by only 0.1%, down from +0.5% in June, with year-over-year growth decreasing from +2.6% to +2.2% [5] Trade Dynamics - The increase in Import Prices suggests that U.S. trading partners are not absorbing tariff costs, as higher prices indicate a lack of downward trend [6] - The current trade situation reflects a challenge, with rising Import Prices and declining Export values [5][6] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Empire State Index for August reported a higher-than-expected figure of 11.9, marking the second-highest month since November of the previous year [7] - This is the second consecutive positive reading after four months of negative results, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing sector [7] Market Outlook - The S&P 500 is on track to maintain its winning streak, achieving record closing highs throughout the week [8] - Upcoming economic data releases and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium are anticipated to influence market sentiment, particularly regarding potential Fed rate cuts [8][9]

A rise in UK retail sales in July was driven by an uptick in inflation rather than demand, according to the British Retail Consortium https://t.co/qkPJzRWFhO ...

UK retail sales partially bounced back in June as Britons basked in heat wave conditions, adding to signs that the economy recovered from back-to-back monthly contractions during the spring https://t.co/FZZxMD6lC4 ...