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万家基金“周期鬼才” 叶勇:锚定顺周期,做战略性布局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 11:44
Group 1 - The article highlights Ye Yong's unique experience and expertise in macro and industry cycles, which has led to significant investment success in sectors like energy, gold, and industrial metals [1][3][4] - Ye Yong's funds, managed under Wan Jia Fund, have shown impressive returns, with Wan Jia Trend leading at 73.07% and Wan Jia Cycle Driver at 51.75% over the past year [1] - His investment strategy is characterized by a deep understanding of macroeconomic trends and the ability to identify cyclical opportunities, particularly in the context of the current global economic shifts [1][5][16] Group 2 - Ye Yong's background as a financial journalist and his roles in equity investment have provided him with a solid foundation for understanding macroeconomic and cyclical trends [3][4] - He emphasizes the importance of recognizing the cyclical nature of various industries, advocating for a top-down investment approach rather than a narrow focus on cyclical stocks [8][9] - Ye Yong's insights into the commodity cycle indicate a shift from a decade-long downtrend to an upward cycle, particularly in resources like coal and oil [5][10] Group 3 - The article discusses Ye Yong's perspective on the "anti-involution" policy, which he believes has significant implications for macroeconomic stability and industry dynamics [16][17] - Ye Yong argues that the current economic environment necessitates a comprehensive approach to address overcapacity across various sectors, unlike previous supply-side reforms [16][18] - He predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will see a turning point in the second half of the year, potentially reversing the deflationary spiral [21][30] Group 4 - Ye Yong outlines three key investment areas for the upcoming year: industrial metals, traditional cyclical leaders, and post-cyclical sectors, indicating a strategic shift towards cyclical assets [32][34][35] - He identifies copper as a core investment due to its stable demand and supply dynamics, likening its importance to that of oil in previous commodity bull markets [13][32] - The article emphasizes the need for investors to adapt their perceptions of resource stocks, as the current market conditions favor a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend in commodity prices [10][30]