Core Viewpoint - The strategic importance of resource commodities is gaining consensus in the market amid rising de-globalization trends, with a significant commodity market rally since 2020, covering various resources from coal to gold, copper, silver, and rare earths [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The new fund manager of Western Lide Fund, Guan Haoyang, emphasizes that supply is more critical than demand at this investment juncture, and beta is more important than individual stocks [1][6] - Guan believes that the ongoing commodity market rally, which has been active for five years, still presents opportunities as resource commodities transition from "cyclical goods" to "strategic assets" [1][6] Group 2: Research Background - Guan has focused on cyclical stock research since entering the industry in 2016, expanding his expertise from steel to various sectors including construction, materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and coal over nine years [2] - He has developed a comprehensive research framework for cyclical commodities, recognizing the high barriers between different sub-industries [2] Group 3: Resource Classification - Guan categorizes resource stocks into four types: 1. **Cyclical Assets**: Assets with explosive performance during uptrends, such as gold and silver, where price tracking is crucial [4] 2. **Thematic Assets**: Assets like rare earths that are rising in price but have not yet shown performance, focusing on price trends and market sentiment [4] 3. **Value Assets**: Stable price assets with low valuations, such as copper, where company growth and valuation matching are key [5] 4. **Dividend Assets**: Stable price assets with high dividend yields, like oil and coal, where finding assets with potential dividend recovery is essential [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Guan assesses that the current commodity cycle, which began in 2020, still holds potential due to rigid supply constraints [6] - He identifies three main supply constraints: insufficient capital expenditure, a decrease in quality mines, and the elevation of resource commodities to strategic assets through administrative measures by various countries [6][7] - The restructuring of supply chains driven by de-globalization is expected to create long-term benefits for industrial metals like copper [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The complexity,产业链, and price trends of commodities are analyzed, and the relationship between commodity prices and various economic factors is explored [6][10][14]. - The impact of geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand balance, and economic cycles on oil prices is discussed, and future oil price trends are predicted [42][58]. - The supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors of various commodities such as power coal, natural gas, aluminum, and copper are analyzed [98][106][120][166]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Classification and Characteristics - Commodities are divided into physical and non - physical commodities, including energy, metals, agriculture, and financial rights [5]. - Commodities have complexity,产业链 characteristics, and price trends related to economic cycles, with factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and interest rates affecting prices [6][10]. Commodity Prices and Economic Factors - Gold has long - term value - preservation functions, and the price CAGR of some resources increased from 2020 - 2024 due to various factors [14]. - The price trends of commodities are related to GDP, inflation, and economic cycles, with industrial commodities showing higher cycle fluctuations than agricultural products [14][19]. - The price cycles of commodities have characteristics such as turning points, duration of prosperity and recession, and are affected by factors like supply shocks and technological progress [24]. Oil Price Analysis - The relationship between oil prices and factors such as the Fed's interest rate, U.S. Treasury yields, inventory, and geopolitics is analyzed [10][33][42]. - Future oil price trends are predicted based on supply - demand balance, geopolitical conflicts, and economic cycles, with oil prices expected to be relatively strong in 2024 and oscillate downward in 2025 [42]. Other Commodity Analysis - Power coal supply - demand is relatively balanced, with prices expected to remain low due to sufficient inventory [98][102]. - Domestic natural gas demand is stable, with supply exceeding demand in some periods, and prices are expected to decline [106][109]. - Aluminum prices are related to PMI, GDP, and CPI, and the supply - demand situation, cost, and profit of the aluminum industry are analyzed [120][131][151]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as Fed's interest rate policy, supply - demand, and geopolitics, and are expected to be in the range of $9500 - 12000/ton [166][173].