1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The report points out that since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of credit bonds has been outstanding, and investors are generally bullish on credit bonds. It also analyzes potential investment opportunities and risks, suggesting continuing short - term coupon strategies, leveraging to increase returns, and being cautious about chasing long - term Tier 2 capital bonds. It maintains the view that interest - rate bonds will experience short - term fluctuations [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event Review - Since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of credit bonds has been excellent, with high trading sentiment. The credit spreads of various grades and maturities within 5 years are mostly at relatively low levels in the past year. For example, the spreads of 3 - year AAA and AA+ medium - and short - term notes over China Development Bank bonds are 14.5bp and 22.5bp respectively, at the 4% and 6% quantiles in the past year, and the 5 - year quantiles are as low as 2% and 1% [4]. Investment Highlights - **Increased demand for long - term general credit bonds due to the opening of amortized bond funds**: Starting this year, amortized bond funds with a closed - end period of more than 3 years will gradually open. The cumulative opening scale of those with a maturity of over 5 years this year is about 212.5 billion yuan, with 183.1 billion yuan in the first half of the year, mainly concentrated in the first quarter. From January 17th, for three consecutive weeks, the weekly opening scale has been over 20 billion yuan, which is expected to boost the allocation demand for general credit bonds with a maturity of around 5 years. The opening windows of products with a 3 - to 5 - year closed - end period (mainly 3 years) are mainly concentrated in the second and third quarters, with an expected 216.9 billion yuan of amortized bond funds opening, 111.7 billion yuan in the second quarter and 105.2 billion yuan in the third quarter, peaking in May and July with monthly opening scales of 59.6 billion yuan and 49.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - **Valuation repair opportunities for the constituent bonds of oversold science and technology innovation bond ETFs**: As of January 23rd, the total scale of credit bond ETFs is 52.928 billion yuan, a 13.9% decrease from the end of last month. The science and technology innovation bond ETFs and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs have decreased by 6.003 billion yuan and 1.786 billion yuan respectively. The year - end impulse funds are still withdrawing, causing selling pressure on science and technology innovation bonds. After the new year, the valuation has generally increased, and some science and technology innovation bonds have been oversold. As of January 23rd, the premium of the constituent bonds of science and technology innovation bond ETFs over ordinary bonds is as low as 3.3bp, breaking the low level in mid - and early December last year (5.0bp) and reaching the lowest level since July 2025 [4]. - **Sustainability of the mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bond market**: Since the beginning of the year, mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bonds have had a strong market due to the implementation of the new redemption rules and increased allocation by insurance institutions. As of January 23rd, the yield to maturity of 5 - year AAA - Tier 2 capital bonds has decreased by about 7.4bp this year, and the credit spread over China Development Bank bonds has narrowed to 35.1bp. However, the sustainability of the mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bond market remains to be observed for three reasons: the current valuation is at a phased high, reducing the odds of going long; after the implementation of IFRS9 for insurance institutions and the end of the second - generation solvency transition period, the fair - value changes of Tier 2 capital bonds will be included in the current profit and loss, and the risk factors are not favorable, so their trading nature is greater than the allocation nature for insurance, and the volatility of Tier 2 capital bonds may increase; January is a big month for insurance institutions' premium income, but the sustainability of the market depends on the subsequent premium income. If it returns to normal, the sustainability of the mid - and long - term Tier 2 capital bond market may fall short of expectations [4][5]. Investment Suggestions - Maintain the view that interest - rate bonds will experience short - term fluctuations. In the coupon strategy, continue to match short - term coupons with leverage to increase returns, and explore opportunities in mid - and long - term general credit bonds and oversold science and technology innovation bond constituents under the opening of amortized bond funds. Be vigilant about the risk of chasing high for long - term Tier 2 capital bonds. In terms of duration, it is recommended to use medium - and short - term products within 5 years as the foundation, and operate mid - and long - term products mainly through band trading. Do not lengthen the portfolio duration in advance before the bond market is in a favorable period [5].