Group 1 - The core observation is that HONOR is expected to regain its position in the top five smartphone brands in China due to the success of its 400 series and X70 models, despite a 2% year-on-year decline in overall smartphone sales in the first eight weeks of Q3 2025 [5][12]. - In Q2 2025, HONOR achieved a remarkable 42% year-on-year growth, driven by its impressive product lineup, particularly the popular 400 series and Magic 7 series [16]. - The HONOR X70 series stands out in the entry-level market with features like an 8300mAh battery and fast charging, although the overall brand sales saw an 8.1% decline in Q3 2025 [12]. Group 2 - The European smartphone market saw a return to growth in Q2 2025, with HONOR being a standout performer, achieving a 20% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, confirming the success of its full-price product strategy [15][23]. - In the first half of 2024, HONOR's Magic V2 and Samsung Galaxy Z Flip5 each captured over 20% of the foldable smartphone market share, indicating strong competition in this segment [9]. - The Chinese foldable smartphone market experienced a 27% year-on-year growth in 2024, with HONOR securing a significant market share thanks to the strong sales of its Magic Vs 2 and Vs 3 series [35].

Core Viewpoint - The foldable screen market is experiencing a tug-of-war between excitement and stagnation, with manufacturers launching new products while facing inherent challenges such as high prices and quality inconsistencies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Honor and Xiaomi have recently launched new foldable models, indicating a competitive push in the foldable screen segment [1]. - IDC predicts that the foldable screen market will enter a "small year" by 2025, with manufacturers adopting more conservative strategies due to fluctuating market growth [1][3]. - Gold Yuan Securities forecasts that by 2025, global foldable phone shipments will increase, with China's market share rising to 31%, marking it as a "second growth curve" for smartphones [3]. Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - Many consumers find foldable screens appealing but face practical issues, leading to limited repurchase intentions [4][6]. - Despite curiosity about foldable devices, actual sales remain lower than traditional models due to concerns over price and usability [5][6]. - A significant portion of mainstream applications still uses simple adaptation methods, resulting in poor user experiences [7]. Group 3: Technical Challenges - The high cost of foldable devices is primarily due to the expensive components like hinges and flexible screens, which account for over 60% of the BOM cost [6]. - Foldable devices often compromise on core specifications to maintain their unique form factor, leading to a perception of inadequate value compared to traditional smartphones [6][7]. - Durability issues persist, with high repair costs and limited availability of parts contributing to consumer hesitance [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - TrendForce predicts that foldable phone shipments will reach 19.83 million units by 2025, maintaining a penetration rate of approximately 1.6% [8]. - The anticipated entry of Apple into the foldable market with the iPhone Fold in 2026 is seen as a potential catalyst for industry growth, although its impact on overall sales remains uncertain [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that while Apple's brand strength could enhance foldable screen adoption, other factors like pricing and application relevance may continue to limit broader market penetration [10][11].

Core Insights - The foldable screen market is experiencing a tug-of-war between excitement and stagnation, with new product launches from major players like Honor and Xiaomi indicating a competitive landscape, yet data shows a decline in growth rates and challenges in market penetration [1][2][4] Market Performance - In 2024, China's foldable screen shipments reached 9.17 million units, marking a 30.8% year-on-year increase, but the fourth quarter saw a decline of 9.6% compared to the previous year, ending a streak of nine consecutive quarters of growth [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw shipments of 2.84 million units, a 53.1% year-on-year increase, but the second quarter dropped to 2.21 million units, reflecting a 14% year-on-year decline, indicating volatility in market performance [2] Industry Trends - The foldable screen segment is projected to account for 31% of the global market by 2025, becoming a significant growth driver in the high-end smartphone market [4] - Despite ongoing product and technological advancements, the market is facing challenges in expanding its user base and attracting new customers, as the novelty of foldable designs is wearing off [5][6] Consumer Sentiment - Many consumers perceive foldable screens as "good-looking but not practical," with high prices and usability issues hindering their transition from novelty items to essential devices [8] - The average price for foldable devices remains high, with some models priced over 5,000 yuan, leading consumers to question the value compared to traditional smartphones [8][9] Future Outlook - TrendForce predicts that foldable phone shipments will reach 19.8 million units in 2025, maintaining a penetration rate of approximately 1.6% [10] - The anticipated entry of Apple into the foldable market with the iPhone Fold in 2026 is expected to be a significant catalyst for industry growth, although its impact on overall market dynamics remains uncertain [11][12]