文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 不同地区股票市场不是同涨同跌的。了解多个股票市场，投资者可以把握更多的投资机会。 全球投资还可以显著降低波动风险。 那么，如何做好全球投资，分享全球市场长期上涨的红利呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了通过指数基金投资全球股市的方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 全球 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 刻用料理 数量分 投资 我的时间? 长按添加@课程小助手,回复「全球」 免费领取《全球指数投资指南》课程 更有课程笔记、思维导图 帮你快速搞懂全球指数投资, 分享全球市场长期上涨的红利 - Band Home Home - Start - Bangland - Ba 基金有风险,投资需谨慎 und #螺丝钉小知识 银行螺丝钉 美元降息,对A股港股有利吗? 有朋友问,美元如果降息,对我们投资会 有啥影响呢? 美元利率下降,对港股的利好更强一些。 当然，历史不是简单的重复。 A 股港股的估值毕竟比去年五点几星的时候 高了一大截。再遇到美元降息会有利好, 但利好的程度也下降了。 (1) 利率之于资产，就好比地 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish trend, with significant increases in trading volume and stock prices, particularly in stocks like Changjiang Securities and Dongfang Fortune [1][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3704.77 points before a slight pullback, with trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan for three consecutive days, indicating a strong buying atmosphere [1][6] - In the recent "Digging Gold" competition, participants achieved impressive returns, with the champion recording a return of 36.28% over five trading days, highlighting the competitive nature of the event [1][4] Group 2 - The "Economic News" and COFCO Futures are hosting a national futures simulation competition to help investors enhance their trading skills and adapt to market changes, with a focus on providing a low-cost trial and high-reward growth opportunity [2][10] - The competition allows participants to trade with simulated funds of 1 million yuan, providing a risk-free environment for learning and practicing trading strategies [12][13] - Participants in the futures competition have reported gaining valuable insights and trading strategies through interaction with experienced traders in the competition's community [9][10] Group 3 - Analysts are optimistic about certain sectors, including optical fiber, copper-clad boards, the Internet of Things, brokerage firms, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals, especially in the context of anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts [8][10] - The expectation of a declining U.S. dollar is seen as beneficial for stimulating the prices of precious and non-ferrous metals, creating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [8][10] - The recent performance of participants in the futures competition indicates a strong interest in trading lithium carbonate futures, which have shown significant price volatility and potential for profit [8][10]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天A股港股继续上涨，非常强势。 截止到收盘，大盘回到4.5星。 中证全指等指数也超过了去年10月1日的最高点。 大中小盘股都上涨。 中小盘上涨略多。 成长风格强势。 1. 最近美股出来了两组比较重要的经济数据。 一是前段时间，美股公布了7月的非农就业数据，增加7.3万人。 创业板等成长风格指数大幅上涨。 价值风格相对低迷。 红利等指数略微下跌。 A股有风格轮动的特点。最近几个交易日，这种风格轮动也比较明显。 价值、成长轮番上阵。 这个阶段屁股要坐得住，持有的低估品种都会有上涨阶段的。但频繁的追涨杀跌，反而不利于收益。 港股也大幅上涨。 港股科技指数领涨，上涨超3%。 美元降息预期提升，对港股也是利好。 大幅低于之前市场预期的10.4万人。 同时对5-6月，之前已经发布的就业数据，做了大幅度下修。 5月数据，从增加14.4万，下修到增加1.9万；6月数据，从增加14.7万，下修到增加1.4万。 一般就业数据不及预期，代表经济有可能有衰退迹象。 另一个数据，是周二刚刚发布的美股最新的CPI同比增长率。 美股7月CPI数据同比上升2.7%，低于预期。 另外就是昨天中美之间就 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point from October 8 last year, reaching a nearly four-year high with a closing price of 3683.46 points, up 0.48% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau reported that the July CPI data indicated relatively mild inflation pressures, alleviating concerns about a sharp rise in inflation due to tariffs [1] - The market perceives that despite a slight rebound in core inflation, the overall mild CPI data has removed a significant obstacle for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Traders have significantly increased their expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability now at 95% [1] Commodity Market - Following the news, the U.S. dollar index fell, leading to an increase in futures prices for metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, gold, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2] Futures Trading Competition - The "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" has attracted participants who are bullish on non-ferrous metal futures, with the competition ongoing and offering cash rewards for positive returns [3][4] - The competition features a simulated trading environment with a starting capital of 1 million yuan, allowing participants to practice trading without financial risk [3][4] - Participants can benefit from various educational resources, including trading teaching sessions and market analysis, enhancing their trading skills [4][6] Investment Insights - Experts in the competition suggest that the current downtrend of the U.S. dollar index is favorable for stimulating the prices of precious and non-ferrous metals [4] - There is a belief among participants that the Shanghai Composite Index may face resistance around the 3700 and 4000 points, with a potential bull market if it breaks through the 4000-point barrier [8][10] - The artificial intelligence sector is identified as a significant investment theme, with opportunities in related sub-sectors that are still undervalued [10]

Group 1 - The national high-standard cement market price is 339.7 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from last week and down 42.5 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [1][3] - The average cement inventory of sample enterprises is 66.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from last week and down 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] - The average cement shipment rate is 44.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last week but down 2.0 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The construction materials sector (SW) decreased by 2.31% this week, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [2] - The average price of float glass is 1295.3 yuan/ton, up 56.7 yuan/ton from last week but down 175.7 yuan/ton from the same period in 2024 [3] - The domestic non-alkali roving market price is stable, with mainstream transaction prices ranging from 3200 to 3700 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from last week [3] Group 3 - The real estate industry has shown signs of recovery, with the added value of the real estate sector turning positive, indicating a clearing in the supply chain [4][5] - The cement and glass industries are recommended for investment due to their potential benefits from demand recovery and industry consolidation [5][6] - The glass fiber market is expected to see growth in high-end products due to technological advancements and increased demand in sectors like wind power and new energy vehicles [7][8] Group 4 - The construction materials sector is experiencing a supply-side contraction, which is expected to improve the short-term supply-demand balance [9] - The government is expected to continue promoting domestic demand and consumption, which will positively impact the home improvement and building materials market [10][11] - Companies with strong growth intentions and those benefiting from national subsidy policies are recommended for investment [11]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, may provide short-term support for the dollar index, limiting its decline amid concerns over interest rate cuts [1] Economic Data Impact - The dollar index (DXY) fell to a three-year low due to worries about interest rate cuts [1] - Francesco Pesole from ING suggests that the non-farm employment report could indicate a gradual slowdown in job growth, but not enough to significantly increase bets on a rate cut in July [1] - There is an expectation that inflation may rise in the coming months, which could further support the dollar [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities is perceived as a response to domestic economic challenges, particularly the difficulty in selling government bonds and the pressure on the dollar [1][8][41] - The Trump administration's "America First" policy has led to trade restrictions and tariffs, causing uncertainty among global investment institutions, which typically prefer stable markets [5][6][10] - Following the attack on Iran, the yield on U.S. ten-year bonds decreased, indicating a temporary restoration of confidence in government bonds, although the underlying issues of excessive spending and debt remain unresolved [12][14][41] Group 2 - The potential for rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to increased inflationary pressures in the U.S., complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts [24][39] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: while there are reasons to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, rising oil prices could reignite inflation, making it cautious about any rate cuts [27][31][39] - The outcome of the U.S. actions in Iran and the subsequent oil market reactions will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions in July [37][41]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces intense pressure regarding interest rate decisions, with significant implications for U.S. debt and economic stability, as political and financial dynamics intertwine [1][3][10] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a willingness to lower interest rates if inflation is under control, leading to a surge in market expectations for a July rate cut from 18.6% to 77.3% [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts, reflecting a shift in sentiment amid political pressures [3][8] - The Fed's dot plot reveals a split among committee members, with some predicting no rate cuts until 2025, while others foresee at least two cuts, highlighting uncertainty in monetary policy direction [8] Group 2: U.S. Debt and Economic Implications - The U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed military spending and rise to $952 billion by 2025, indicating a growing fiscal burden [1][3] - A report warns that the U.S. debt exhibits characteristics of a "Ponzi scheme," with debt-to-GDP ratio at 123%, significantly above the 60% international warning threshold [6] - The potential for a debt crisis in 2025 is underscored by the need to refinance $9.3 trillion in maturing debt, which constitutes one-third of total public debt [3][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's comments, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.11%, while U.S. Treasury yields fell, indicating a strong market reaction to the prospect of rate cuts [4] - Economic indicators present a mixed picture, with a healthy unemployment rate of 4.2% contrasted by rising initial jobless claims and a significant drop in consumer confidence [6][8] - The impact of tariffs under Trump's policies is projected to increase inflation, with potential long-term economic consequences [6][8] Group 4: Global Economic Context - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with central banks globally reducing their dollar reserves, leading to a 57.4% share of dollar reserves, the lowest in 30 years [6] - The shift towards gold as a reserve asset is evident, with countries like Poland, China, and Turkey increasing their gold holdings, reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [6][10] - The Federal Reserve's decisions are seen as critical in determining the future of the dollar's dominance in the global financial system [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current market situation is not a repeat of the 9/24 rally, but the bull market is still ongoing and even improving [2][3]. Market Conditions - The market has experienced significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,400 points and trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion [3]. - The previous market conditions before 9/24 were characterized by low trading volumes and a declining index, which created a scenario for a strong rebound [3]. Positive Factors - **Fundamentals**: The domestic macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery after several years of adjustment, with major international banks like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank becoming more optimistic about China's economic growth [4]. - **Liquidity**: The expectation of a shift to a rate-cutting cycle in the U.S. is anticipated to positively impact global capital markets, enhancing risk appetite [5]. - **Industry Trends**: Opportunities arising from trade tensions, such as advancements in self-sufficiency in semiconductors and new energy sectors, are expected to drive growth despite broader market fluctuations [6]. Investment Strategy - Investors should focus on selecting the right sectors to capitalize on ongoing market trends rather than relying on rapid market gains [6].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to easily abandon its fight against inflation, facing a dilemma of either economic recession or stagflation [1] - ADP employment data indicates a poor job market, suggesting that the Fed may have to lower interest rates if inflation continues to cool [1] - The market predicts that the dollar may experience four interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of a cut in June approaching zero [1] Group 2 - A-shares experienced a significant drop, largely influenced by the decline in Hong Kong stocks, with both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices showing a typical bearish trend [3] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both fell over 2%, highlighting the strong correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 3 - The market opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, breaking below the 30-day moving average, indicating a downward trend after a period of consolidation [5] - The next key support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities are between 3316 and 3324 points [5] Group 4 - The ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite indices fell over 1%, with more than 4600 stocks declining across the two markets [7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.25 trillion, indicating heightened selling pressure and a preference for risk aversion among investors [7] - Despite the short-term bearish trend, the mid-term weekly and monthly structures remain stable, suggesting a potential new cycle may emerge after the current divergence [7]