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《NIFD季报》
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NIFD季报:经济回升、外部环境变化与政策支持
Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP reached approximately 135 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, with a five-year average growth rate of 4.9%[11] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2%[11] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.1%, with 12.56 million new urban jobs created, exceeding the target of 12 million[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.2%, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2% and infrastructure investment rising by 4.4%[24] - Real estate investment declined by 10.6%, marking a significant drop compared to previous years[24] Trade and Exports - China's total goods trade reached $6.16 trillion, with exports of $3.58 trillion (up 5.9%) and imports of $2.59 trillion (up 1.1%)[24] - The trade surplus was $992.2 billion, an increase of $168.9 billion from the previous year[24] Economic Forecast for 2025 - GDP growth is projected to be around 4.9%, with quarterly growth rates estimated at 5.0%, 5.2%, 4.9%, and 4.5%[43] - CPI is expected to show a gradual increase after a dip in February, while PPI may decline by approximately 2%[46] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on macroeconomic regulation to stabilize overall demand and support structural reforms[47] - Implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to enhance economic recovery momentum[47]