Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Bartis at the New York Stock Exchange. So, here's some final thoughts on basically the weak session that we saw.Two big stories really driving the market narrative this week. The Fed and the AI trade. The markets really got what they wanted with that 25 basis point cut, but investors also took Pal's comments as less hawkish than expected.A big part of this was to do with the so-called mini QE, the plan to buy $40 billion in T bills starting from today. Now the reason ...

Consumer Behavior Insights - The current consumer landscape is characterized by a bifurcated market, with affluent consumers trading down while lower-income consumers face financial strain [1][11] - Companies like Walmart and McDonald's illustrate the varying performance across different market segments, with McDonald's reporting that 30% of US transactions involve extra value meals [2][3] Stock Performance - Live Nation, which owns Ticketmaster, saw a 10% drop in stock price after missing earnings expectations, reflecting broader market challenges [5] - Trex, a decking company, experienced a 25% decline in stock value, indicating struggles in the housing market, which remains locked due to high mortgage rates [7] Market Trends - Heavy discounting is expected during the holiday season, which may pressure profit margins for retailers like Best Buy and Dick's Sporting Goods [8] - The housing market is constrained, with mortgage rates unlikely to fall below 6%, leading to a situation where homeowners are cash poor despite high home values [9] Consumer Spending Patterns - There is a notable shift towards premium products, with Delta Airlines selling more first-class tickets than coach for the first time, and Coca-Cola seeing increased sales of premium beverages [10] - Consumers are increasingly opting to eat at home rather than dining out, which aligns with the trend of trading down in grocery purchases [10] Brand Performance - Capri Holdings, which owns luxury brands like Versace and Michael Kors, is facing challenges with its stock at a 10-year low, contrasting with brands like Ralph Lauren and Williams Sonoma that are performing well [12] - Estee Lauder is also experiencing difficulties, highlighting that not all luxury brands are immune to market pressures [12]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 3962.04, while the Shenzhen Component fell by 0.15% to 13155.62, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.17% to 3139.53, indicating a slight recovery after initial declines [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.14 trillion yuan, a decrease of 79.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The electric grid equipment sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Moen Electric and China Energy Electric achieving consecutive trading limits, while the consumer sector also performed well with multiple stocks hitting trading limits [4] - Conversely, the storage chip sector faced declines, with stocks such as Fudan Microelectronics dropping over 4% [4] New Investor Activity - In October, the number of new A-share accounts opened was 2.31 million, a decrease of 21.36% from September's 2.94 million [6] - Year-to-date, the total number of new A-share accounts reached 22.46 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.57% [6] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced significant downturns, with Bitcoin dropping below $99,000, leading to over 480,000 liquidations and a total loss of $2 billion in the past 24 hours [9][10] - The liquidation amounts included $1.53 billion in the last 12 hours and $2.1 billion in the last 24 hours, indicating a severe impact on traders [10] Economic Indicators - The China Warehousing Index for October was reported at 50.6%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, suggesting a steady improvement in economic activity [4] - The People's Bank of China announced continued liquidity release in the market, contributing to a relatively strong performance in A-shares [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Qujiang Cultural Tourism reported a significant decline in revenue and incurred net losses in the third quarter and the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 2 - In the third quarter, the company's revenue was 206 million yuan, representing a decrease of 29.98% [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was a loss of 10.96 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters, the total revenue was 738 million yuan, down 30.68% compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit for the first three quarters showed a loss of 24.84 million yuan [1]

Stock Picks Overview - Strategists highlight stocks poised for positive returns, focusing on those with strong earnings reports [1] - Two stocks are featured: one in tech (AI play) and one in the cruise line industry [2] Carnival Corporation (CCL) Analysis - Carnival is a Zacks number one ranked stock with an A for VGM, indicating value [3][4] - Stock experienced a dip of over 10% in the past month, potentially creating a buying opportunity [5] - Carnival reported an 83% earnings surprise and has had eight consecutive quarters of record earnings [5][6] - Pre-bookings for the next year are at the same level as last year's record levels, with strong demand seen for 2027 [7] - Carnival offers a variety of cruise lines to meet different price points [8] - Analysts have raised earnings estimates six times for this fiscal year and next year [12] - Earnings are projected to grow 49% this year and 12% next year [13] - The company benefits from lower fuel prices and reduced promotional activity due to strong demand [13][14] - Carnival's valuation includes a forward PE ratio of 13 and a PEG ratio of 06, suggesting both growth and value [14] Micron Technology (MU) Analysis - Micron Technology is a Zacks rank number one strong buy rated stock, benefiting from the AI boom [16] - The stock is up approximately 48% as of the recording and is rebounding after a selloff [17] - BNP Pariba analyst raised the price target by 170% to $270, anticipating a memory super cycle [18] - Fiscal fourth quarter 2025 results showed earnings up 157% year-over-year and revenues up 46% year-over-year [18] - Analysts have been raising estimates for the current quarter and year [20] - The stock is up 125% year-to-date, making it the top-performing chip stock in 2025 [21] - Micron is trading at a forward PE multiple of 1095 times [22]

Economic Indicators - The US September ISM services index fell by 2.0 to a 4-month low of 50.0, which was weaker than the expected 51.7 [1] - The ISM services price paid sub-index unexpectedly rose by 0.2 to 69.4, contrary to expectations of a decline to 68.0 [1] - The US September S&P composite PMI was revised upward by 0.3 to 53.9 from the previously reported 53.6 [1] Market Reactions - Stock indexes traded mixed after the drop in the ISM services index, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrials posting new all-time highs earlier in the day [3][4] - Higher bond yields led to long liquidation in interest rate-sensitive technology stocks, with the 10-year T-note yield rising by 4 basis points to 4.12% [4][9] - The ongoing US government shutdown negatively impacted market sentiment, contributing to the mixed performance of stock indexes [3] Corporate Earnings Expectations - More than 22% of S&P 500 companies provided guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to exceed analysts' expectations, marking the highest rate in a year [7] - S&P companies are projected to achieve 6.9% earnings growth in Q3, an increase from the previous estimate of 6.7% [7] Stock Movements - Humana (HUM) closed up more than 10% after reaffirming its earnings guidance for 2025, leading gains in managed health care companies [13] - Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) surged more than 3% after announcing it will sell credit scores directly to mortgage resellers [14] - US-listed Macau-linked casino stocks, including Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) and Las Vegas Sands (LVS), retreated over 7% due to weaker-than-expected national passenger data from China [16] Sector Performance - Chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks experienced declines, with KLA Corp (KLAC) down more than 3% and Applied Materials (AMAT) down more than 2% due to a revenue decrease forecast [17] - Weakness in major technology stocks, including Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA), contributed to overall market drag, with Palantir Technologies (PLTR) leading losses down more than 7% [18]

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a bullish rebound on Friday, reducing the weekly losses for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, with both indices showing technical support at their 21-day exponential moving averages [1] - The Nasdaq is up 4.8% for September, aiming for its sixth consecutive monthly gain, while the S&P 500 has climbed 2.8%, targeting its fifth straight up month [1] Earnings Reports - A modest week of earnings reports includes Nike (NKE) and stocks like Carnival (CCL) and Levi Strauss (LEVI) showing strong charts [2] - Nike is set to report its fiscal first quarter, marking the end of the quarterly earnings season [7] - Carnival is testing support at its 10-week line, with shares up nearly 22% year-to-date [7] Tesla Deliveries - Tesla is expected to report global third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Thursday, with analyst consensus around 448,000, which is approximately 17% above the second-quarter total but down 3% compared to Q3 2024 [6] - Projections for Tesla's Q3 deliveries vary, with Piper Sandler estimating 495,000 and UBS predicting 475,000, while Kalshi prediction market suggests 505,000 units, which would be a record [6] Job Market Insights - The September jobs report is crucial for the Federal Reserve's outlook, with economists expecting a 50,000-job overall payroll gain, private payrolls up 75,000, and government jobs down by 25,000 [5] - The jobless rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, with average hourly wage growth at 3.7% [5] Earnings Revisions - The Net Earnings Revisions Index (NERI) showed a significant rebound, turning positive in August for the first time in 11 months, reaching a 45-month high by late September [8] - Health care and financials exhibited the strongest revision activity, both up more than 11%, while energy and consumer staples were the weakest, each down more than 3% [8]

Company Overview - Stack Capital Group Inc. reported its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025, with all amounts in Canadian Dollars [1] - The Company aims to invest in growth-to-late-stage private businesses, providing shareholders with exposure to a diversified private investment portfolio [7] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the Book Value of the Company was $157.6 million, and the Book Value per Share was $14.34, an increase from $12.06 as of March 31, 2025 [3][5] - The Company marked up its investment in CoreWeave by US$25.7 million, reflecting a closing price of US$163.06 [5] - An additional US$3 million was invested in SpaceX during Q2-2025, with SpaceX's valuation increasing from US$350 billion to US$400 billion post-quarter [5] Investment Portfolio - The breakdown of Book Value per Share as of June 30, 2025, includes significant investments in various companies: - CoreWeave, Inc. (AI hyper-scaler): $4.25 - SpaceX: $2.47 - Locus Robotics, Inc. (autonomous robots): $1.26 - Canva, Inc. (graphic design): $1.23 - Omio, Inc. (travel & leisure): $1.05 - Hopper, Inc. (travel & leisure): $1.03 - Newfront Insurance, Inc. (insurance & benefits): $1.02 - Prove Identity, Inc. (cyber-security): $0.98 - Bolt Financial, Inc. (e-commerce): $0.48 - Shield AI, Inc. (military defense): $0.39 - Varo Money, Inc. (neo-banking): $0.13 - Cash: $0.50 - Net other assets: $(0.45) [4] Market Environment - The CEO of Stack Capital noted a robust IPO environment and strong momentum in private markets, particularly among disruptive companies in AI, LLMs, and robotics [3] - The Company remains focused on backing category-leading businesses that can deliver long-term value for shareholders [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings for Travel + Leisure Co. (TNL) driven by higher revenues, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected on July 23, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.67, reflecting a +9.9% year-over-year change, and revenues projected at $1.01 billion, up 2.6% from the previous year [3][2]. - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.12% higher in the last 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that the Most Accurate Estimate for Travel Leisure Co. is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -3.21%, suggesting a bearish outlook from analysts [12]. - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Travel Leisure Co. exceeded the expected EPS of $1.1 by delivering $1.11, resulting in a +0.91% surprise [13]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has consistently beaten consensus EPS estimates [14]. Conclusion - While the company may not be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance ahead of the earnings release [17].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has stabilized amid ongoing tariff concerns, with inflation remaining the primary concern for consumers [1][7] - The report indicates a slight decline in consumer confidence regarding the economic outlook, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% anticipating deterioration, resulting in a NET score of -10% [7][61] - Concerns over tariffs remain elevated but stable, with 39% of consumers very concerned, down from 43% in April [7][14] - The spending outlook remains stable, with 32% of consumers planning to spend more in the next month, yielding a NET of +15% [19][84] - Travel intentions are strong, with approximately 60% of consumers planning to travel in the next six months, reflecting optimism in leisure travel [117] Consumer Sentiment - Inflation is the top concern for consumers at 57%, down from 59% last month, while political concerns have risen to 43% [8][37] - Geopolitical conflict concerns increased to 31% this month from 21% last month [7][8] - Low-income consumers are more worried about paying rent/mortgage and debts, while upper-income consumers focus on investment concerns [9][42] Macro Outlook - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy is slightly down, with 37% expecting improvement and 47% expecting deterioration, leading to a NET score of -10% [61][71] - The outlook for household finances remains positive, with 43% expecting improvement and a NET score of +16% [64][70] Tariff Impact - 39% of consumers report being very concerned about tariffs, with 33% planning to cut back on spending in response [14][19] - The level of concern about tariffs varies significantly by political affiliation, with 63% of liberals very concerned compared to 23% of conservatives [14][50] Spending Intentions - The short-term spending outlook is stable, with 32% of consumers expecting to spend more next month, yielding a NET of +15% [84][88] - 30% of consumers reported making a major purchase in the past three months, with 58% planning a major purchase in the next three months [97][98] Travel Intentions - Approximately 60% of consumers plan to travel in the next six months, with visiting friends and family being the most common reason [117][119]