SHMET 网讯：美国经济正出现令人费解的异常现象，这让肩负遏制通胀和维护劳动力市场双重使 命的政策制定者感到不安。 今年美国企业显著放缓了招聘步伐，在无法完全预判特朗普全面经济政策影响的情况下，投资者普 遍持观望态度。劳工部数据显示，6月和8月就业岗位出现减少，截至9月的三个月平均新增就业人数仅 约6.2万。 然而作为经济产出关键驱动力的工人生产率却保持高位。衡量经济中所有商品与服务产出的国内生 产总值（GDP）也维持强劲。 这种经济扩张与劳动力市场疲软并存的矛盾现象，给美联储政策制定者带来了难题，使他们难以判 断经济究竟需要降温还是需要刺激。根据上周公布的会议纪要，美联储官员在10月会议上指出："稳健 的经济增长与疲弱的就业创造之间的分化，为政策决策创造了特别复杂的环境。" 政府停摆可能对今年10月至12月的当季GDP造成拖累，但市场普遍预期美国经济将在明年初收复大 部分损失。 与此同时，自年初以来特朗普的重大政策调整持续制约着美国劳动力市场。DA戴维森财富管理研 究总监詹姆斯·雷根（James Ragan）表示："由于影响劳动力供需的贸易和移民政策发生变化，今年就业 形势始终面临挑战。" 经济学家认为， ...

Core Viewpoint - The diplomatic dispute between China and Japan, along with concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook and comments from Prime Minister Kishi, has led to increased market activity in "sell Japan" trades, resulting in significant declines in Japanese stocks and bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 3.2%, marking the largest single-day drop since April 9 [1]. - The yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.68%, the highest level since 2007 [1]. - Investor sentiment is deteriorating due to uncertainties surrounding the government's fiscal situation and the strained relationship with China, fueling the "sell Japan" trend [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Japan's economy, already weakened by U.S. tariffs and declining real estate investments, faces additional uncertainty due to the diplomatic dispute triggered by Prime Minister Kishi's comments [3]. - The number of Chinese tourists, who accounted for approximately 5.7 million visitors or nearly 23% of all foreign tourists to Japan this year, is expected to decline, impacting the tourism sector [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that the ongoing tensions could lead to a contraction in Japan's GDP by 1.79 trillion yen, equivalent to a decrease of 0.29% within a year [3]. Group 3: Recent Economic Data - Japan's GDP contracted by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [4].

记者 辛圆 展望后续货币政策，中国人民银行11月11日发布的2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告提出，实施好 适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种工具，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，同时继续完善货币政策框架， 强化货币政策的执行和传导。深入推进利率市场化改革，畅通货币政策传导渠道。 招联首席研究员董希淼对智通财经表示，未来一段时间，预计央行将继续释放中长期流动性，优化流动 性期限结构，保持金融市场流动性充裕，更好地引导金融机构加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的 支持服务。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园也对智通财经表示，鉴于当前经济回落有加速迹象，政策"适时加力"的必要 性和可能性提升，宽松还是大方向，年内再降准降息可期。 另外，前10个月人民币存款增加23.32万亿元。其中，住户存款增加11.39万亿元，非金融企业存款增加 4447亿元，财政性存款增加2.09万亿元，非银行业金融机构存款增加6.66万亿元。 央行同日发布的2025年10月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告显示，初步统计，2025年10月末社会融资规 模存量为437.72万亿元，同比增长8.5%，增速较上月回落0.2个百分点。其中，对实体经济发放的人民 币贷 ...

Core Viewpoint - The eighth Hongqiao International Economic Forum emphasizes the importance of open trade and security development in the context of global economic challenges, including protectionism and unilateralism [1][3]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum, held in Shanghai, gathered nearly 20 experts from academia, strategy, business, and think tanks to discuss building an open, inclusive, and balanced global trade system [1]. - The event included the release of a think tank research report titled "Pathways to Coexistence in Trade Security Development between China and the World by 2050" [1][10]. Group 2: Key Themes and Discussions - Open trade is highlighted as a means to build trust among different governments and systems, promoting shared prosperity [5]. - The report emphasizes that future trade security will involve not only national strategies but also micro-level enterprise survival and macro-level governance [10]. - Experts agree that China's ongoing high-level opening-up efforts provide a stable foundation for reconstructing the global economic order amidst rising uncertainties [25][31]. Group 3: Expert Insights - Michelle Umulenge from Rwanda stressed that open trade is a driving force for peace and development, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road [5]. - Jeffrey Sachs criticized the U.S. protectionist policies, arguing they undermine multilateralism and global prosperity [8][29]. - Martin Jacques noted a shift in global narratives from economic growth to security priorities, influenced by Western countries' strategies against China [17]. Group 4: Future Directions - The report outlines a vision for 2050, proposing a "coexistence security" model as a core pathway for trade development [10]. - It calls for innovative rules and collaborative global governance to address trade security challenges [10]. - The discussions highlighted the need for countries to seek balance through openness amidst structural changes in globalization [23][32].

Core Insights - The article discusses the dynamic balance between intended savings and planned investments in industrialized countries since the mid-1980s, highlighting how these economies maintain high consumption rates despite declining labor income shares [1][3]. Group 1: Key Factors Influencing Savings and Investments - The report identifies four key forces that enable the dynamic balance between savings and investments: household wealth, new investment opportunities, interest rates, and counter-cyclical policies [3][5]. - Household financial wealth has grown significantly, supporting consumption levels despite increasing income inequality. For instance, the average financial asset per household in the U.S. is approximately $370,000, compared to $100,000 in Europe and $120,000 in Japan [4][5]. - New investment opportunities, particularly in knowledge and technology-intensive sectors, have sustained investment demand, with fixed asset investment rates remaining stable despite high per capita income levels [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations for Consumption Growth - To boost consumption in the short term, the report suggests implementing aggressive fiscal policies and lowering policy interest rates to stimulate nominal GDP growth [6][7]. - Long-term strategies should focus on improving social security systems and enhancing service sector offerings, particularly in healthcare and education, which are areas where consumers are willing to spend more [7][8]. - Public investment should prioritize urban renewal and infrastructure projects to address existing gaps, especially in light of underutilized labor and production capacity [8][9]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The article emphasizes the need for increased fiscal spending and potential adjustments in policy interest rates to lower overall financing costs, which could further stimulate economic activity [9]. - It highlights that for nominal GDP to grow by 5% to 7%, fiscal spending growth should not fall below the target GDP growth rate, indicating a need for careful fiscal management [9].

Core Insights - The analysis of the economic situation in the first three quarters of 2023 highlights significant pressures primarily from the demand side, with declines in investment growth across various sectors including manufacturing, public infrastructure, and real estate [3] - Despite the persistent issue of insufficient effective demand, there are positive developments such as the introduction of new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion yuan, which are expected to support economic recovery in the fourth quarter [3] - The importance of consumer spending is emphasized, with comparisons drawn to stable consumption rates in Europe, the US, and Japan, driven by factors such as rapid growth in household financial assets, improved social security levels, and enhanced social services [3] Economic Analysis - Investment growth has seen a decline, particularly in manufacturing, public infrastructure, and real estate sectors, while consumer growth has also slowed down, accompanied by low price levels [3] - The relationship between nominal GDP and consumer spending is critical, as improved GDP leads to increased disposable income, thereby boosting consumption [4] - The need for new investment opportunities is highlighted, as traditional investment demand decreases with falling marginal returns on capital; identifying new sectors and growth opportunities is essential for maintaining investment levels [4] Recommendations for Demand Expansion - To stimulate consumption, it is crucial to avoid long-term framing of the demand insufficiency issue, learning from Japan's historical context [5] - Short-term cyclical policies are identified as effective tools for influencing consumer behavior and spending [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the classification of market states into "trend" and "range" based on historical data, emphasizing the importance of recognizing these states for investment strategies [1][4] - In a trending market, momentum strategies like "buy high, sell higher" yield greater returns, while in a ranging market, mean-reversion strategies perform better [1][4] - A two-phase algorithm is developed to label historical trends and ranges in the Shanghai Composite Index, enhancing the accuracy of market state identification [2][3] Group 2 - The backtesting period is set from January 2020 to August 2025, reflecting a shift in market behavior post-2020, with increased frequency of state changes [7] - A feature variable system is constructed to identify market states, focusing on price, volume, and volatility, rather than traditional indicators [8][15] - The model training shows that all six feature indicators have an accuracy above 50%, with the volume feature achieving the highest accuracy of 63.48% [22][23] Group 3 - The decision tree model outperforms other models in predicting market states, achieving an accuracy of 80.10% in the test set [36][39] - The strategy based on the decision tree model yields a total return of 77.20%, significantly outperforming the benchmark [63] - The research highlights the potential of combining strategic signals for long-term market state identification with tactical signals for short-term changes to enhance strategy performance [64]

Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD opened slightly lower at 7.1267, compared to the previous trading day's close of 7.1246 [1] - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.13003 as of 9:30 AM [1] - The RMB central parity rate against the USD was set at 7.1048, an increase of 54 basis points from the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - The USD index fluctuated above the 99 mark, reported at 99.3578 as of 9:30 AM [3] - According to a report from Industrial Bank Research, the USD index rebounded as expected after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, aligning with historical patterns following preventive rate cuts [3] - There remains significant potential for further USD strength, contingent on economic data, particularly employment figures [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold has further potential for price increases, with prices reaching a historical high of $4,000 per ounce, and central banks continue to buy gold despite this high price [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month as of September [1] - Regional political risks remain high, indicating that gold may still have room for further appreciation [1] Group 2 - As of October 9, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 5.56%, with individual stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) increasing by 10.07% and 10.00% respectively [3] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund (159322) experienced a 7.77% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.75 yuan [3] - Over the past two weeks, the Gold Stock ETF Fund has accumulated a rise of 5.53%, ranking it in the top 1/6 of comparable funds [3] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF Fund had a net outflow of 161.44 million yuan recently, but over the last 16 trading days, it attracted a total of 1,232.58 million yuan [4] - The fund's net value increased by 54.83% over the past year, ranking 569 out of 3054 index stock funds, placing it in the top 18.63% [4] - The fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10% [4] Group 4 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) include Zijin Mining (601899) and Shandong Gold (600547), which together account for 68.2% of the index [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged since September, reaching historical highs, with a significant breakthrough above $3,500 and currently stabilizing above $3,800, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [1] Group 1: Year-to-Date Gold Price Trends - Gold's price increase in early 2023 was primarily driven by its safe-haven attribute due to heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties following significant policy changes by the U.S. government [2] - The price consolidation in April was attributed to a reduction in risk perception and a shift in market expectations regarding U.S. government policies, leading to a prolonged period of price stabilization [3] - The rise in August was mainly influenced by financial attributes, with market expectations of interest rate cuts following weak employment data, culminating in a breakthrough above the $3,500 resistance level [3] Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - The current upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, which provide a solid support base for prices [6] - The systemic rise in potential uncertainties is prompting both central banks and private investors to increase their gold allocations, highlighting gold's value as a counter asset to the U.S. dollar [7] - Research indicates that allocating gold can significantly optimize the risk-return profile of traditional stock and bond portfolios, with specific recommendations for physical gold investment and appropriate allocation ratios for different risk profiles [10]