REITs 分析框架 20250910 摘要 中国 REITs 市场采用外部管理模式，市值增长相对缓慢，与内部管理模 式为主的西方市场存在效率差异。预计未来三年内市场规模将从 2000 亿元增长至 5,000 亿元，但长期发展仍面临不确定性。 中国公募 REITs 未来有望扩展至办公楼、水利工程、文旅、养老等更多 资产类型，为投资者提供多样化的投资机会，但基础设施类资产比重较 大，更偏向逆周期投资模式。 长期来看，中国公募 REITs 的属性更偏向权益类资产，其长期复合回报 率应与权益市场相同甚至更高，但可能因资产构成原因略低于权益。 当前中国 REITs 市场 4%~5%的长期内部收益率（IRR）可能偏低，存 在资产价格泡沫化倾向，从二级市场价格出发进行长期投资需谨慎。 中国 REITs 市场短期趋势不乐观，可能处于箱体震荡状态，建议逐渐调 整配置品类，关注分子端有复苏逻辑的资产，如经营改善和收益增长的 标的。 中国 REITs 的合理中枢应围绕 1 倍净资产价值（NAV）上下运行，利差 是决定资产价格的重要因素，经济下行筑底阶段或货币政策宽松时是投 资 REITs 的较好时机。 未来 REITs 市场将产 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese public REITs market has shown strong growth since its inception in 2021, with a market capitalization exceeding 200 billion yuan and 66 projects listed, making it the largest in the Asia-Pacific region [2][7][11] - The market is currently in a policy dividend period, supported by favorable regulations and increasing investor recognition, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [6][4] - The investment attractiveness of REITs is gradually increasing, with a rebound in secondary market valuations and a year-to-date return of 17.4% as of June 13, 2025 [14][4] Market Development Review - The market has benefited from progressive policies, including the issuance of the National Development and Reform Commission's 1014 document, which has laid a foundation for sustainable growth [6][2] - New asset types, such as data centers and senior living facilities, are gaining traction, with significant oversubscription rates for recent projects, indicating strong market demand [7][11] - The issuance of holding-type real estate ABS has reached 13.603 billion yuan, contributing to the development of a multi-tiered REITs market [11][14] Future Market Outlook - The expansion of asset types and the acceleration of initial offerings and expansions are expected to enhance the market ecosystem, providing diverse investment options for investors [25][26] - The construction of a multi-tiered REITs market is deemed necessary to cater to varying risk preferences and asset development stages, covering the entire lifecycle from cultivation to exit [27][28] - Increasing the diversity of the investor base, including public funds and foreign capital, is essential for enhancing market liquidity and depth [29][4] Investment Strategy - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage," the REITs market is viewed positively for the second half of the year, although valuation risks should be monitored as the market valuation center rises [4][37] - Strategies such as primary market participation, dividend trading, and expansion gaming are recommended for investors to optimize returns [42][46][49] - The market's performance is expected to be influenced by new issuances and unlockings in the second half of the year, with a total of 28 projects involving 26.8 billion yuan set to unlock [40][41]