农牧渔板块今日（10月10日）表现强劲。全市场首只农牧渔ETF（159275）早盘低开后迅速拉升翻红， 盘中场内价格涨幅一度达到1.5%，截至午间收盘，涨0.3%。 成份股方面，农产品加工、动保、畜牧养殖等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至午间收盘，冠农股份大涨 6.89%，生物股份涨4.52%，罗牛山、立华股份、瑞普生物、美农生物等多股跟涨超3%。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 · | | | | | | F9 盘荷盘后 婴加 九梦 面述 工具 (0 ) | | | 农牧渔ETF | | 159275 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1,019 | | | | 159275/表粒油ETF] 11:30 价 1.006 涨跌 0.00310.30%) 均价 1.011 成交量 0 | | | | 2025/10/10 | | E | 006 | | +0.003 +0.309 | | 1,011 | | of Children | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [81]. Core Insights - The animal health industry is gradually emerging from a low point, with a focus on undervalued companies that exhibit both elasticity and certainty. The report highlights that the ongoing internal competition has led to a market cleanup, with a recovery in the prices of veterinary raw materials and significant improvements in the year-on-year issuance of various vaccine types [70][71]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in companies that have performed well, whether through product innovation, marketing strategies, or capital operations, which is reflected in their financial performance [70][71]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Issuance - In the first eight months of the year, most vaccine types showed significant year-on-year growth, particularly in swine vaccines such as foot-and-mouth disease vaccine (+11.0%), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome vaccine (+38.1%), and others. The report notes that the cat tri-vaccine saw a remarkable increase of +78.9% [10][11][9]. - The report indicates that the growth in vaccine issuance is driven by multiple factors, including the continued prosperity of farming, increased livestock inventory, disease outbreaks, and the introduction of new products [11][10]. Veterinary Raw Materials - As of September, the Veterinary Price Index (VPI) was reported at 69.22, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.0% and a year-on-year increase of 8.7%. This marks the first month-on-month increase after three consecutive months of decline [56][59]. - The report highlights that the price of various veterinary raw materials has improved, with significant increases in the prices of products like tiamulin and florfenicol, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [56][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are undervalued yet possess strong growth potential, such as RuiPu Biological, KeQian Biological, and others. It notes that the competitive landscape is shifting, with larger companies outperforming smaller ones, indicating a potential for market consolidation in the future [70][71].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中牧股份（600195）2025 年中报点评 推荐（维持） 化药延续增长，经营同比改善 目标价：8.7 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 2025 年中报：上半年实现营收 27.93 亿，同比增长 12.63%，归母净 利 8176.20 万元，同比增长 30.18%，扣非归母净利 8166.70 万元，同比增长 39.35%。 评论： ❖ 风险提示：下游景气度走弱，新品研发与推广不及预期，产品竞争加剧等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,017 | 6,648 | 7,222 | 7,714 | | 同比增速(%) | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 6.8% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 71 | 232 | 295 | 350 | | 同比增速(%) | -82.4% | 227.8% | 26.8% | 18.6% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.2 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to solve the systematic rotation problem of styles by conducting a bottom-up quantitative market trend analysis. It identifies the dominant asset characteristics that represent the future market's mainstream style through a comprehensive comparison of assets[1][5] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model considers five style stages based on the asset's industry lifecycle: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value[1][5] - The priority for asset comparison is based on the sequence: growth (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend (D)[1][5] - The model uses the spread of asset advantage differences to capture the trend changes of top assets, similar to factor timing[20] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has shown good explanatory power for past A-share style rotations, achieving an annualized return of 27.25% since 2009[15] Model Backtesting Results - **Quantitative Market Trend Analysis Framework**: - 2009: Asset Comparison Strategy 133%, Wind All A 82%, Excess Return 51%[18] - 2010: Asset Comparison Strategy 7%, Wind All A -7%, Excess Return 14%[18] - 2011: Asset Comparison Strategy -33%, Wind All A -22%, Excess Return -11%[18] - 2012: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 0%[18] - 2013: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 36%[18] - 2014: Asset Comparison Strategy 48%, Wind All A 52%, Excess Return -4%[18] - 2015: Asset Comparison Strategy 55%, Wind All A 38%, Excess Return 16%[18] - 2016: Asset Comparison Strategy -14%, Wind All A -13%, Excess Return -1%[18] - 2017: Asset Comparison Strategy 32%, Wind All A 5%, Excess Return 27%[18] - 2018: Asset Comparison Strategy -21%, Wind All A -28%, Excess Return 7%[18] - 2019: Asset Comparison Strategy 41%, Wind All A 33%, Excess Return 8%[18] - 2020: Asset Comparison Strategy 69%, Wind All A 26%, Excess Return 44%[18] - 2021: Asset Comparison Strategy 47%, Wind All A 9%, Excess Return 38%[18] - 2022: Asset Comparison Strategy 44%, Wind All A -19%, Excess Return 62%[18] - 2023: Asset Comparison Strategy 5%, Wind All A -5%, Excess Return 10%[18] - 2024: Asset Comparison Strategy 62%, Wind All A 10%, Excess Return 52%[18] - 2025 (Aug): Asset Comparison Strategy 27%, Wind All A 23%, Excess Return 4%[18] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on the highest analyst forecasted growth rates, regardless of the cycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest expected growth rates as forecasted by analysts[6] - The spread of expected growth advantage differences (Δgf) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[20] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns since 2019, with notable performance in 2014-2015[34] Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest actual growth rates, particularly during transition and growth periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest actual growth rates (Δg)[6] - The spread of actual growth advantage differences (Δg) is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[24] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in growth-dominant environments[36] Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with high ROE and low valuation under the PB-ROE framework, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with high ROE and low PB-ROE residuals[6] - The spread of ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns from 2016 to 2020, with weaker performance since 2021[39] Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+ROE scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+ROE scores[6] - The spread of DP+ROE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[42] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the highest DP+BP scores, concentrated in mature periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the highest DP+BP scores[6] - The spread of DP+BP advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[45] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[46] Factor Name: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores, concentrated in stagnation and recession periods[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is constructed by selecting industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores[6] - The spread of PB+SIZE advantage differences is used to capture the trend changes in top assets[48] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[49] Factor Backtesting Results - **Expected Growth (gf)**: - Cable: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongtian Technology, average market cap 21.791 billion yuan, 3-month performance 49.62%[34] - Cement: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Conch Cement, average market cap 17.929 billion yuan, 3-month performance 12.71%[34] - Glass Fiber: 6 stocks, largest weight stock China Jushi, average market cap 26.657 billion yuan, 3-month performance 63.67%[34] - Rare Earth and Magnetic Materials: 17 stocks, largest weight stock Northern Rare Earth, average market cap 31.018 billion yuan, 3-month performance 98.77%[34] - White Goods III: 10 stocks, largest weight stock Midea Group, average market cap 113.675 billion yuan, 3-month performance -1.21%[34] - **Actual Growth (g)**: - Integrated Circuits: 104 stocks, largest weight stock Cambricon-U, average market cap 45.058 billion yuan, 3-month performance 42.93%[37] - PCB: 38 stocks, largest weight stock Shenghong Technology, average market cap 27.163 billion yuan, 3-month performance 112.10%[37] - Tungsten: 4 stocks, largest weight stock Xiamen Tungsten, average market cap 30.523 billion yuan, 3-month performance 69.26%[37] - Lithium Battery Equipment: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Lead Intelligent, average market cap 11.731 billion yuan, 3-month performance 60.15%[37] - Weapons and Equipment III: 12 stocks, largest weight stock Great Wall Military Industry, average market cap 21.307 billion yuan, 3-month performance 80.22%[37] - **Profitability (ROE)**: - Beer: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Tsingtao Brewery, average market cap 26.758 billion yuan, 3-month performance -3.94%[39] - Liquor: 20 stocks, largest weight stock Kweichow Moutai, average market cap 162.722 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.12%[39] - Non-dairy Beverages: 7 stocks, largest weight stock Eastroc Beverage, average market cap 32.754 billion yuan, 3-month performance -4.45%[39] - Network Connection and Tower Setup: 19 stocks, largest weight stock Zhongji Xuchuang, average market cap 64.299 billion yuan, 3-month performance 202.29%[39] - Building Decoration III: 28 stocks, largest weight stock Gold Mantis, average market cap 3.436 billion yuan, 3-month performance 4.42%[39] - **Quality Dividend (DP+ROE)**: - Automotive Motor Control: 15

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in vaccine approvals for circular, pseudorabies, and diarrhea vaccines, with notable year-on-year increases [7][8]. - The animal drug raw material market shows a continued strong performance in macrolide products, with price indices reflecting a structural differentiation among various products [52][53]. - The overall demand for animal health products is expected to recover, driven by improved profitability in the breeding sector and the introduction of new products [68][69]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Approvals - In April, major vaccine varieties for pigs showed substantial year-on-year growth, with circular vaccine up by 71.2%, pseudorabies vaccine by 73.3%, and diarrhea vaccine by 220% [7][8]. - Cumulative data from January to April indicates most vaccine types experienced significant growth, particularly in pig vaccines, with circular vaccine up by 52.3% and pseudorabies vaccine by 48.2% [8][9]. Raw Material Prices - As of the end of April, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) was 69.2, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous month and a 13.4% increase year-on-year [52][53]. - Prices for macrolide products such as Tylosin, Tylvalosin, and Tilmicosin have shown strong performance, with increases of 10.1%, 17.6%, and 15.4% respectively compared to the end of March [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in the demand for animal health products, supported by a robust breeding sector and ongoing product innovation [68][69]. - The competitive landscape is expected to lead to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the sector, with a focus on larger companies that can leverage their financial strength and product diversity [69][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [68][70].

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Recommended" with a target price of 7.8 CNY [2][8] Core Views - The company is facing operational pressure with a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but there are signs of improvement in Q1 2025 [2][8] - The company has been focusing on R&D and innovation to diversify its product offerings, which is expected to enhance its resilience and future growth potential [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.255 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 21.45%, and a net profit of 109 million CNY, down 61.58% [2][4] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 352 million CNY, a slight increase of 1.06% year-on-year, while net profit was 76.48 million CNY, down 27.57% [2][4] - The gross margin for 2024 was 53.86%, a decline of 5.33 percentage points, marking the lowest level since 2011 [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.514 billion CNY, 1.750 billion CNY, and 2.018 billion CNY, respectively, with expected growth rates of 20.6%, 15.6%, and 15.3% [4][8] - Forecasted net profits for the same years are 197 million CNY, 250 million CNY, and 316 million CNY, with growth rates of 80.7%, 27.2%, and 26.2% [4][8] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively investing in R&D to develop new products across various categories, including non-oral vaccines and pet vaccines, which is expected to diversify its product matrix and improve its market position [8] - The company aims to reduce reliance on a single product line, particularly the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, which has seen significant sales declines [8]

Investment Rating - The report adjusts the investment rating to "Recommendation" for the company, with a target price of 15.3 CNY, reflecting a 30 times PE for 2025 [1][7]. Core Views - The company's main business is gradually recovering, with significant performance in the pet business. The report predicts a net profit of 177 million CNY for 2025 and 211 million CNY for 2026, with an EPS of 0.51 CNY and 0.61 CNY respectively [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1,043 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 16.77%, and a net profit of 93 million CNY, down 46.82%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 279 million CNY, up 18.32%, with a net profit of 53 million CNY, up 93.75% [1][3]. - The company’s revenue breakdown for 2024 shows a decline in pig vaccines by 22.58% to 336 million CNY, while poultry vaccines increased by 3.31% to 429 million CNY. The pet business saw a remarkable growth of 125.16%, totaling 46.21 million CNY [1][7]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 61.09%, with a slight increase in poultry vaccines' margin, while the net profit margin in Q1 2025 improved to 18.99%, up 7.39 percentage points year-on-year [1][7]. Business Segment Analysis - The report highlights that the pig vaccine segment is under pressure, but the poultry vaccine segment is accelerating. The pet business is performing exceptionally well, with significant contributions from new products like the cat trivalent vaccine [1][7]. - The company has maintained effective cost control, with a reduction in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [1][7]. Research and Development - The company continues to invest in R&D, enhancing its product matrix with new vaccines and medications, which are expected to help combat industry competition and drive growth [1][7].