12月22日，国际金银价格同步攀升至历史高位，成为年内金融市场瞩目的焦点。数据显示，现货黄金价格日内上涨1.33%，最高 触及每盎司4420.47美元，刷新历史纪录，年内累计涨幅达68%。白银表现同样强劲，伦敦现货白银价格日内涨幅超过2.4%，同 步创出新高，年内累计上涨近139%。 贵金属市场的强劲走势迅速传导至股票市场，A股贵金属板块整体走强。港股方面，万国黄金集团、中国黄金国际、中国白银集 团、紫金矿业及老铺黄金等个股均呈现显著上涨态势。 自去年以来，黄金价格持续走强，即便在已累积较大涨幅的基础上仍能再创新高，反映出其背后坚实的基本面与市场情绪支 撑。本轮金价上涨主要受以下四方面因素共同推动： 一、美元汇率走势是影响黄金价格的关键变量。历史数据表明，黄金价格通常与美元呈反向波动关系。由于国际黄金主要以美 元计价，美元走弱时，同等金额所能购买的黄金数量相应减少，从而推动金价上行。当前美元处于降息周期，汇率趋弱，对黄 金价格构成直接支撑。 二、市场对美联储降息的预期持续存在。在利率下行环境中，非生息资产黄金相较于其他金融资产的吸引力逐步提升。尤其是 在美股科技股等传统高收益资产进入调整阶段时，黄金的避险与配 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 螺丝钉也做了美股、全球股票指数、美债指数的估值表。见文章下面图片。每周日会在公众号、以及「 今天几星 」小程序，每周定期更新。 1. 这周全球股票市场先下跌后反弹。 美股市场，非美股市场微涨微跌，波动不大。 这周周一到周三，全球市场略有下跌，到周四周五反弹了一些。 2. 本周前半段全球市场下跌，原因也跟日元加息有关。 这也是因为当时80-90年代，日本家庭负债率过高，大量的资金在泡沫的价格，投入到了日本股票、房地产等上面。 之后用了20多年的时间，才逐渐消化掉杠杆。 在日本动画《蜡笔小新》中，也有这个桥段：小新的爸爸广志，1990年的时候，背负了32年的贷款。 1990年前后，刚好是日本房地产估值最高的阶段。之后日本房地产很多出现腰斩级别的下跌，但负债还是存在的。 本周日元加息落地，日元加息25BP，小幅加息，符合市场预期。 日元加息其实并不是黑天鹅事件，叫灰犀牛可能更合适。 （PS：黑天鹅是市场难以提前预料的、影响很大的风险；灰犀牛则是市场都看得见的。） 因为日元的利率提升并不是今年才出现的。 日元为了刺激经济，利率从80年代最高的8.5%上下，一路下降到2015年的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent market trends, particularly focusing on the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on global markets and the valuation of dividend indices. Group 1: Market Trends - The overall market has seen a decline, with the closing rating at 4.2 stars [1] - All market caps, including large, medium, and small caps, experienced a downturn, with small-cap stocks declining the most [2] - Growth style stocks faced significant declines compared to value style stocks [3] - The Hong Kong stock market showed minor fluctuations, with a slight decrease, less volatile than the A-share market [5] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December, aligning with market expectations [6][7][8] - The Fed's future rate cut pace remains uncertain, with concerns about the high level of U.S. debt and interest payments [10][11] - Market expectations suggest further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, but the pace may be slower than previously anticipated, leading to market volatility [12][13][14] Group 3: Implications for Global Assets - A "hawkish" rate cut approach may benefit global assets in the short term, but uncertainty around future cuts could lead to significant market fluctuations [16][17] - Short-term interest rates may rise, and the dollar could appreciate temporarily, negatively impacting non-dollar assets [18][19] - Historical data indicates that rapid rate cuts can lead to bullish trends in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as seen from 2019 to 2021 [25][26] Group 4: Valuation Insights - The article provides a valuation table for various dividend indices, highlighting metrics such as yield, price-to-earnings ratio, and return on equity [31] - The valuation data indicates that certain indices are undervalued and suitable for investment, while others are overvalued [48] - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of interest rates and their impact on market opportunities, suggesting a strategy of buying undervalued assets during downturns [30][37]

王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 联系人 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [Table_Reportdate] 2025年12月07日 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [美元降息与日元加息预期，资产再平衡 Table_NewTitle] 下寻找确定性 ——资产配置周报（2025/12/01-2025/12/05） [table_main] 投资要点 总 量 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。12月5日当周，全球股市多数上涨，A股表现相对较好；主要商品期货 中铜、原油、铝收涨，黄金收跌；美元指数小幅下跌，非美货币升值。1）权益方面： ...

来源：滚动播报 美元扩大跌幅，兑一篮子货币触及一个月低点，因在美国总统特朗普暗示可能提名凯文·哈塞特担任下 一任美联储主席后，美国的降息预期升温。荷兰国际集团分析师Chris Turner在一份报告中称，哈塞特 的观点被认为与曾多次呼吁降息的特朗普的观点最为一致。市场对该消息的反应是美元走软、短期收益 率的降幅快于长期收益率以及风险资产上涨。Turner称，在美联储12月10日做出决定之前，这可能一直 是市场的主导主题。DXY美元指数跌至98.968。 ...

弱美元降息指引美股风险，强美元降息指引全球性风险 20251202 美元降息对美股和全球流动性有何影响？ 美元降息通常会导致美股下跌，并引发全球流动性风险。历史上，美国在经济 下行周期中通过降息来刺激经济，但这次情况有所不同。过去的全球化框架下， 美国通过高回报率的资本输出和低成本制造业进口，形成了贸易逆差和资本顺 差的循环。这一循环使得美国能够持续扩张信用，推动经济增长。然而，当前 美国面临的问题是美元信用出现问题，美债发行困难。 在过去，当全球经济总 量进入下行周期时，美国的经济表现相对较好，因为其上市公司的利润主要依 赖于垄断定价，而非总量需求。因此，当其他国家面临库存、产能和价格下行 周期时，美国反而吸引了更多资本流入美元和美债。然而，现在由于美元信用 问题，美元走弱，美债发行困难，这一传统循环难以继续。 特朗普时期强调 AI 发展和降低利率的政策，短期内可能有效，但长期来 看可能导致金融市场不稳定，再工业化需要强劲的政府支持。 应付利息在美国财政支出中占比非常高，使得国债发行变得更加困难， 即使美国试图通过降息来刺激需求，也难以实现预期效果，从而导致美 股表现不佳。 为什么现在若美元降息，美股反而会 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 81, categorizing it as "overheated," suggesting a high level of investor optimism and potential market risks [4][8][20] - Key investment themes identified include non-ferrous metals, banking, and low-altitude economy, each with specific drivers and related stocks [4][8] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals theme is driven by expectations of demand increase due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, leading to a price increase for copper and aluminum [4] - Copper prices are supported by financial attributes, supply constraints, and resilient traditional demand, while aluminum faces tight domestic capacity and limited overseas growth [4][8] Banking Sector - The banking sector is highlighted for its high dividend yield, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [4] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, bank stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds like insurance and social security [4][8] Low-Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is positioned for growth, with the upcoming Asia General Aviation Exhibition expected to attract over 300 companies from 21 countries, indicating significant international interest [4] - The report emphasizes the vast market potential in this sector, particularly in infrastructure and aircraft manufacturing, enhanced by improved information processing capabilities [4][8] Market Sentiment and Strategy - The report suggests that when market sentiment is above 70, it may indicate resistance, while levels below 30 could provide support, guiding investment strategies [8][20] - Investors are advised to consider reducing positions in an overheated market to avoid potential losses from market corrections [20]

2. 安全感不是吹出来的，是验出来的 大家最关心的肯定还是安全。 我自己是那种"疑心病"很重的人。 投睿盛之前，我不仅看了他们的审计报告，还特意去查了他们的托管机构。 最让我放心的一点是透 明。收益怎么来的、风控怎么做的，月报里写得明明白白。这种"打开天窗说亮话"的态度，在现在的圈 子里真的属于稀缺资源。 而且，最最最重要的是——提现顺畅。 我不信画饼，我只信落袋为安。到期的收益我都试过提现，速 度和流程都很正规，没有任何卡顿。 3. 圈子很重要 上周跟几个投睿盛比较多的老哥聚了一次。 本来以为会像其他项目聚会一样，大家都在 喊单、吹牛。结果大家聊的全是全球宏观经济、美元降息影响、RWA 赛道前景。 那一刻我就感觉，这 次跟对人了。 在这个市场里，能沉下心来做长周期布局的，基本都是看懂了趋势的聪明钱。跟着聪明 钱走，大概率不会错。 最近大环境确实不太平，我看几个主流群里大家情绪都不高，要么是被套了，要么是拿不住割肉了。这 几天私信问我怎么操作的人不少，其实我现在操作很少，大部分仓位都挪到了睿盛环球那边去做长周期 配置了。 以前大家但我一样，听到"长周期"、"锁仓"这些词就头大，第一反应就是："是不是想圈钱跑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are beneficial for global stock markets, particularly in the context of economic growth and inflation trends [1][53][54] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024, with multiple cuts leading to a total reduction of 0.25% by October 2025 [4][11] - Economic growth rate is the primary long-term factor influencing interest rates, with a slowing economy typically leading to lower rates [6][54] Group 2 - Inflation rates significantly impact short-term interest rate movements, with high inflation often necessitating rate hikes to control it [6][7] - The article highlights that from 2020 to mid-2022, inflation surged to 9.1%, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement the most aggressive rate hikes in two decades [9][10] - As of September 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the U.S. has decreased to around 3%, indicating a potential stabilization of inflation [10] Group 3 - The article discusses the correlation between interest rates and various asset classes, noting that lower rates generally lead to higher asset prices across stocks, bonds, and real estate [17][18] - Since the initiation of the rate-cutting cycle, global stock markets have shown significant gains, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading the rise due to their lower valuations at the start of the cycle [15][24] - Specific performance metrics include a 54.1% increase in the Hang Seng Index and a 63.46% rise in the CSI All Share Index since the rate cuts began [24] Group 4 - The article explains how interest rate changes affect the U.S. dollar and other currencies, with a decrease in U.S. rates leading to a stronger renminbi against the dollar [31][33] - The depreciation of the dollar relative to other currencies during the rate-cutting cycle has facilitated capital inflows into renminbi-denominated assets, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [36][37] Group 5 - The article addresses common questions regarding the timing of market reactions to rate cuts, indicating that markets often price in expected rate changes weeks in advance [39][40] - It also discusses the ongoing pressure on the U.S. government to manage its debt through lower interest rates, with projections indicating that rates may continue to decline [44][46] - The cyclical nature of interest rates is emphasized, with historical patterns showing alternating periods of increases and decreases over the past 10-20 years [47][52]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since the second quarter of this year, with expectations for further deepening of the recovery due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [2][5]. Market Outlook - The main factors influencing the market will be the interest rate levels, with a high probability of continued rate cuts into 2026. The local housing demand release is crucial for further recovery, with mortgage rates being a significant variable [5][9]. - Since the peak in 2021, Hong Kong property prices have adjusted approximately 29% by the second quarter of 2025, indicating a substantial correction. The market has shown a trend of month-on-month improvement since June, with total monthly housing transactions stabilizing around 5,000 units [9][10]. Recovery Dynamics - A moderate recovery is the baseline expectation, but potential upward risks should be monitored. The ideal inventory turnover period is estimated to return to around two years within the next 12 months [10][11]. - Key catalysts for demand include accelerated overseas capital inflow, significant US dollar interest rate cuts, and further inflow of mainland capital [11][12]. Sector Analysis - The residential and retail markets are recovering more rapidly than the office sector. The retail market has shown positive changes since May, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more balanced [6][58]. - The office market, while showing some positive demand signals, still faces high vacancy rates, particularly in non-core areas, and is expected to lag in recovery [6][58]. Long-term Positioning - The valuation of Hong Kong real estate stocks remains low compared to historical extremes, suggesting potential for further recovery. The current market valuation is around the historical tenth percentile, indicating it is not overly high [5][11]. - The long-term return characteristics of Hong Kong real estate stocks show an average annual compound return of slightly above 8%, with dividends contributing significantly to total returns [51][52]. Retail and Office Market Trends - The retail property sector is expected to recover sooner than the office sector due to healthier supply-demand dynamics, with retail vacancy rates at historical lows [58][59]. - The office market faces challenges with rising vacancy rates and anticipated supply increases, which may exert downward pressure on rental rates [59][62].