Core Viewpoint - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing pressure on stock prices in the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decline in market volume and prices, despite strong earnings performance from shipbuilding companies [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Holdings - In the first half of 2025, the shipbuilding sector's stock prices underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable year-on-year decline in fund holdings for major shipbuilding companies [2]. - Specifically, the fund holding ratio for China Shipbuilding decreased by 3.8 percentage points and 4.9 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively, although there was a significant increase in Q2 compared to Q1, indicating renewed institutional interest [2]. Group 2: Earnings Performance - Shipbuilding companies reported impressive earnings growth, with profits increasing significantly more than revenues, driven by high-priced orders from around 2022 entering a delivery phase and a decrease in steel costs compared to 2021 [3]. - Key subsidiaries of China Shipbuilding, such as Waigaoqiao and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, have shown continuous growth in net profit margins and return on equity (ROE) over multiple reporting periods [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The shipbuilding market is facing a downturn, with new orders and new ship prices under significant downward pressure, as the shipping market has experienced a notable decline in freight rates, with major ship types seeing average price drops exceeding 20% year-on-year [4]. - Global new ship orders fell to 1.67 million CGT in May 2025, marking the lowest monthly level in nearly four years, and the Clarkson Global Newbuilding Price Index decreased from 189.96 in September 2024 to 186.69 in May 2025 [4]. - The decline in the domestic shipbuilding market is attributed to the impact of the U.S. Section 301 sanctions and a lower willingness of leading domestic shipyards to accept new orders [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The order capacity ratios for bulk carriers and oil tankers are currently low at 10.4% and 15%, respectively, indicating that the shipbuilding cycle has not yet reached its peak [5]. - BIMCO estimates that the potential number of ship demolitions over the next decade will reach 16,000 vessels, totaling 700 million deadweight tons (DWT), which is significantly higher than previous estimates [5]. - Despite short-term order pressures, the low order capacity ratios for mainstream ship types, particularly bulk carriers and medium to large oil tankers, suggest potential for future market recovery, especially with the anticipated impact of U.S. interest rate cuts on supply-demand dynamics [6]. Group 5: Recommendations - The shipbuilding sector is recommended for continued investment, with strong endorsements for companies such as China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) and China Power (600482.SH), along with suggestions to monitor China Shipbuilding Defense (600685.SH), CIMC (000039.SZ), Yaxing Anchor Chain (601890.SH), and Runbang Co., Ltd. (002483.SZ) [6].