Consumer Behavior Insights - The current consumer landscape is characterized by a bifurcated market, with affluent consumers trading down while lower-income consumers face financial strain [1][11] - Companies like Walmart and McDonald's illustrate the varying performance across different market segments, with McDonald's reporting that 30% of US transactions involve extra value meals [2][3] Stock Performance - Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster, saw a 10% drop in stock price after missing earnings expectations, reflecting broader market challenges [5] - Trex, a decking company, experienced a 25% decline in stock value, indicating struggles in the housing market, which remains locked due to high mortgage rates [7] Market Trends - Heavy discounting is expected during the holiday season, which may pressure profit margins for retailers like Best Buy and Dick's Sporting Goods [8] - The housing market is constrained, with mortgage rates unlikely to fall below 6%, leading to a situation where homeowners are cash poor despite high home values [9] Consumer Spending Patterns - There is a notable shift towards premium products, with Delta Airlines selling more first-class tickets than coach for the first time, and Coca-Cola seeing increased sales of premium beverages [10] - Consumers are increasingly opting to eat at home rather than dining out, which aligns with the trend of trading down in grocery purchases [10] Brand Performance - Capri Holdings, which owns luxury brands like Versace and Michael Kors, is facing challenges with its stock at a 10-year low, contrasting with brands like Ralph Lauren and Williams Sonoma that are performing well [12] - Estee Lauder is also experiencing difficulties, highlighting that not all luxury brands are immune to market pressures [12]

11月5日 ，A股三大股指受全球市场下跌拖累集体低开高走，截至午盘， 沪指涨0.05%，深成指跌0.15%，创业板指涨0.17%， 沪深两市半日成 交额1.14万亿，较上个交易日缩量799亿。 记者丨江佩佩 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨谢珍 视频丨王学权 | 内地股票 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3962.04 | 13155.62 | 1528.78 | | +1.85 +0.05% -19.60 -0.15% -0.00 0.00% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 1379.94 | 3139.53 | 6307.54 | | -7.30 -0.53% +5.44 +0.17% +1.64 +0.03% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 4615.33 | 7205.24 | 5530.31 | | -3.36 -0.07% -5.58 -0.08% -5.06 -0.09% | | | | 中证1000 | 深证100 | 中证 ...

曲江文旅公告，第三季度营收为2.06亿元，下降29.98%；净利润亏损1095.95万元。前三季度营收为7.38 亿元，下降30.68%；净利润亏损2484.01万元。 ...

Stock Picks Overview - Strategists highlight stocks poised for positive returns, focusing on those with strong earnings reports [1] - Two stocks are featured: one in tech (AI play) and one in the cruise line industry [2] Carnival Corporation (CCL) Analysis - Carnival is a Zacks number one ranked stock with an A for VGM, indicating value [3][4] - Stock experienced a dip of over 10% in the past month, potentially creating a buying opportunity [5] - Carnival reported an 83% earnings surprise and has had eight consecutive quarters of record earnings [5][6] - Pre-bookings for the next year are at the same level as last year's record levels, with strong demand seen for 2027 [7] - Carnival offers a variety of cruise lines to meet different price points [8] - Analysts have raised earnings estimates six times for this fiscal year and next year [12] - Earnings are projected to grow 49% this year and 12% next year [13] - The company benefits from lower fuel prices and reduced promotional activity due to strong demand [13][14] - Carnival's valuation includes a forward PE ratio of 13 and a PEG ratio of 06, suggesting both growth and value [14] Micron Technology (MU) Analysis - Micron Technology is a Zacks rank number one strong buy rated stock, benefiting from the AI boom [16] - The stock is up approximately 48% as of the recording and is rebounding after a selloff [17] - BNP Pariba analyst raised the price target by 170% to $270, anticipating a memory super cycle [18] - Fiscal fourth quarter 2025 results showed earnings up 157% year-over-year and revenues up 46% year-over-year [18] - Analysts have been raising estimates for the current quarter and year [20] - The stock is up 125% year-to-date, making it the top-performing chip stock in 2025 [21] - Micron is trading at a forward PE multiple of 1095 times [22]

Economic Indicators - The US September ISM services index fell by 2.0 to a 4-month low of 50.0, which was weaker than the expected 51.7 [1] - The ISM services price paid sub-index unexpectedly rose by 0.2 to 69.4, contrary to expectations of a decline to 68.0 [1] - The US September S&P composite PMI was revised upward by 0.3 to 53.9 from the previously reported 53.6 [1] Market Reactions - Stock indexes traded mixed after the drop in the ISM services index, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrials posting new all-time highs earlier in the day [3][4] - Higher bond yields led to long liquidation in interest rate-sensitive technology stocks, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.12% [4][9] - The ongoing US government shutdown negatively impacted market sentiment, contributing to the mixed performance of stock indexes [3] Corporate Earnings Expectations - More than 22% of S&P 500 companies provided guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, marking the highest rate in a year [7] - S&P companies are projected to achieve 6.9% earnings growth in Q3, an increase from the previous estimate of 6.7% [7] Stock Movements - Humana (HUM) closed up more than 10% after reaffirming its earnings guidance for 2025, leading gains in managed health care companies [13] - Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) surged more than 3% after announcing it will sell credit scores directly to mortgage resellers [14] - US-listed Macau-linked casino stocks, including Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS), retreated over 7% due to weaker-than-expected national passenger data from China [16] Sector Performance - Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks experienced declines, with KLA Corp (KLAC) down more than 3% and Applied Materials (AMAT) down more than 2% due to a revenue decrease forecast [17] - Weakness in major technology stocks, including Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA), contributed to overall market drag, with Palantir Technologies (PLTR) leading losses down more than 7% [18]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a bullish rebound on Friday, reducing the weekly losses for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, with both indices showing technical support at their 21-day exponential moving averages [1] - The Nasdaq is up 4.8% for September, aiming for its sixth consecutive monthly gain, while the S&P 500 has climbed 2.8%, targeting its fifth straight up month [1] Earnings Reports - A modest week of earnings reports includes Nike (NKE) and stocks like Carnival (CCL) and Levi Strauss (LEVI) showing strong charts [2] - Nike is set to report its fiscal first quarter, marking the end of the quarterly earnings season [7] - Carnival is testing support at its 10-week line, with shares up nearly 22% year-to-date [7] Tesla Deliveries - Tesla is expected to report global third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Thursday, with analyst consensus around 448,000, which is approximately 17% above the second-quarter total but down 3% compared to Q3 2024 [6] - Projections for Tesla's Q3 deliveries vary, with Piper Sandler estimating 495,000 and UBS predicting 475,000, while Kalshi prediction market suggests 505,000 units, which would be a record [6] Job Market Insights - The September jobs report is crucial for the Federal Reserve's outlook, with economists expecting a 50,000-job overall payroll gain, private payrolls up 75,000, and government jobs down by 25,000 [5] - The jobless rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, with average hourly wage growth at 3.7% [5] Earnings Revisions - The Net Earnings Revisions Index (NERI) showed a significant rebound, turning positive in August for the first time in 11 months, reaching a 45-month high by late September [8] - Health care and financials exhibited the strongest revision activity, both up more than 11%, while energy and consumer staples were the weakest, each down more than 3% [8]

Company Overview - Stack Capital Group Inc. reported its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, with all amounts in Canadian Dollars [1] - The Company aims to invest in growth-to-late-stage private businesses, providing shareholders with exposure to a diversified private investment portfolio [7] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the Book Value of the Company was $157.6 million, and the Book Value per Share was $14.34, an increase from $12.06 as of March 31, 2025 [3][5] - The Company marked up its investment in CoreWeave by US$25.7 million, reflecting a closing price of US$163.06 [5] - An additional US$3 million was invested in SpaceX during Q2-2025, with SpaceX's valuation increasing from US$350 billion to US$400 billion post-quarter [5] Investment Portfolio - The breakdown of Book Value per Share as of June 30, 2025, includes significant investments in various companies: - CoreWeave, Inc. (AI hyper-scaler): $4.25 - SpaceX: $2.47 - Locus Robotics, Inc. (autonomous robots): $1.26 - Canva, Inc. (graphic design): $1.23 - Omio, Inc. (travel & leisure): $1.05 - Hopper, Inc. (travel & leisure): $1.03 - Newfront Insurance, Inc. (insurance & benefits): $1.02 - Prove Identity, Inc. (cyber-security): $0.98 - Bolt Financial, Inc. (e-commerce): $0.48 - Shield AI, Inc. (military defense): $0.39 - Varo Money, Inc. (neo-banking): $0.13 - Cash: $0.50 - Net other assets: $(0.45) [4] Market Environment - The CEO of Stack Capital noted a robust IPO environment and strong momentum in private markets, particularly among disruptive companies in AI, LLMs, and robotics [3] - The Company remains focused on backing category-leading businesses that can deliver long-term value for shareholders [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) driven by higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected on July 23, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.67, reflecting a +9.9% year-over-year change, and revenues projected at $1.01 billion, up 2.6% from the previous year [3][2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.12% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Travel Leisure Co. is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.21%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Travel Leisure Co. exceeded the expected EPS of $1.1 by delivering $1.11, resulting in a +0.91% surprise [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Conclusion - While the company may not be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [17].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has stabilized amid ongoing tariff concerns, with inflation remaining the primary concern for consumers [1][7] - The report indicates a slight decline in consumer confidence regarding the economic outlook, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% anticipating deterioration, resulting in a NET score of -10% [7][61] - Concerns over tariffs remain elevated but stable, with 39% of consumers very concerned, down from 43% in April [7][14] - The spending outlook remains stable, with 32% of consumers planning to spend more in the next month, yielding a NET of +15% [19][84] - Travel intentions are strong, with approximately 60% of consumers planning to travel in the next six months, reflecting optimism in leisure travel [117] Consumer Sentiment - Inflation is the top concern for consumers at 57%, down from 59% last month, while political concerns have risen to 43% [8][37] - Geopolitical conflict concerns increased to 31% this month from 21% last month [7][8] - Low-income consumers are more worried about paying rent/mortgage and debts, while upper-income consumers focus on investment concerns [9][42] Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is slightly down, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% expecting deterioration, leading to a NET score of -10% [61][71] - The outlook for household finances remains positive, with 43% expecting improvement and a NET score of +16% [64][70] Tariff Impact - 39% of consumers report being very concerned about tariffs, with 33% planning to cut back on spending in response [14][19] - The level of concern about tariffs varies significantly by political affiliation, with 63% of liberals very concerned compared to 23% of conservatives [14][50] Spending Intentions - The short-term spending outlook is stable, with 32% of consumers expecting to spend more next month, yielding a NET of +15% [84][88] - 30% of consumers reported making a major purchase in the past three months, with 58% planning a major purchase in the next three months [97][98] Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [117][119]

Macau Gaming Revenue Resurgence - Macau's gambling sector is experiencing a post-pandemic recovery, with June gross gaming revenue showing a 19% year-over-year improvement [1] - June gambling revenue reached $26 billion [2] - Gaming revenue jump may be a result of promotional spending [3] - Macau has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, making future earnings reports crucial for insight [4] Stock Market Impact - Casino stocks with Macau exposure are rising, including Wind (up 8%), Las Vegas Sands (up 8%), Melco (up 11%), and MGM Resorts (up 6%) [2] - Melco has seen gains of 52% over the last 3 months [3] Diversification Efforts - Macau is attempting to diversify its economy beyond gambling, focusing on shows and events like NBA exhibition games [5][6] - The success of attracting non-gambling spending is yet to be determined [6] Economic Factors - The Chinese macro backdrop remains a key consideration for Macau casinos [4] - There can be a divergence between the Chinese economy and gambling activity in Macau, as it is fueled by serious gamblers [5]