大宗周期-石油石化行业主题报告 20251216 摘要 全球原油供应预计在 2026 年增加约 130 万桶/日，低于 2025 年的 270 万桶/日增幅，OPEC+计划增产 120 万桶/日，美洲国家贡献剩余 增量，但美国页岩油增产可能因油价下跌而放缓。 2026 年全球原油需求预计维持在 110 万桶/日左右，与 2025 年持平， 中国和印度仍是主要增长动力，分别预计增加 20 多万桶/日和 30 多万 桶/日，供应增长仍略高于需求。 OPEC+在 2025 年调整策略，转向市场份额争夺，大幅增产，但由于闲 置产能有限，未来对供应格局的调整能力受限，美洲海上油气项目成为 主要新增供应来源。 俄罗斯原油产量虽受制裁影响，但通过海上浮仓维持出口量，俄乌冲突 导致其成品油出口下降，推高欧洲汽柴油裂解价差，并带动石油焦和硫 磺价格上涨。 中国国内汽柴油消费受新能源替代影响下降 4%-5%，但航煤需求保持 增长，山东地炼厂开工率因进口俄伊低价优势减弱而降低，整体成品油 供需双降但仍平衡。 Q&A 2026 年全球原油市场的供需情况如何？ 2026 年全球原油市场预计将继续面临供应过剩的局面。2025 年，OPE ...

铜、白银新高，周期怎么看？20251207 摘要 航空公司延长中日航线免费退票至 2026 年 3 月，短期冲击有限，需求 转移为主，看好航空公司表现，建议关注南航、东航、国航等港股，以 及华夏、吉祥和春秋。 上海机场免税店招标，日上部分股东反对投标，或引入新运营商，上海 机场收益预计提升。中免若未能全中，或为策略性威胁，总体利好上海 机场。 散货船运价创两年新高，BDI 指数达 2,854 点，受益于西芒杜铁矿投产 及澳洲矿山集中出货。看好散货市场，推荐海通发展、太平洋航运和招 商轮船。 极兔双十一东南亚件量增速达 78%，新市场增速 83%，持续看好。快 递行业反内卷，头部企业市占率上升，中通 10 月、11 月恢复双位数增 长，估值偏低，扩大投资。 2020 年以来大宗商品周期未过半，美元走弱背景下，看好 2026 年牛 市。周期结束取决于美元信用、供应链重建、战略收储及中国反内卷政 策。关注能源革命与大国博弈带来的投资机会。 Q&A 中日航线的调整对航空公司和票价产生了哪些具体影响？ 中日航线占全部市场份额的 3%，其撤班后，许多航空公司将运力转移至国内 航班，这对国内票价产生了一定影响。上周票价从正 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the relationship between Brazil's commodity export cycle and the fluctuations of the Brazilian Real, aiming to reveal the transmission logic and influencing mechanisms between the two [9]. - By analyzing Brazil's economic structure, commodity export cycle, and the historical trends of the Real, the report provides insights for commodity research and investment strategies [2][50]. Group 2: Understanding the Brazilian Economy Economic Aggregate - Brazil is an emerging market country with a GDP of over $2 trillion and ranks 10th among the world's largest economies, accounting for about 2.0% of the global GDP in 2024 [11][13]. - Historically, Brazil's GDP growth has experienced rapid development, debt crises, and periods of slowdown, with the current growth rate gradually declining [15]. Economic Structure - In terms of industrial structure, Brazil's economy is dominated by the service sector, followed by industry, and agriculture serves as the foundation. In 2024, the service, industry, and agriculture sectors accounted for 59.31%, 21.33%, and 5.58% of GDP, respectively [17]. - From a demand - side perspective, Brazil's economic structure is characterized by stable consumption growth, significant fluctuations in investment and trade. In 2024, final consumption expenditure accounted for about 82.6% of GDP, capital formation accounted for about 16.9%, and the net export of goods and services accounted for about 0.5% [22][24]. - Commodity exports play a crucial role in Brazil's economy, with a strong correlation between net exports and commodity net exports. In 2024, the net export of goods was about $742 billion, while the net import of services was about $546 billion [27]. Group 3: Brazil's Commodity Export Cycle Commodity Export Structure - Brazil's commodity exports are highly dependent on commodities, with iron ore, soybeans, crude oil, and sugar being the top four export products. In 2024, these major commodities contributed over $1800 billion in foreign exchange earnings [34][36]. - The underlying reason for Brazil's high - commodity export dependence is its abundant natural resources, including significant agricultural and mineral resources [38][39]. Commodity Export Quantity and Price - The sources of quantity and price contributions vary among different commodities. For sugar, crude oil, and beef, changes in export volume contribute more to export revenue growth, while for iron ore, soybeans, coffee, and others, changes in export prices contribute more [42]. - Historically, the price fluctuations of commodities have had a more significant impact on Brazil's export revenue than changes in export volume, and the RJ/CRB commodity index is positively correlated with Brazil's commodity export revenue [42][48]. Group 4: Real's Rise and Fall and Commodity Export Cycle Review 2001 - 2011: Rising Export Revenue and Appreciating Real - Due to the rapid growth of Chinese and global demand, Brazil's commodity export revenue increased by $1954 billion from 2001 to 2011, with exports to China increasing by $424 billion, accounting for 22% of the total increase [50]. - The Real strengthened due to the commodity super - cycle and the Lula government's macro - economic policies. The demand - pull effect was stronger than the negative impact of currency appreciation on export competitiveness [50][52]. 2011 - 2016: Declining Export Revenue and Depreciating Real - Affected by the slowdown of global and Chinese economic growth, oversupply of major commodities, and the expected shift in the Fed's monetary policy, Brazil's commodity export revenue decreased by about 29% from 2011 to 2016 [62]. - The Real depreciated significantly due to the deterioration of Brazil's domestic economic fundamentals and the shift in the Fed's monetary policy. The depreciation of the exchange rate did not significantly promote commodity exports [62]. 2016 - Present: Rising Export Revenue and Depreciating Real - Since 2016, with the global economic recovery, the stable growth of the Chinese economy, and the J - curve effect of the Real's depreciation, Brazil's trade balance has improved, and commodity export revenue has increased rapidly [76]. - From 2016 to 2024, Brazil's total commodity export revenue increased by $1575 billion, with an increase of $592 billion in the Chinese market, accounting for about 38%. The export revenue of crude oil has increased significantly [76]. Group 5: Insights for Commodity Research - The global commodity demand cycle is the decisive factor for commodity prices and Brazil's export performance, with a far greater impact than exchange - rate fluctuations [4][5]. - The boosting effect of exchange - rate depreciation on Brazil's exports has limitations and lag, and the magnification effect on local - currency earnings can support the expansion of commodity production capacity and provide hedging opportunities [5]. - When the US dollar price of a specific commodity strengthens and the local currency depreciates simultaneously, one can focus on short - selling opportunities for commodities with clear downward drivers in fundamentals and a high proportion of Brazilian production capacity in global supply. Conversely, when the local currency appreciates and commodity prices remain low, one can focus on long - buying opportunities for commodities with clear upward drivers in fundamentals and a high proportion of Brazilian production capacity [6]. Group 6: Appendix: Real's Historical Review and Influencing Factors Historical Review of the Real's Trends - Since the 1970s - 1980s, Brazil has experienced periods of hyperinflation, currency reforms, and exchange - rate regime changes. The Real has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation, affected by factors such as the global economic environment, commodity prices, and domestic policies [96]. Influencing Factors of the Real - International financial environment and external monetary policies: Cross - border capital risk preferences, Fed's monetary policy, and commodity prices all affect the exchange rate of the Real. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic, the Real depreciated rapidly due to the decrease in cross - border capital risk preferences [99][100][102]. - Brazil's economic fundamentals: Economic growth prospects, debt risks, and monetary policies also influence the Real. Brazil's current economic prospects are not very optimistic, with high debt risks and an inflation - targeting monetary policy framework [106][113][120].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of commodity markets, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic factors such as the dollar cycle, global economic growth quality, and policy changes in major economies, while analyzing historical trends and their implications for future commodity pricing [4][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context of Commodity Cycles - Different eras have distinct dominant factors influencing commodity prices, with a review structured around significant events and changes in the global landscape [7]. - The 1970s marked a unique period of stagflation, initiated by the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, leading to a decoupling of the dollar from gold, resulting in a chaotic economic environment where commodity prices surged despite economic recession [11][12]. - The 1980s saw a recovery with the stabilization of the dollar and economic growth in the U.S., where commodity prices were positively correlated with GDP, particularly during the period of the Plaza Accord [15][16]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Commodity Prices - The relationship between commodity cycles and economic growth attributes is significant, with emerging economies and new growth drivers having a more substantial impact on commodity trends than inventory cycles [10]. - The early 2000s experienced a super bull market in commodities driven by China's industrialization and demand, with the CRB index rising from 200 to 480 before the financial crisis [21][23]. - Post-financial crisis, the period from 2008 to 2018 was characterized by China's stimulus measures, which temporarily boosted commodity prices, but ultimately led to overcapacity and a prolonged bear market [28][32]. Group 3: Current and Future Trends - The era of de-globalization, marked by U.S.-China tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic, has reinforced the monetary attributes of commodities, leading to a recent bull market in the CRB index [35][38]. - The relationship between the CRB index and China's economic cycles has weakened, indicating a shift in the dynamics of commodity demand and pricing [39]. - The long-term price range of commodities is influenced by their monetary attributes and cyclical properties, with potential for the CRB index to rise to a new range of 500-700 due to ongoing monetary expansion [47].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive investment performance of Ye Yong, who transitioned from a financial journalist to a fund manager, achieving returns of 73.07% and 51.75% for his funds in the past year [1][3]. Investment Philosophy - Ye Yong's investment philosophy can be summarized as "good companies, low prices, and hold on," emphasizing a comprehensive evaluation of companies based on various indicators such as historical development, team composition, core technology, market competitiveness, and financial data [8]. - He believes in the importance of not only holding quality stocks during market volatility but also having the courage to increase positions [8]. Market Approach - Ye Yong emphasizes the need to align with macro and industry cycles, focusing on market style, industry beta, and then individual stock alpha [10]. - He identifies three key investment areas based on macro cycle judgments: industrial metals (like copper and aluminum), traditional cyclical leaders in sectors such as chemicals and steel, and post-cycle sectors like food and real estate [12][13][15][17]. Investment Timing and Indicators - Ye Yong advises investors to pay attention to leading indicators such as PPI, inventory cycles, and credit pulses to identify cycle positions [19]. - He provides specific buy and sell signals, including futures price structures and significant quarterly gross margin improvements for leading companies [19]. Recovery Sequence - Different cyclical industries recover in varying sequences, with chemicals and cement leading, followed by semiconductor materials, and finally consumer-related sectors like automotive and aviation [21]. Long-term Perspective - Ye Yong advocates for a long-term investment approach, suggesting that investors may need to hold cyclical stocks for 3 to 5 years to realize substantial returns [23]. - He emphasizes the importance of strong cash flow and the ability of companies to survive downturns, ensuring they can rebound when the economy improves [24]. Conclusion - Ye Yong's diverse career background contributes to his unique perspective on cyclical investments, demonstrating that understanding macroeconomic trends and maintaining patience are crucial for long-term success in investing [28].

Group 1 - The article highlights Ye Yong's unique experience and expertise in macro and industry cycles, which has led to significant investment success in sectors like energy, gold, and industrial metals [1][3][4] - Ye Yong's funds, managed under Wan Jia Fund, have shown impressive returns, with Wan Jia Trend leading at 73.07% and Wan Jia Cycle Driver at 51.75% over the past year [1] - His investment strategy is characterized by a deep understanding of macroeconomic trends and the ability to identify cyclical opportunities, particularly in the context of the current global economic shifts [1][5][16] Group 2 - Ye Yong's background as a financial journalist and his roles in equity investment have provided him with a solid foundation for understanding macroeconomic and cyclical trends [3][4] - He emphasizes the importance of recognizing the cyclical nature of various industries, advocating for a top-down investment approach rather than a narrow focus on cyclical stocks [8][9] - Ye Yong's insights into the commodity cycle indicate a shift from a decade-long downtrend to an upward cycle, particularly in resources like coal and oil [5][10] Group 3 - The article discusses Ye Yong's perspective on the "anti-involution" policy, which he believes has significant implications for macroeconomic stability and industry dynamics [16][17] - Ye Yong argues that the current economic environment necessitates a comprehensive approach to address overcapacity across various sectors, unlike previous supply-side reforms [16][18] - He predicts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will see a turning point in the second half of the year, potentially reversing the deflationary spiral [21][30] Group 4 - Ye Yong outlines three key investment areas for the upcoming year: industrial metals, traditional cyclical leaders, and post-cyclical sectors, indicating a strategic shift towards cyclical assets [32][34][35] - He identifies copper as a core investment due to its stable demand and supply dynamics, likening its importance to that of oil in previous commodity bull markets [13][32] - The article emphasizes the need for investors to adapt their perceptions of resource stocks, as the current market conditions favor a transition from a downtrend to an uptrend in commodity prices [10][30]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of resource commodities is gaining consensus in the market amid rising de-globalization trends, with a significant commodity market rally since 2020, covering various resources from coal to gold, copper, silver, and rare earths [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The new fund manager of Western Lide Fund, Guan Haoyang, emphasizes that supply is more critical than demand at this investment juncture, and beta is more important than individual stocks [1][6] - Guan believes that the ongoing commodity market rally, which has been active for five years, still presents opportunities as resource commodities transition from "cyclical goods" to "strategic assets" [1][6] Group 2: Research Background - Guan has focused on cyclical stock research since entering the industry in 2016, expanding his expertise from steel to various sectors including construction, materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal over nine years [2] - He has developed a comprehensive research framework for cyclical commodities, recognizing the high barriers between different sub-industries [2] Group 3: Resource Classification - Guan categorizes resource stocks into four types: 1. **Cyclical Assets**: Assets with explosive performance during uptrends, such as gold and silver, where price tracking is crucial [4] 2. **Thematic Assets**: Assets like rare earths that are rising in price but have not yet shown performance, focusing on price trends and market sentiment [4] 3. **Value Assets**: Stable price assets with low valuations, such as copper, where company growth and valuation matching are key [5] 4. **Dividend Assets**: Stable price assets with high dividend yields, like oil and coal, where finding assets with potential dividend recovery is essential [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Guan assesses that the current commodity cycle, which began in 2020, still holds potential due to rigid supply constraints [6] - He identifies three main supply constraints: insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the elevation of resource commodities to strategic assets through administrative measures by various countries [6][7] - The restructuring of supply chains driven by de-globalization is expected to create long-term benefits for industrial metals like copper [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The complexity,产业链, and price trends of commodities are analyzed, and the relationship between commodity prices and various economic factors is explored [6][10][14]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand balance, and economic cycles on oil prices is discussed, and future oil price trends are predicted [42][58]. - The supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of various commodities such as power coal, natural gas, aluminum, and copper are analyzed [98][106][120][166]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Classification and Characteristics - Commodities are divided into physical and non - physical commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, and financial rights [5]. - Commodities have complexity,产业链 characteristics, and price trends related to economic cycles, with factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and interest rates affecting prices [6][10]. Commodity Prices and Economic Factors - Gold has long - term value - preservation functions, and the price CAGR of some resources increased from 2020 - 2024 due to various factors [14]. - The price trends of commodities are related to GDP, inflation, and economic cycles, with industrial commodities showing higher cycle fluctuations than agricultural products [14][19]. - The price cycles of commodities have characteristics such as turning points, duration of prosperity and recession, and are affected by factors like supply shocks and technological progress [24]. Oil Price Analysis - The relationship between oil prices and factors such as the Fed's interest rate, U.S. Treasury yields, inventory, and geopolitics is analyzed [10][33][42]. - Future oil price trends are predicted based on supply - demand balance, geopolitical conflicts, and economic cycles, with oil prices expected to be relatively strong in 2024 and oscillate downward in 2025 [42]. Other Commodity Analysis - Power coal supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices expected to remain low due to sufficient inventory [98][102]. - Domestic natural gas demand is stable, with supply exceeding demand in some periods, and prices are expected to decline [106][109]. - Aluminum prices are related to PMI, GDP, and CPI, and the supply - demand situation, cost, and profit of the aluminum industry are analyzed [120][131][151]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as Fed's interest rate policy, supply - demand, and geopolitics, and are expected to be in the range of $9500 - 12000/ton [166][173].