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【公募基金】情绪被动降温,市场回归健康——公募基金指数跟踪周报(2026.01.12-2026.01.16)
华宝财富魔方· 2026-01-19 09:44
Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market has significantly cooled down since January 14, 2026, due to intensive regulatory policies, including raising margin requirements for margin trading and stabilizing large ETF holdings, leading to a decrease in total market turnover from around 4 trillion to approximately 3 trillion [1][7]. - The adjustment of margin requirements and the increase in broad-based ETF volumes are seen as precise expectation management by regulators to control leverage risks and guide market rhythm, which may cause short-term volatility but is beneficial for the long-term healthy operation of the market [1][7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a need for adjustment after consecutive gains, and the "cooling" policy signals suggest a high probability of the market entering a consolidation phase, with high-flying thematic stocks facing adjustment pressure [1][7]. - Upcoming economic data will further confirm whether fiscal measures are being fully implemented, with funds expected to shift from pure thematic speculation to areas supported by performance and clearer logic [1][8]. Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - During the week of January 12-16, 2026, bond yields generally declined, with the 1-year government bond yield down by 4.63 basis points to 1.24%, and the 10-year yield down by 3.58 basis points to 1.84%, while the 30-year yield slightly increased by 0.12 basis points to 2.30% [2][9]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market has improved, but further downward space for yields remains limited. The central bank announced its first structural "rate cut" of the year, lowering the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25%, exceeding market expectations [2][9]. - Despite the positive sentiment, it is important to note that this is not a comprehensive rate cut, and supply pressures in the bond market during the first quarter may still pose challenges [2][9]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On January 15, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a system work meeting to summarize 2025's work and plan for 2026, emphasizing the need to deepen public fund reforms and broaden long-term funding sources [2][11]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of promoting long-term, rational, and value investments to create a market ecosystem conducive to "long money and long investment" [2][11]. - Regulatory enforcement will focus on enhancing effectiveness and deterrence, with a commitment to cracking down on financial fraud, price manipulation, and insider trading [2][11].