地址：北京市朝阳区东三环路1号环球金融中心 预约席位 活动议程 本次公开课将探讨： 时间：8月16日（周六）下午 13:00 13:00-14:00 签到 14:00-15:00 教授公开课：全球政治经济不确定性下的国际经济形势展望 15:00-15:40 高金MBA培养体系解析 15:40-16:00 Q&A 不确定性环境下的经济决策逻辑 长期风险与增长技术创新对资产机遇的量化评估 技术创新对资产定价的核心影响 获取前沿学术研究转化的经济趋势研判框架 理解复杂环境中的风险定价与资源配置逻辑 与金融学界资深研究者直接对话 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副教授 上海交通大学证券金融研究所副所长 曾任上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院金融系副教授、博士生导师，上海交通大学行业研究院银行业研 究团队主要成员;曾任新加坡国立大学商学院金融系副教授，新加坡国立大学风险管理研究中心研究员 和房地产研究中心研究员。 李楠教授的主要研究领域是金融经济学、金融计量经济学和宏观资产定价。目前致力于研究不确定性下 的经济政策和投资决策，长期风险和不确定性的定价，以及技术创新和无形资产的风险与估值。她与 2013年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、芝 ...

预 约 席 位 ↓↓↓ 不确定性环境下的经济决策逻辑 长期风险与增长技术创新对资产机遇的量化评估 技术创新对资产定价的核心影响 获取前沿学术研究转化的经济趋势研判框架 理解复杂环境中的风险定价与资源配置逻辑 与金融学界资深研究者直接对话 活动议程 13:00-14:00 签到 本次公开课将探讨： 你将获得： 时间：8月16日（周六）下午 13:00 地址：北京市朝阳区东三环路1号环球金融中心 李楠 教授 上海交通大学上海高级金融学院副教授 上海交通大学证券金融研究所副所长 曾任上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院金融系副教授、博士生导师，上海交通大学行业研究院银行业 研究团队主要成员;曾任新加坡国立大学商学院金融系副教授，新加坡国立大学风险管理研究中心研究 员和房地产研究中心研究员。 李楠教授的主要研究领域是金融经济学、金融计量经济学和宏观资产定价。目前致力于研究不确定性 下的经济政策和投资决策，长期风险和不确定性的定价，以及技术创新和无形资产的风险与估值。她 与2013年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、芝加哥大学经济系教授LarsPeterHansen和芝加哥大学商学院教授 JohnC.Heaton合作的文章"Consum ...

Macro Perspective - The current market is supported by a "dual easing" monetary and fiscal policy, which is the core driver for the slow bull market [2][7] - The macroeconomic fundamentals do not support a "crazy bull" or "fast bull" market, indicating a need for caution [5][6] - The market is expected to experience a "slight fluctuation" in the third quarter, with a significant upward trend starting in the fourth quarter [6][7] Market Strategy - The Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a slow upward trend, with a target of 4000 points by the end of the year and a medium-term target of 4500 points [10][11] - Six major policy areas are identified to support the capital market's positive outlook, including financial policies and corporate governance improvements [11][12] - The market's risk-reward ratio is considered favorable, with pullbacks seen as good opportunities for investment [12] Industry Focus - The focus on expanding domestic demand and countering "involution" is crucial for optimizing the existing economic structure [16][18] - Key future industries, particularly artificial intelligence, are expected to drive significant economic growth, potentially adding another GDP's worth of value over the next decade [16][17] - The "anti-involution" policies are aimed at stabilizing growth in major industries, covering nearly 40% of the A-share market capitalization [18]

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 International Monetary Forum" will be held on July 27 in Beijing, focusing on "Geoeconomic Risks and Global Financial Governance Reform" with participation from renowned experts and scholars [2] Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum is co-hosted by Renmin University of China and Nankai University, with multiple institutions involved in its organization [2] - It has been held annually since 2012, making this the 14th edition, and aims to address significant theoretical and practical issues in international finance [5] Group 2: Key Discussion Topics - Topics include "Research on Geoeconomic Risks," "Challenges of Digital Currency to the Global Monetary and Financial System," "History, Current Status, and Future of Global Financial Governance," and "Innovation and Application of Financial Large Models" [2] - The forum will also feature the release of the "Renminbi Internationalization Research Results" [3] Group 3: Geoeconomic Risks - The 2025 research results focus on "Deepening Geoeconomic Risks," analyzing the logic, evolution, and strategies for addressing these risks amid global challenges such as US-China trade tensions and Middle Eastern conflicts [6] - The research provides a dual framework of theory and practice to understand the complexities of geoeconomic risks, emphasizing the need for balance between open cooperation and risk prevention [6]

Group 1: Trade Agreements - The United States and Japan reached a trade agreement where Japan will invest $550 billion and reduce tariffs on agricultural products from 25% to 15% [1][3] - The agreement requires Japan to open its markets for automobiles and rice, resulting in significant economic concessions [3] - The Philippines agreed to a 1% reduction in tariffs, from 20% to 19%, while opening its market to the U.S. with zero tariffs, indicating substantial economic sacrifices [5] Group 2: Economic Impact - The trade agreement is expected to have a short-term positive effect on Japan's stock market, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 800 points after the announcement [3] - However, it is estimated that the agreement could lead to a 0.55% decline in Japan's GDP within a year [3] - The economic concessions made by both Japan and the Philippines may lead to a shift in investment focus away from the U.S. [3][5] Group 3: Political Consequences - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces increasing political pressure, with the agreement being perceived as "humiliating" and leading to dissent within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [3] - Philippine President Marcos's strategy to gain U.S. support through concessions has backfired, putting his political position at risk following a recent electoral loss [5] - The agreements have implications for regional power dynamics, potentially weakening Japan's influence and isolating the Philippines in the South China Sea [6][8] Group 4: Regional and Global Implications - The agreements signify a consolidation of the U.S.'s "America First" policy, enhancing its strategic positioning in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - Other nations, such as the EU, have expressed concerns and may respond with countermeasures if trade agreements with the U.S. are not reached [6] - The situation presents opportunities for China to strengthen regional cooperation and maintain its stance on territorial sovereignty in the South China Sea [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to significant market reactions and a shift in investment strategies, particularly regarding U.S. Treasury bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Strategies - Following rumors of Trump's potential dismissal of Powell, markets experienced volatility, prompting analysts to recommend buying two-year U.S. Treasuries while selling ten-year Treasuries, anticipating a shift in monetary policy [1][3]. - The "Powell hedge" strategy aligns with investors' long-held positions, benefiting from the widening gap between short-term and long-term yields [5][6]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for inflation due to loose monetary policy have led to increased interest in "steepening trades" [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Economic indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. growth, with rising debt and deficits, which supports the case for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6][13]. - The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has risen to 2.42%, indicating growing inflation expectations among investors [10][11]. - Experts predict a high probability (over 90%) of a rate cut in September, while the likelihood of a cut in July remains low (around 30%) [13]. Group 3: Legal and Political Context - Most Wall Street professionals believe Trump would face legal challenges if he attempted to dismiss Powell, complicating the situation [14][19]. - The legal interpretation of "for cause" in the Federal Reserve Act remains uncertain, as it has never been tested in court, creating a legal gray area [17][18]. - Market reactions indicate skepticism about Trump's ability to dismiss Powell, with significant fluctuations in bond yields and currency values following related news [19].

Inflation Data - In June, the US CPI increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, matching expectations, while core CPI rose from 2.8% to 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast[1] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI increased by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[1] Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs was evident in June, with furniture prices rising by 1% (previously 0.3%), clothing by 0.4% (previously -0.4%), and entertainment goods by 0.8% (previously 0.4%)[3] - It is estimated that tariffs have contributed 14% to CPI if core prices remained at February levels, and 40% if they followed last year's declining trend[4] Future Tariff Effects - Assuming the overall tariff rate increases to 17.3%, the remaining unaccounted tariff impact on core prices could add approximately 2.7-2.9 percentage points, translating to a 0.5-0.54 percentage point increase in overall CPI[5] - If the remaining tariff effects manifest over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could reach 3.2% and 3.3% in Q3 and Q4, respectively[10] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts slightly decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from 1.93 to 1.76 for the year[1] - The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 60.1% to 55%, while year-end policy rate expectations rose from 3.846% to 3.89%[1]

Group 1 - Japan's largest labor union, Rengo, reported that companies agreed to a wage increase of 5.25% this year, the highest in 34 years, driven by inflation and labor shortages [1] - The wage growth trend has been consistent, with last year's average increase at 5.10% and the year before at 3.58%, indicating a stable wage growth mechanism in a country that has experienced wage stagnation for decades [1] - The business community is forming a new consensus that wage increases must exceed inflation levels, marking a shift in corporate attitudes towards compensation [1] Group 2 - Mizuho Research Institute predicts that if oil prices decline, it could partially offset the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits, leading to a wage increase of 4.7% next year [2] - The chief economist at Mizuho Research anticipates that the Bank of Japan will likely initiate interest rate hikes in the first quarter of next year, supported by confirmed wage growth momentum [2] - Over half of economists surveyed expect the next 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan to occur in early 2026, with strong wage data providing support for monetary policy normalization [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tokyo apartment rents are rising at the fastest pace in 30 years, indicating a deepening inflation trend in Japan, which may pressure the Bank of Japan to adjust its monetary policy [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Rent Increase Data** - In April-May this year, rents in the Tokyo metropolitan area increased by 1.3% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since 1994 [1] - This increase is relatively modest compared to Tokyo's core inflation rate of 3.6% and the global trend of rising rents, but it signifies that the inflation cycle is penetrating the rental market [1] - **Implications for Monetary Policy** - The rising rents and general price increases provide a basis for the Bank of Japan to consider further interest rate hikes [1] - Hiroshi Kawata, Chief Asian Economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies, stated that the rent increase confirms the Bank of Japan's notion of a "normalization shift," indicating a rise in base prices that could accelerate the normalization of monetary policy [1] - **Monitoring Real Estate Market** - The Bank of Japan has identified the real estate market as a key issue that requires close monitoring in its semi-annual financial system report [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Israel-Iran conflict has led to fluctuations in international oil prices, while gold prices have shown limited response, indicating a shift in market dynamics regarding geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Gold Prices - The Israel-Iran conflict, which lasted twelve days, saw a temporary ceasefire after significant military actions, yet gold prices did not sustain upward momentum as expected [1]. - Historical trends suggest that geopolitical tensions typically drive investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, but this time, gold prices peaked at $3,400 and then retreated to around $3,330 [1]. - Analysts attribute the muted response of gold prices to a combination of factors, including market expectations of geopolitical risks and a stabilizing U.S. dollar index [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The market has partially priced in the geopolitical risks due to repeated conflicts in the Middle East this year, leading to a lack of significant safe-haven buying [2]. - Recent data indicates a slowdown in net inflows into gold ETFs and high levels of systematic trading positions in gold, suggesting a lack of buying momentum [2]. - The Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy decisions, including maintaining interest rates and a hawkish stance, have further pressured gold prices [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Despite the recent decline, gold has shown a nearly 30% increase year-to-date, outperforming other major investment assets [3]. - Analysts believe that for gold prices to continue rising in the second half of 2025, various macroeconomic and event-driven factors must align, particularly concerning U.S. fiscal deficits and dollar performance [3][4]. - The potential for U.S. economic downturns and subsequent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could enhance gold's appeal as a hedge against currency depreciation [4][5].