上海元祖梦果子股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告 公司代码：603886 公司简称：元祖股份 上海元祖梦果子股份有限公司 上海元祖梦果子股份有限公司2025 年半年度报告 重要提示 一、 本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证半年度报告内容的真实性、准确 性、完整性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 二、 公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 三、 本半年度报告未经审计。 四、 公司负责人张秀琬、主管会计工作负责人刘政及会计机构负责人（会计主管人员）王尹声 明：保证半年度报告中财务报告的真实、准确、完整。 五、 董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 无 六、 前瞻性陈述的风险声明 √适用 □不适用 本报告中所涉及的未来计划、发展战略等前瞻性描述不构成公司对投资者的实质承诺，敬请 投资者注意投资风险。 七、 是否存在被控股股东及其他关联方非经营性占用资金情况 否 八、 是否存在违反规定决策程序对外提供担保的情况 否 九、 是否存在半数以上董事无法保证公司所披露半年度报告的真实性、准确性和完整性 否 十、 重大风险提示 公司已在本报告中详细描述可能存在的风 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10][7] Core Views - Due to pressure in the festive gifting consumption market and a decrease in net profit in the first half of the year, the sales growth expectations for core categories such as cakes and Chinese and Western pastries have been revised downwards. The opening rhythm of new stores and the improvement in sales expense ratios have also been adjusted. The earnings forecast for the company has been updated, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.81, 0.94, and 1.12 yuan respectively, down from previous forecasts of 1.41 and 1.52 yuan for 2025 and 2026. Given the company's ongoing multi-brand and multi-channel layout, the recovery in profitability is considered to have strong certainty, leading to a target price of 14.58 yuan based on a 18x PE for 2025 [4][10][11] Financial Information Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 2,267 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 2.0%. The operating profit is expected to be 274 million yuan, down 20.1% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 195 million yuan, a decrease of 21.5% year-on-year. The EPS for 2025 is estimated at 0.81 yuan [6][12] - The gross margin is projected to be 62.8% in 2025, with a net margin of 8.6%. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.9% [6][12] - The company plans to open more than last year, with over 770 stores by July 2025, indicating a slight acceleration in store openings [9][10]