Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline of nearly 3% in international gold prices has sparked extensive discussion in the investment community regarding whether the gold bull market has ended, revealing a complex interplay of short-term bearish and long-term bullish factors in the gold market [1][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The recent "truce" agreement between China and the U.S. on tariff issues, which involves suspending 24% of tariffs while maintaining a 10% baseline rate and providing a 90-day buffer, has alleviated previous trade tensions, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and a corresponding decrease in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. - Historical context shows that after the easing of trade tensions in 2018, gold prices experienced a short-term decline of 15%, but rebounded by 30% within 12 months as geopolitical conflicts resurfaced, indicating that current geopolitical instability could still elevate gold's safe-haven premium [3][5]. Monetary Policy - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have shifted from July to September due to the truce, with overall rate cut expectations for the year being adjusted downward, resulting in a significant rise in the U.S. dollar index and a corresponding increase in U.S. Treasury yields, which diminishes the attractiveness of non-yielding gold [3][5]. - Despite a temporary dip in inflation expectations following lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, the Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate a cautious approach to rate cuts, which could lead to increased volatility in the gold market [5]. Long-term Investment Logic - The ongoing accumulation of gold by global central banks, particularly from emerging markets, provides a solid support base for gold prices, with the World Gold Council reporting that central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2025, with over 70% of this coming from emerging markets [5]. - The persistent high U.S. fiscal deficit rate of 6% and negative real interest rates continue to highlight gold's anti-inflation properties, suggesting that long-term demand for gold remains robust despite short-term market fluctuations [5]. Investment Management Tools - The introduction of the "Wanzhou Wallet" by Wanzhou Gold Industry enhances capital management for investors, allowing for quick fund injections as backup capital to avoid missing out on buying opportunities during market volatility [7]. - The wallet's features, including instant fund transfers with MT5 accounts and intelligent stop-loss functions, aim to improve capital turnover efficiency and protect investors' principal during significant price fluctuations in the gold market [7].

在货币政策方面，原本市场预期美联储可能在 7 月降息，可受中美关税休战等因素影响，降息预期推迟至 9 月，全年降息幅度预期也被下调。 这使得美元指数暴涨，创下近两个月新高，美债收益率回升，让无息的黄金资产吸引力减弱。 此前，美国关税政策反复无常，加征半导体、医药品关税的威胁与部分商品临时豁免等混乱信号，加重了市场对通胀和经济衰退的担忧，推动 黄金年内四次刷新历史高位，接近3300美元/盎司。而此次关税 "休战"，让市场紧张情绪缓和，部分资金从黄金撤离，转向风险资产，导致金 价短期内压力重重。 近期黄金市场经历剧烈波动，国际金价一度回调近3%，引发市场热议。当投资者还在为黄金牛市是否终结争论不休时，市场已悄然呈现短期 利空与长期利好交织的复杂图景。深入剖析地缘政治与货币政策的双重脉络，黄金的长期价值逻辑依然稳固，回调或为投资者提供了难得的布 局窗口。 中美达成关税 "休战" 协议，决定暂停 24% 的关税征收，保留 10% 基准税率，缓冲期 90 天。这极大缓解了贸易紧张局势，市场风险偏好迅速 回升，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力大打折扣，金价随即承压下跌，市场情绪的这一转变直接引发了金价回调。 中长期来看，若通胀持 ...