再次，2026 年摊余债基集中开放，预计规模超 6000 亿元，如果部 分产品转为信用风格，或提振对应期限信用债需求，更利好中高评 级 5 年、3 年左右品种。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 产业债，低利差下的结构博弈 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之七 [Table_Summary] ►2026 年，信用债需求或放缓 需求端，增量资金或放缓。首先，存款利率下降或继续推动居民资 产向理财产品迁移，2026 年理财规模有望延续稳步增长。但平滑净 值手段整改完毕，叠加低利差环境，理财配置信用债的占比或难上 升 。2025Q2 理财配置信用债占比为 38.8%，较 2024Q4 下降 2.3pct。 其次，基金销售费用新规对信用债影响较大的是短债、中短债基金 的赎回压力。以 25Q3 纯债基金持仓债券规模为基础，假设短债、 中短债基金赎回比例在 20%-40%，中长债基金、指数型基金赎回比 例在 10%-20%，涉及债券规模约 1.04-2.07 万亿元，其中信用债规 模约 3309-6618 亿元。 证券研究报告|固收研究 ...

新华财经上海12月4日电（记者杨溢仁）2025年7月中旬以来，信用债市场收益率呈现低位震荡态势。然 而临近年末，信用债市场既面临资金面季节性波动、机构配置力量减弱等挑战，也蕴含着摊余债基规模 释放带来的结构性机会。业内人士认为，12月的信用债投资应坚持"防守为基、进攻有度"的原则，在控 制整体风险的前提下，聚焦摊余债基需求覆盖的品种及高性价比标的，构建稳健型配置组合。 就收益率表现来看，对比上周五（11月28日）和10月31日的数据，城投债AAA级3年至10年期收益率上 行了6BP，AA+级3年和10年期收益率上行了5BP至6BP，而AA及以下等级的5年期收益率反而回落了 1BP至2BP，这种高评级弱、低评级长端强的分化格局，或在12月得以延续。 "其背后的核心原因，在于机构风险偏好的分层——以基金为代表的主动管理型资金仍在挖掘票息价 值，而理财、货基等负债端敏感型资金则持续向短久期品种收缩。"一位机构交易员告诉记者，"利差层 面的分化更为清晰，11月以来，1年期信用利差基本持平，3年期利差走扩了3BP至6BP，AA+及以下等 级的5年期利差却收窄了5BP至8BP，形成了'短平、中扩、长收'的阶梯式分布。回溯 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a shift in the main holders of amortized cost bond funds from banks to wealth management companies, which are increasingly viewing these funds as tools for reducing volatility in a low-interest and high-volatility environment [3][11][12] - The application of AI in the industry has progressed from initial human-machine interaction to a collaborative phase, with AI becoming a core component of business operations [3][17] - The report highlights the launch of a global commodity integration strategy index by a wealth management company, aiming to capture diverse returns through systematic allocation across various commodity strategies [4][18][19] Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The concentrated opening period for amortized cost bond funds is expected in Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 480 billion [11][10] - The transition of holders from banks to wealth management companies is driven by market changes and regulatory policies, leading to a shift in the underlying assets of these funds from government bonds to credit bonds [12][13] Peer Innovation Dynamics - A wealth management company has introduced a global commodity integration strategy index, which utilizes quantitative models for dynamic rebalancing to capture diverse risk factors in different market environments [18][19] - A partnership between a regional equity trading center and a wealth management company has successfully completed the first fund share transfer, marking a significant step for wealth management funds to enter the private equity investment field [20] Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 2 basis points, while money market funds remained stable at 1.17% [21][23] - The bond market is currently experiencing a narrow fluctuation pattern, influenced by various factors including Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and market concerns regarding AI [24][25] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products increased to 1.16%, up 0.43 percentage points, indicating a potential upward pressure on the net value ratio if credit spreads continue to widen [28][30]

Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The amortized cost bond funds are entering a concentrated opening period from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 480 billion yuan, marking a significant maturity peak [6][7] - The shift in the main allocation body of amortized cost bond funds from bank proprietary funds to wealth management companies is driven by market changes, with the latter viewing these funds as "volatility reduction tools" in a low-interest and high-volatility environment [6][7] - The application of AI in the industry has evolved from initial "human-machine interaction" trials to an "human-machine collaboration" exploration phase, with various wealth management companies implementing AI in trading, research, and customer engagement [9][11] Peer Innovation Dynamics - China Merchants Bank Wealth Management launched a global commodity integration strategy index on November 19, aiming to systematically allocate three mainstream strategies in the commodity CTA field, enhancing the ability to capture diverse returns in different market environments [12] - On November 25, Hangzhou Bank Wealth Management successfully completed its first fund share transfer through the Zhejiang Equity Exchange, marking a significant step for wealth management funds to enter the private equity investment field through a compliant secondary market [13][15] Yield Performance - During the week of November 17-23, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 2 basis points, while money market funds remained stable at 1.17% [16][17] - The bond market experienced a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining stable at 1.81%, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and concerns over AI market bubbles [17][19] Net Asset Value Tracking - The net asset value (NAV) of bank wealth management products rose to 1.16%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points, while credit spreads widened by 0.16 basis points, indicating limited cost-effectiveness [22][24]

Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The re - allocation strategy of amortized bond funds has shifted towards credit bonds, which may be the result of a two - way choice between funds and institutional investors in a low - interest - rate environment. The opening rhythm of amortized bond funds and their impact on the credit bond market are the focuses of this report. The shift in the investment strategy of amortized bond funds to credit bonds helps boost the allocation demand for credit bonds with a remaining term similar to the closed - end period of the funds, driving an excess return market for corresponding - term varieties [2][8][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Amortized Bond Funds Enter a Concentrated Opening Period - Amortized bond funds were mainly issued intensively from 2019 - 2020, with a relatively high proportion of products with a closed - end period of 3 - 5 years and over 5 years. From September 2025 to September 2026, the monthly opening scale of amortized bond funds generally exceeded 40 billion yuan. Specifically, from November 2025 to March 2026, the expected opening scales are 72.7 billion yuan, 107.7 billion yuan, 89.2 billion yuan, 51 billion yuan, and 116.2 billion yuan respectively [3][15][19]. - The opening of amortized bond funds is related to their issuance time. For example, products with a 24 - month, 36 - month, 39 - month closed - end period issued in 2019 and a 63 - month, 66 - month closed - end period issued in 2020 are entering a concentrated opening period [3][19]. 3.2 The Allocation Strategy of Amortized Bond Funds Shifts to Credit Bonds - Amortized bond funds are products that benefited from the transition period of the asset management regulations. New issuance has been strictly restricted, and they are currently in a state of stock operation with a small overall scale increase. The increase in credit bond allocation mainly comes from the style shift [21][26]. - At the beginning of their establishment, amortized bond funds preferred to allocate interest - rate bonds (mainly policy - financial bonds). Since 2025, their asset allocation has tilted towards credit bonds, with the credit bond holding scale and proportion continuously rising. By the end of 2024, the market value of credit bonds held by amortized bond funds was only 3.55 billion yuan, accounting for only 1.8%. As of the third quarter of 2025, the market value climbed to 29.28 billion yuan, accounting for 15.4% [4][26]. - Among the amortized bond funds that opened in the first three quarters of 2025, the credit style has become the mainstream strategy. Among 40 amortized bond funds with available data, 19 funds (63%) have a credit bond holding proportion of over 70%. Among 10 amortized bond funds that restarted operations in 2025, 8 funds (80%) have a credit bond holding proportion of over 80% [31]. 3.3 The Concentrated Opening of Amortized Bond Funds Drives the Demand for Medium - and Long - Term Credit Bonds - Amortized bond funds mainly prefer medium - and high - grade credit bonds, with moderate downward adjustment in medium - and short - term durations. In the top five credit bond holdings, the proportion of bonds with an implied rating of AA + and above is relatively high. For example, in the 3 - 5 - year period, all are AA + and above, with AA A - and above accounting for 86% [6][36]. - Amortized bond funds usually choose bonds with a remaining term close to their closed - end period for investment. The weighted average remaining term of the top five credit bond holdings of most amortized bond funds is very close to the remaining term of the fund until the next opening day [37][39]. - In October 2025, the opening scale of amortized bond funds was about 53.4 billion yuan, and the opening scale of 63 - month closed - end products was 32.4 billion yuan, accounting for 61%. Since late October, the net purchase of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds by funds has significantly increased, pushing down yields and narrowing spreads. On November 5th compared to October 21st, the yield of the 5 - year medium - and short - term note AAA dropped by 19bp, the credit spread narrowed by 18bp, and the 5Y - 1Y term spread also significantly narrowed by 17bp [8][40]. - In the future, the opening rhythm of amortized bond funds will affect the demand for credit bonds of corresponding terms. For example, in November 2025, the opening scale of 63 - month amortized bond funds is relatively large, which may still have a demand for medium - and high - grade 5 - year - old credit bonds; in December, the opening scale of 36 - month and 24 - month amortized bond funds is relatively large, which may boost the demand for 2 - 3 - year credit bonds [9][44].