基金分析报告 深度价值基金池 202508：保持绝对收益 2025 年 08 月 12 日 ➢ 深度价值属于格雷厄姆"捡烟蒂"式投资方式。按内在价值定义的不确定性 程度和估算难度，价值投资理念可大致分为：深度价值、成长价值、景气价值。 深度价值的投资理念源自于格雷厄姆，在 1929-1933 年美国经济大萧条期间， 许多股票价格远远低于其清算价值，投资此类股票即便是立刻清算也可获得不错 的收益。 ➢ 深度价值型基金池：历史收益稳健，高风险收益比。2015 年 2 月 2 日至 2025 年 8 月 7 日，基金池年化收益率为 11.81%，相对于偏股基金指数年化超 额收益为 4.26%，同时组合年化波动仅 20.25%，年化夏普为 0.58，具备较高的 收益稳定性。从 24 年年中开始，组合在市场风格频繁切换中组合出现一定程度 的回撤，25 年以来仍保持较高绝对收益。 ➢ 动态、风格配置和选股均贡献明显超额。组合的超额收益主要来自于动态、 风格和选股的贡献。偏好低动量、低弹性、低波动率风格，价值属性突出，当前 更偏中盘。从板块布局来看，2020 年之前基本都在周期和金融间切换，近期提 高了对于消费赛道的配置比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of established private equity firms in China is highlighted, with many achieving significant performance recoveries and attracting renewed investment interest after a period of underperformance [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Recovery - Established private equity firms are experiencing a performance rebound, with some reporting year-to-date returns exceeding 40% [1]. - Notable firms like淡水泉投资 and 重阳投资 have reported year-to-date returns of 15.98% and over 15%, respectively, with近一年收益率 around 35% [1][2]. - 源乐晟 has also seen a turnaround, with year-to-date returns reaching 35.54% and over 40% in the last six months [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Various strategies are being employed by established private equity firms, including deep value investing and growth-oriented investments, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence [2]. - The adaptability of investment strategies to different market conditions is emphasized, with firms adjusting their approaches based on asset performance [2]. Group 3: Research and Organizational Reforms - Firms are actively reforming their research and investment frameworks to enhance adaptability and decision-making [3]. - For instance, 淡水泉投资 has restructured its research organization to improve its understanding of emerging industries and market dynamics [3]. - 星石投资 has implemented a multi-fund manager system to enhance decision-making and performance accountability [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook for the market remains positive, with expectations of structural opportunities driven by policy support and active capital [4]. - Key areas of focus include the revaluation of high-quality Chinese assets, the globalization of competitive industries, and advancements in technology innovation [4]. - 源乐晟 anticipates favorable conditions in both Chinese and U.S. stock markets, driven by economic resilience and adjustments in investor sentiment [4].

Core Insights - Michael Burry's investment philosophy emphasizes identifying mispriced assets during market failures, rooted in the "margin of safety" theory, leading to significant investment opportunities [2][3] - Burry's ability to analyze risk data and predict market downturns allowed him to make calculated bets, such as shorting subprime mortgages, which ultimately resulted in substantial profits [3][4] - His contrarian approach to investment, leveraging behavioral finance concepts, highlights the importance of recognizing and capitalizing on collective cognitive biases in the market [4][5] - Burry's long-term investment strategy, characterized by patience and a focus on intrinsic value, contrasts sharply with the short-term focus prevalent in the hedge fund industry [5][6] Group 1 - Burry's investment philosophy is based on finding pricing discrepancies in undervalued assets during market misjudgments, as evidenced by his analysis of subprime mortgage contracts [2] - He identified that 80% of subprime borrowers had falsified income documents, leading to a 47% deviation from intrinsic value, which he termed the "value abyss" [2] - Burry's approach to risk assessment involved creating extensive historical data models to predict market behavior, allowing him to make informed investment decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The ability to break away from consensus thinking is crucial for investors, as demonstrated by Burry's focus on overlooked data, such as the rise of "ninja loans" in the subprime market [4] - Burry's investment in silver futures during the cryptocurrency market crash exemplifies his contrarian strategy, based on the belief that precious metals would regain historical value amid fiat currency crises [4][5] - His average holding period of 4.7 years reflects a commitment to long-term value creation, contrasting with the industry average of 1.3 years [5] Group 3 - Burry's insights extend beyond investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of data analysis and logical reasoning in an era of information overload [6] - His philosophy encourages investors to seek opportunities in overlooked data and to maintain conviction in their analysis during market volatility [6] - The quote "In the depths of fear, find the data; in the heights of euphoria, wait for value" encapsulates Burry's approach to navigating market cycles [6]

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's stock price has rebounded after a significant decline from its peak in June 2024, attributed to easing adverse factors related to GLP-1 drugs and expanded collaborations with traditional and telehealth companies, leading to improved performance expectations for the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Financial Performance - Despite management lowering the sales growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 17% and operating profit growth to 20%, the company's expanded production capacity supports optimistic market expectations [5][6]. - The company reported a free cash flow of $1.6 billion in Q1 2025, a 91.6% year-over-year increase, while the fiscal year 2024 free cash flow was $10.25 billion, down 16.6% [6][8]. - Analysts project a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.5% to 15.1% for Novo Nordisk through fiscal year 2027, indicating strong revenue and profit growth despite ongoing price declines for GLP-1 drugs [6][7]. Market Position and Valuation - Novo Nordisk's forward P/E ratio is 18.47, significantly lower than its 1-year average of 26.53, 5-year average of 31.15, and 10-year average of 24.91, suggesting it is undervalued compared to peers like Eli Lilly, which has a forward P/E of 36.04 [9][10]. - The company's PEG ratio of 1.28 is also lower than the industry average of 1.80, reinforcing the notion of significant investment value [10]. Growth Opportunities - The company is expected to benefit from a large unmet demand, with over 550 million diabetes patients and more than 800 million obesity patients globally, alongside a long treatment care cycle [7]. - Novo Nordisk's direct-to-consumer model through NovoCare, starting March 5, 2025, will offer Wegovy at a promotional price of $499 per month, enhancing its market reach [4][5]. Stock Performance and Outlook - The stock price stabilized at $58 after a significant drop, with a potential upward trend despite facing resistance at $81 [13][16]. - Analysts suggest that the stock has significant upside potential, with a target price of $132.20 based on adjusted earnings per share projections for fiscal year 2027 [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article introduces the China Europe Dividend Advantage Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund, managed by Lan Xiaokang, highlighting its strong performance in risk control and excess returns, with a focus on achieving returns that exceed the benchmark while maintaining a balanced investment approach [2][3]. Performance Summary - The fund has shown impressive performance metrics, with a five-year annualized return of 15.7%, significantly outperforming its benchmark and the CSI 300 index [3][4]. - Year-to-date (YTD) return stands at 8.24%, with a total return of 106.31% over 7.1 years, indicating a stable upward trend in net value [4][5]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is -25%, and under Lan Xiaokang's management, it has maintained a maximum drawdown of only -22%, showcasing effective risk management [8]. Management Background - The fund was established in April 2018, initially managed by renowned fund manager Cao Mingchang, with Lan Xiaokang as a co-manager. Since 2021, Lan has taken sole management, adopting a deep value investment style [6][12]. - Lan Xiaokang's investment strategy combines macroeconomic analysis with a bottom-up stock selection approach, focusing on long-term cash flow generation and valuation [17][18]. Investment Strategy - The fund maintains a balanced industry allocation, with a preference for sectors such as energy and non-ferrous metals, while adhering to a low valuation strategy [14][20]. - Lan Xiaokang emphasizes the importance of valuation over industry growth rates, seeking assets with stable growth and mispriced cyclical assets [18]. Holder Structure - The fund has attracted significant institutional investment, with an institutional holding ratio of 84% as of the end of last year, indicating strong confidence from institutional investors [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and investment strategy of Penghua Optimal Value Stock A, managed by Wu Xuan, emphasizing its ability to control risks while achieving excess returns and long-term capital appreciation [2][3]. Performance Summary - The fund has shown strong performance, with a five-year annualized return of 11.4%, consistently ranking among the top in its category [3][4]. - Year-to-date (YTD) return is 8.77%, with a one-year return of 15.21%, outperforming its benchmark and the CSI 300 index [4][8]. - The fund's maximum drawdown during Wu Xuan's management is only -19.3%, indicating effective risk management [10]. Fund Management - Wu Xuan has been managing the fund since its inception in late 2019, with a focus on deep value investing and risk control [7][13]. - The fund's total net asset size is 30.13 billion, with a low turnover rate, reflecting a long-term holding strategy [2][20]. Holdings and Sector Allocation - The fund maintains a balanced sector allocation, with significant investments in traditional sectors such as non-bank financials, banking, food and beverage, and textiles [15]. - Major holdings include China Telecom and China Mobile, which together account for over 18% of the portfolio [17][18]. Investor Composition - The fund has seen an increase in institutional ownership, reaching nearly 93% by the end of last year, indicating a preference for its stable investment style [21]. - The largest institutional holding accounts for approximately 14% of the fund, which is within regulatory limits to mitigate risks associated with large redemptions [24].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" emphasizes linking fund manager compensation to performance, with significant salary adjustments based on performance relative to benchmarks [1] Group 1: Fund Manager Performance - Chen Ying, managing the Jin Ying Technology Innovation fund, achieved a remarkable 85.96% excess return over the benchmark in the past three years, focusing on AI and technology sectors [3][4] - Sun Quan from the Fu Guo fund has also excelled, with a focus on TMT sectors, achieving significant returns through investments in AI-related companies [5] - Jin Xiao Fei, managing the Peng Hua Medical Technology fund, has delivered a 41.11% return over three years, utilizing a top-down approach to navigate the pharmaceutical sector [6] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Chen Ying emphasizes a diversified portfolio with a focus on emerging technologies, while also managing risks through strategic allocation to blue-chip stocks [4] - Sun Quan's strategy involves identifying competitive companies within high-growth sectors, particularly in AI and renewable energy [5] - Jin Xiao Fei employs a top-down analysis to time market entries and exits, focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and AI healthcare [6] Group 3: Fund Characteristics - The Jin Ying Technology Innovation fund has a total scale exceeding 72 billion, with a high concentration in technology stocks [3] - The Fu Guo fund managed by Sun Quan has a total scale of over 82 billion, with a significant portion in AI-related stocks [5] - The Peng Hua Medical Technology fund has a scale of approximately 44 billion, with a concentrated portfolio strategy [6] Group 4: Market Trends and Insights - The article highlights the importance of understanding market cycles and the specific stages of industries when making investment decisions [4][6] - Fund managers are encouraged to adapt their strategies based on market conditions, with a focus on long-term growth potential [5][6] - The performance of funds is closely tied to the ability of managers to identify and capitalize on emerging trends, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors [22]

Group 1 - The deep value investment philosophy is derived from Graham's "cigar butt" approach, focusing on stocks priced significantly below their liquidation value, particularly during economic downturns [8][10] - The deep value fund pool has demonstrated stable historical returns, with an annualized return of 11.05% from February 2, 2015, to May 8, 2025, outperforming the equity fund index by 4.54% [10][13] - The fund pool exhibits a high-risk return ratio, with an annualized volatility of 20.46% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.54, indicating strong return stability [10][13] Group 2 - The excess returns of the fund pool are primarily attributed to dynamic allocation, style configuration, and stock selection, favoring low momentum, low elasticity, and low volatility styles [2][13] - The current portfolio has shifted towards increased allocation in the consumer sector while maintaining exposure to manufacturing and TMT sectors [21][22] - The deep value fund pool is defined by absolute undervaluation characteristics, with a focus on funds that have positive exposure to the BP factor and high expected net profit [24][25] Group 3 - The current deep value fund list includes several funds with varying scales and returns, such as Guangfa Stable Strategy with a scale of 2.39 billion and a return of 4.55% [25] - The fund pool's historical performance shows resilience even during market style shifts, maintaining positive absolute returns despite some drawdowns [13][21] - The fund pool's industry allocation has primarily been in financial and cyclical sectors, with recent adjustments to increase consumer sector exposure [21][22]

Core Insights - The article explores the impact of regional factors on investment trends, specifically focusing on capital inflow rates and distribution rates across North America, Western Europe, and emerging Asian markets [2][4]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Distribution Rates - Capital inflow rate serves as an indicator of investment interest, while incorporating distribution rates provides a better understanding of fund returns relative to investment levels [2]. - High capital inflow periods are more common, reflecting the long-term expansion phase of the private equity sector, where the performance of quality funds offsets that of underperforming funds [4]. - High distribution periods typically commence about three years after economic recessions, likely due to deep value investments made during downturns yielding substantial returns [4]. Group 2: Regional Investment Behavior - European markets exhibit rapid transitions between capital inflow and return periods with minimal transitional phases, while the U.S. and Asian markets show smoother transitions [4]. - The investment interest in the U.S. and Asian markets appears to be less influenced by macroeconomic factors, indicating relative stability in investor interest [4]. - The dominance of high distribution in the global private equity market during the 2010s is attributed to the loose monetary policies following the 2008 financial crisis [4]. Group 3: Changes Post-2018 - Since 2018, there has been a noticeable increase in investor interest in U.S. and European investments compared to returns, while Asian markets are shifting towards a return period similar to deep value investment returns seen in the 2020s [5]. - Other markets also experienced a return period during the market rebound in 2021 [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As funds invested in 2020 begin to yield returns, the Asian market, primarily driven by China, is moving towards net positive distributions [6]. - If the economic momentum in the region continues, there may be more instances of distributions exceeding capital inflows, although this could reverse as returns normalize and inflows increase [6]. - In contrast, increasing capital inflows in Europe and the U.S. may indicate declining private equity returns, potentially slowing new investments [6].