粤海投资 20260202 摘要 粤海投资东江水业务在 2026 年基价协议中预计增长 2.4%，深圳和东 莞供水量稳定，非东江水业务虽有所下降，但并购项目有望平滑影响。 公司计划维持 65%的分红比例，并控制资本开支，以应对东江水源续约 所需的大额资金需求。 房地产业务方面，天河城商场出租率良好，但写字楼租赁面临挑战。高 速公路业务受新公路分流影响，但预计将逐渐恢复。电厂业务受益于低 煤价，利润预期良好。酒店和百货业务规模较小，影响有限。 东江水续约金额预估为 500 亿至 540 亿港币，公司需充分准备资金。 广东省政府可能倾向于按合同到期时间续约，粤海投资在未来的竞争中 具有一定优势，因其已运营东江水 25 年。 2027-2029 年香港供水价格谈判预计参考通胀率和汇率，涨幅不会太 大。2026 年盈利增长主要依靠财务费用下降和营业利润增加，东江水 价格上涨是主要驱动力。 公司计划对符合条件的自来水和污水处理项目进行提价谈判，以实现平 均价格的小幅上升，抵消接水管业务下滑带来的影响。优先考虑自来水 项目收购，追求高单位数的合理回报。 Q&A 粤海投资在 2025 年的业绩表现如何？各项业务的具体情况是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The East River water supply project has been crucial for Hong Kong's water security and economic development over the past 60 years, symbolizing the deep connection between Jiangxi and Hong Kong [1][3][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - The East River water supply project was initiated in response to a severe drought in Hong Kong in 1963, leading to the construction of an 83-kilometer water supply line [2][3]. - The project was officially opened on March 1, 1965, providing a stable water supply that ended Hong Kong's water scarcity issues [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Over the past 60 years, Hong Kong's GDP has increased by more than 266 times, largely supported by the stable water supply from the East River [3]. - The annual water supply capacity from the East River has expanded from 6.8 million cubic meters to 2.423 billion cubic meters [3]. Group 3: Environmental Protection - The East River source area has maintained water quality above national standards due to strict ecological protection measures implemented by local communities [5][6]. - Significant sacrifices have been made by local populations in the East River source area to protect the water source, including shutting down over 160 enterprises and rejecting numerous investment projects [6][7]. Group 4: Community Engagement - Recent initiatives have seen Hong Kong youth engaging in activities to promote awareness and appreciation of the East River source, fostering a sense of connection and gratitude towards the source area [11]. - The local government has successfully transformed ecological advantages into economic benefits, with the contribution of ecological industries to local GDP rising from 23% in 2018 to 61% in 2024 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The "Dancing Water Droplet Exhibition" in Hong Kong celebrates the 60th anniversary of water supply from the Dongjiang River to Hong Kong, highlighting the importance of this water source for the region's development and prosperity [4][26]. Group 1: Water Supply and Infrastructure - The Dongjiang water supply project has been operational for 60 years, providing over 30 billion cubic meters of water to Hong Kong, meeting approximately 80% of its water needs [14][24]. - The project has undergone multiple expansions and improvements, increasing its supply capacity significantly since its inception [17][24]. - In 2024, the Pearl River Delta Water Resource Allocation Project will provide an emergency backup water source for Hong Kong, enhancing the reliability of water supply [18]. Group 2: Environmental and Community Impact - The Dongjiang water source area has seen significant ecological restoration, with vegetation coverage increasing from 10.2% to 95% and the number of plant species rising from 6 to over 100 [7][8]. - Local communities have made sacrifices, such as reducing agricultural land and relocating from protected areas, to ensure the preservation of water quality [11][12]. - The transformation of former mining areas into green spaces and sustainable agricultural practices reflects the community's commitment to environmental protection [6][7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The Dongjiang water supply system has integrated advanced technologies for monitoring and managing water quality and flow, including automated sampling and real-time data transmission [22][23]. - The implementation of smart water management systems has improved operational efficiency and environmental protection measures [22][23]. Group 4: Cultural Significance - The water supply from Dongjiang to Hong Kong symbolizes the deep connection between the two regions, fostering a sense of gratitude and shared identity among residents [26][28]. - Educational initiatives and community events emphasize the importance of water conservation and the historical significance of the water supply project [26][27].