敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2026 年 03 月 25 日 猪周期反转在即，如何一键布局高含猪量投资标的 ——永赢中证畜牧养殖产业 ETF 投资价值分析 在居民消费稳步修复、生猪养殖行业产能持续去化、供给收缩基础不断夯实的 背景下，新一轮猪周期正在逐步积蓄动能。自 2021 年建立能繁母猪调控"总开 关"以来，政策端持续完善行业调控机制，为低效产能出清、供给节奏稳定和价 格波动平抑提供了制度性支撑。中证畜牧养殖产业 ETF（159165.OF）精准跟 踪中证畜牧养殖产业指数，聚焦生猪养殖及相关产业链核心环节，在成分股筛 选和权重分配上显著向龙头企业倾斜，具备较高的"猪含量"和较强的周期表征 能力，为投资者把握畜牧养殖板块盈利改善与估值修复机会提供了便捷的指数 化投资工具。 风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，亦 不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com.cn 研究助理 董晓宇 dongxiaoyu@ ...

Group 1 - The livestock farming industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission calling for capacity reduction and operational control as of September 2025 [1][19] - The pig cycle typically follows a pattern of price fluctuations, with each upward cycle lasting about 1-2 years and downward cycles lasting about 1-3 years, indicating potential for price increases following supply reductions [1][19] - Current signals suggest that the pig farming industry is at a relatively low valuation, with indications that capacity reduction may accelerate [1][19] Group 2 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index, launched on December 31, 2021, includes 50 listed companies in sectors such as livestock products, animal health, feed, meat products, and dairy products, serving as a benchmark for the overall performance of the livestock farming sector [2][20] - The index has a base point of 1000 and aims to reflect the core fluctuations of the livestock farming industry, with a high concentration of leading companies [4][23] - The top five constituent stocks account for 50.1% of the index, while the top ten account for 67.6%, indicating a significant concentration advantage in the industry [4][23] Group 3 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index has outperformed its peers by 5 percentage points since its inception, with a current PE (TTM) ratio of 19.02, indicating a low valuation at the bottom of the cycle and potential for valuation recovery [6][26] - The index's historical performance has shown significant volatility due to the cyclical nature of the livestock farming industry [6][26] - The index is designed to provide a high-purity tool for tracking the cyclical movements of pig farming, benefiting from the resilience and profit elasticity of leading enterprises during current cost-focused cycles [4][23] Group 4 - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include major players such as Muyuan Foods (15.6% weight), Wens Foodstuff Group (14.7%), and Haida Group (9.1%), highlighting the dominance of leading companies in the livestock sector [25] - The index is positioned to benefit from ongoing policy incentives and signals of cyclical reversal, making it an attractive investment option for those optimistic about the long-term development of the livestock farming industry [33]