2025 年前三季度出版行业运行 分析 联合资信 工商评级二部 |王 阳 2025 年前三季度，出版行业整体承压但结构分化明显。刚需品类持续领跑， IP 衍生与经典文学类图书表现突出。渠道端呈现差异化态势，部分线上渠 道保持增长，传统电商与实体渠道面临挑战。企业营收略有下滑但利润实 现增长，政策聚焦行业规范与数字化转型。行业存在爆款周期缩短、同质 化竞争等问题，未来将朝着结构性增长、全渠道融合及品牌化数字化方向 推进。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、行业运行状况 2025 年前三季度，出版行业呈现"整体承压、局部亮点"的格局，整体市场微幅 回落并呈结构性分化，图书零售市场处于下行态势。中金易云数据显示，2025 年前三 季度纸质图书市场码洋达 786.09 亿元，同比下降 10.40%，动销品种数为 116.95 万种， 同比下降 4.92%，平均定价微升 1.86%至 47.56 元。从剔除文教类图书后的口径看， 2025 年前三季度，图书市场销售码洋同比下降 15.49%，一般图书市场存在较大的下 行压力。新书方面，2025 年前三季度，新书码洋同比下降约 5%，动销新品数同比下 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.64 [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 6.335 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.09%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.46% to RMB 1.017 billion [1][2]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the company's proactive reduction of low-margin bulk business and a decline in traditional e-commerce channel sales [2]. - The overall gross margin improved to 45.84%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points, mainly due to lower raw material prices [2]. - The company maintains a leading position in the book publishing market, with a market share of 5.25% in the national book retail market and 6.07% in the new book retail market [3]. - The digital education business is advancing, with significant user growth on platforms like Beike and Xiangjiao Zhihuiyun [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 3.461 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 648 million, an increase of 32.31% [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of RMB 1.00 per 10 shares for 2025 [1]. Market Position - The company ranks second in the overall book retail market and first in the new book retail market, with strong performance in various segments such as education and academic culture [3]. Digital Education Initiatives - The K12 education platform, Beike, has reached 8.52 million users, and the "Xiangjiao Zhihuiyun" platform had over 39 million visits in the first half of 2025 [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is RMB 1.702 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 16.5X for the same year [5].

Core Insights - The Shanghai Book Fair has attracted a diverse audience, highlighting the importance of understanding the needs of younger generations in the publishing industry [1][2][3] - Popular events featuring young authors and illustrators have successfully engaged both children and their parents, indicating a growing interest in reading among younger demographics [2][5] - The celebration of classic literary figures, such as the 90th anniversary of "Sanmao," demonstrates the enduring appeal of established intellectual properties and the need for publishers to continuously engage new readers [3][4] Industry Trends - The Shanghai Book Fair serves as a significant platform for fostering reading culture and community engagement, with high attendance and active participation in various events [1][6] - The presence of well-known authors and the organization of interactive activities have proven effective in attracting audiences of all ages, suggesting a trend towards experiential marketing in the publishing sector [2][5] - The emphasis on nurturing reading habits in children through engaging content reflects a broader industry focus on educational and entertaining literature [2][4]