业内人士指出，从过往经验来看，每一轮大宗商品周期都很长（一轮完整的大宗商品周期为25-30年， 其中上行8-10年，下行15-20年），一旦方向确立，大宗商品周期则会持续很长时间，不会在两三年结 束。展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛也成为机构普遍共识。此外，中金公司认为，随着短期情绪 释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 2月24日，春节后的第一个交易日，A股三大指数均大幅高开，有色板块表现尤为强势。揽尽有色金属 龙头的热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格飙涨超3.6%。截至发稿，有色ETF华宝 （159876）获资金实时净申购720万份，呈现出资金看好有色后市，积极入场布局。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把 握整个板块的贝塔行情。 中国银河证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮超级铜周期 都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The long-term allocation value of precious metals like gold and silver remains strong, driven by geopolitical events and the changing global political landscape [2][12][21] - Despite a recent historic drop, the removal of inappropriate leverage enhances the safe-haven attributes of gold and silver, making them attractive for long-term investment [3][19][20] - The recent volatility in gold and silver prices, with significant daily fluctuations, highlights the importance of momentum trading strategies [14][15][19] Group 2: Digital Currency - Digital currencies, particularly Bitcoin, follow a four-year cycle characterized by one year of decline followed by three years of growth, with the current year being the final downtrend phase expected to last until September or October 2025 [22][24][26][30] - While there may be technical rebounds during this downtrend, the overall long-term outlook for digital currencies remains bullish [30][89] Group 3: Industrial Metals - A significant shortage of copper is anticipated in the coming years, driven by increased demand in the new energy and AI sectors [5][34][36] - Copper prices have reached $14,000, aligning with previous target prices, and are expected to rise further after a consolidation phase [6][62][97] - The overall commodity sector is not finished rising, as supply shortages and previous price suppression will lead to increased demand [43][102] Group 4: Stock Market Outlook - A-shares are favored in the short term due to clearer policy factors and supportive measures from the Chinese government, while H-shares are more affected by uncertainties in U.S. Federal Reserve policies [8][46][107] - The upcoming Two Sessions and anticipated economic growth targets are expected to bolster A-shares [48][107] Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is believed to have bottomed out, with expectations for upstream profit margins to expand in the coming months due to strong commodity price momentum [9][50][111] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate further, supported by high trade surpluses and improved manufacturing competitiveness, which will aid in the revaluation of Chinese assets [10][52][116]

业内人士指出，从过往经验来看，每一轮大宗商品周期都很长（一轮完整的大宗商品周期为25-30年， 其中上行8-10年，下行15-20年），一旦方向确立，大宗商品周期则会持续很长时间，不会在两三年结 束。展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛也成为机构普遍共识。此外，中金公司认为，随着短期情绪 释放与交易拥挤度明显下降，相关资源股行情并未结束，历经短期调整后中期有望重拾升势。 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把 握整个板块的贝塔行情。 中国银河证券建议把握"AI飞跃+百年变局"共振下的有色金属超级周期。回顾历史，每一轮超级铜周期 都对应一段清晰而强大的宏观叙事，而本轮周期同时叠加了"AI科技革命"与"全球秩序重塑"两大长期逻 辑，其持续性和战略意义不亚于战后重建、我国对外开放等历史阶段。 有色板块止跌反弹的势头愈发强劲。2月12日，中证有色指数继续反弹，一度涨逾1.5%，跟踪该指数的 热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）开盘后持续走高，目前涨超1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, indicating a potential super cycle driven by the "AI leap" and "century change" narratives [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 3, the non-ferrous sector saw a rebound, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising by 3% [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, the net inflow into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has reached nearly 1.7 billion yuan, increasing its fund size to 2.59 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is supported by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [1] - Historical data indicates that commodity cycles last long, typically 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years and downward trends lasting 15-20 years [1] - Institutions generally agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [1] Group 3: ETF Coverage - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of indices, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant trading volume and price increases observed in related ETFs [1][3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to enter a super cycle driven by the convergence of the "AI leap" and "century change," with historical patterns indicating that commodity cycles can last 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years [3] - Major non-ferrous metal ETFs, such as the one from China Merchants (159690), have a high concentration in key commodities like copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), which together account for nearly 60% of the portfolio [3] Group 2 - Analysts predict that by 2026, the non-ferrous metal industry may experience a bull market driven by a combination of monetary, demand, and supply factors [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is characterized by a "leverage effect," where rising metal prices lead to significant profit increases for mining companies, resulting in a "Davis double play" scenario where net asset value increases multiple times compared to the commodity price itself [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active performance of the agricultural sector, particularly with the surge in agricultural stocks like Nongfa Seed Industry, which hit the daily limit, driven by a record grain production of 14,298 billion jin, an increase of 1.68 billion jin, marking a historical high and maintaining stability above 14 trillion jin for two consecutive years [1] - The agricultural and rural affairs department indicates that the new cycle of bulk commodities has begun, supported by a weakening dollar and a rebound in the BDI index, suggesting a foundation for price increases in commodities [1] - The demand for agricultural products is expected to grow due to increased industrial demand, although the supply has been relatively ample due to favorable weather conditions over the past two years, which could lead to competition for agricultural products if weather conditions change [1] Group 2 - As of January 28, 2026, the National Grain Industry Index (399365) rose by 3.01%, with significant increases in constituent stocks such as Kangsheng Biological (up 10.16%) and Nongfa Seed Industry (up 10.06%) [2] - The Grain ETF (159698) increased by 3.84%, with the latest price reported at 1.14 yuan, closely tracking the National Grain Industry Index, which reflects the price changes of listed companies in the grain industry [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Grain Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include major companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech, collectively accounting for 51.88% of the index [2]

业内人士近日表示，在新的信用体系下，黄金或将成为所有资产估值的锚。洪灏分析认为，在"十五 五"规划建议方向明确、市场轮动有序的背景下，2026年中国资本市场有望保持稳健。预计大宗商品周 期将沿"贵金属-有色金属-能源"路径传导，从而带来板块轮动机会。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋 锂业、山东黄金、云铝股份、中金黄金、藏格矿业。 有色金属ETF(512400)，场外联接(A类：004432；C类：004433)。 银河证券指出，伴随美元走弱，资金持续撤离风险资产，而市场对美国货币政策独立性存在一定担忧， 美欧分歧反复升级，再叠加中东等区域地缘局势不确定上升，共同促使避险资金向贵金属板块集中， 金、银贵金属价格同步突破历史区间，持续刷新历史新高。 1月26日晚间，紫金矿业发布重磅海外并购公告，公司旗下控股上市平台紫金黄金国际，拟以55亿加元 （约合人民币280 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a historical high and attracting substantial net inflows, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector's future performance [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) surged by 3%, setting a new historical high as of January 28 [1] - The ETF has seen real-time net subscriptions exceeding 1.25 billion units, with a total net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days, bringing its total fund size to 2.34 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the "AI leap + century change" resonance, indicating a super cycle in non-ferrous metals driven by macroeconomic narratives [1] - Historical patterns show that commodity cycles are lengthy, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, with upward trends lasting 8 to 10 years, suggesting a prolonged bullish phase for non-ferrous metals [1] - Institutions widely agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its upward trajectory, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [1] Group 3: ETF Coverage - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) comprehensively cover various sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the entire sector's beta performance [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a historical high, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising over 4% and reaching a new historical peak, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 128% in the index it tracks [1] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has seen a net subscription of over 78 million units in just 10 minutes, with a total net inflow of nearly 900 million yuan in the last 20 trading days [1] - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the "AI leap + century change" resonance under the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, indicating that this cycle is supported by strong macro narratives [1] Group 2 - Historical experience indicates that each commodity cycle lasts long, typically 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years and downward trends lasting 15-20 years, suggesting that the current non-ferrous metal cycle is likely to continue for an extended period [2] - Institutions generally agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [2] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the sector's beta performance [2]

Group 1: Precious Metals Outlook - The current precious metals market is not yet over, with gold prices remaining within a reasonable range and not showing signs of overvaluation, currently around $4,500 [2] - The strong performance of gold is transmitting to silver and other precious and base metals, driven by market concerns over the credibility of the dollar credit system [2] - Many commodities and metal prices are still at relatively low levels, indicating potential for upward movement as long as gold remains stable [2][3] Group 2: Chinese Capital Market - The Chinese capital market is expected to maintain steady operation in 2026, with clear policy directions focusing on technological innovation and consumption upgrades [4] - Historical data suggests that a strong start to the year, such as a nearly 3% increase in the Hang Seng Index, correlates with a 70% to 80% probability of annual gains [4] - The market's upward trend is supported by a noticeable rotation towards large financial stocks, indicating a shift of funds towards heavyweight sectors [4] Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are considered to have investment value, with Hong Kong being one of the most attractively valued markets globally [5] - The phenomenon of H-shares trading at a premium to A-shares reflects a new pricing structure in the market, suggesting significant investment opportunities in A-shares [5] - A diversified "all-weather" investment portfolio is recommended, incorporating gold, bonds, and stocks to mitigate risks, although gold and stocks may not always move inversely [6]