截至2026年1月7日收盘，证券ETF(159841)换手4.51%，成交4.54亿元。跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数(399975)下跌1.48%。成分 股方面，广发证券(000776)领跌2.61%，东北证券(000686)下跌2.50%，中银证券(601696)下跌2.49%，湘财股份(600095)下跌 2.43%，东方财富(300059)下跌2.31%。 【产品亮点】 预计后续资本市场活跃度维持高位，证券行业景气度更上一层楼，深市规模最大、流动性最好的证券ETF(159841)助力把握证券 板块投资机遇。 【相关产品】 证券ETF(159841)，对应场外联接基金（A：008590，C：008591）。 【热点事件】 两市成交额继续温和放量，连续两日破2.8万亿 市场交投同步升温，成交额持续放量。2026年1月7日，沪深两市全天成交额达2.85万亿元，较上一交易日放量476亿元，成交额 已连续两个交易日突破2.8万亿元大关。 1月6日，上交所最新披露，2025年12月A股新开户达260万户，较11月环比增长9%，比2024年同期的199万户大幅增长30.54%。 至此，2025年全年A股新开户总数为27 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 华西证券指出，2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已提前演绎：一是 宏观政策周期来看，2026年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投资规划，同时财 政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是资金层面，12月以股票型ETF为代表的 机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱动下外资回流，增量资金入市有望强化春季 行情趋势；三是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅收窄，预计2026年企业盈利进入温和复苏通 道，对盈利拐点的博弈将成为行情的重要支撑。 ...

华西证券指出，2026年是多个正面因素叠加的"大年"，牛市基础仍扎实，且春季躁动已提前演绎：一是 宏观政策周期来看，2026年作为十五五开局之年，多部门正密集出台配套产业政策和投资规划，同时财 政货币政策的协同发力，为市场营造了友好的流动性环境；二是资金层面，12月以股票型ETF为代表的 机构资金出现抢跑，后续保险资金"开门红"叠加汇率升值驱动下外资回流，增量资金入市有望强化春季 行情趋势；三是基本面预期与产业周期来看，随着PPI降幅收窄，预计2026年企业盈利进入温和复苏通 道，对盈利拐点的博弈将成为行情的重要支撑。 ...

东莞证券认为，上周三，A股市场三大指数涨跌不一，从资金面来看，沪深两市全天成交额超过2万亿 元，较上一个交易日缩量逾千亿元。从技术分析角度看，上证指数技术面呈现多空胶着状态，但技术形 态上仍处于多头区间，支撑位点位暂未跌破，短期需关注压力位突破情况及量能变化。近期A股市场连 续上涨，行情明显呈现出流动性驱动的特征。随着年底集中冲量阶段过去，后续资金流入节奏已有放缓 迹象，预计年初市场可能仍会出现一定波动。展望后市，春节前市场整体仍具备一定的上行空间，短期 若有调整可视为逢低布局的机会。当前阶段，此前制约市场的主要风险因素已较前期明显缓和，市场情 绪有望保持积极，风险偏好或将继续维持在较高水平。 中原证券认为，上周三，上证指数全天窄幅震荡；深证成指、创业板指早盘高开低走，随后震荡回升， 之后回落下探，午后一度回升，随后再度回落。盘中航天航空、软件开发、有色金属以及互联网服务等 行业表现较好；医药商业、贵金属、船舶制造以及电池等行业表现较弱。市场普遍预期美联储2026年将 延续降息周期，全球流动性环境趋于宽松。近期人民币汇率走强，进一步提升了人民币资产的吸引力， 有利于吸引资金回流。预计上证指数围绕4000点附近 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant downward trend in November, contrasting sharply with the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.23% [1][2] - Defensive sectors such as banking and textiles performed relatively well, while growth sectors like technology and automotive faced substantial declines, with the computer industry down by 5.26% [1][2] Key Factors Influencing Market Performance - A notable cooling in global artificial intelligence investment themes has directly impacted the performance of growth sectors, initiated by a significant pullback in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a maximum drop of 7.37% in November [2][3] - Domestic economic recovery momentum remains insufficient, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.0, and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises [3][4] - The tightening of global liquidity conditions has also exerted pressure on risk assets, with U.S. non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, leading to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3][4] Market Behavior and Trends - As the year-end approaches, institutional investors are adopting strategies to lock in profits and preserve performance, leading to a shift from high-valuation sectors to low-valuation defensive stocks, resulting in significant market structure differentiation [4][5] - The overall market turnover has decreased from around 2 trillion to approximately 1.7 trillion, indicating reduced liquidity and increased volatility in individual stocks [4][5] Investment Strategy and Outlook - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, balancing stable cash flow from defensive sectors like banking and utilities with increased exposure to high-growth areas such as energy storage and military industries [6][7] - The energy storage sector is expected to grow over 40% due to rising demand and policy support, while the military sector benefits from ongoing national defense modernization efforts [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian stock market is experiencing a resurgence, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex indices reaching historical highs due to factors such as corporate earnings recovery, favorable fiscal and monetary policies, and positive economic outlooks [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.4% to 26,310.45 points, while the Sensex index increased by 0.5% to 86,055.86 points, marking a significant rebound [5]. - The market is expected to see nearly 7% economic growth in Q3 of this year, with an overall growth forecast of 6.8% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Key drivers for the stock market rebound include early signs of corporate earnings recovery, valuation corrections, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5][6]. - The Nifty index's 12-month forward P/E ratio is currently at 22.7, down from 23-25 a year ago, indicating a narrowing gap between corporate earnings and stock valuations [6]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on the Indian stock market to "overweight," citing four main reasons: policy support, earnings recovery, low foreign investment positions, and defensive valuations [7][9]. - The report highlights that the Indian central bank has implemented several easing measures, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are expected to stimulate economic growth and consumer spending [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Nifty 50 index will rise by 14% to 29,000 points by the end of 2026, with a focus on sectors related to domestic themes such as finance, consumer goods, and defense [9]. - JPMorgan also forecasts the Nifty 50 index could reach 30,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and improved domestic demand [10][11].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Indian stock market indices Nifty 50 and Sensex reached historical highs on November 27, marking the first time in 14 months that both indices surpassed previous records set in September 2024 [3][4] - Nifty 50 index rose by 0.4% to 26,310.45 points, while Sensex increased by 0.5% to 86,055.86 points [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Key factors driving the rebound include expectations of corporate earnings recovery, valuation corrections, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and positive economic outlook for India [3][4] - The Indian economy is projected to grow nearly 7% in Q3 of this year and is expected to achieve an overall growth of 6.8% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3] - Optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of India has contributed to the market's upward momentum [3][4] Group 3: Earnings and Valuation - Recent corporate earnings reports indicate the strongest recovery in over a year, driven by benign inflation, tax cuts, and reduced borrowing costs, leading to a rebound in consumption [4][5] - The forward P/E ratio for the Nifty index is currently at 22.7, down from 23-25 range about 14 months ago, suggesting further upside potential for the Indian stock market [4][5] Group 4: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on the Indian stock market to "overweight," citing four main reasons: policy support, earnings recovery, low foreign ownership, and defensive valuations [5][6] - The report indicates that foreign institutional investors have significantly reduced their holdings in Indian stocks, with net sales reaching a historical second-high [5][6] Group 5: Sector Outlook - Goldman Sachs favors sectors related to domestic themes, including financials, consumer goods, and defense, anticipating benefits from credit growth and consumption recovery [6][7] - JPMorgan also predicts a rise in the Nifty 50 index to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by domestic demand growth and potential trade agreements with the U.S. [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists remain bullish on the S&P 500 index, projecting it could rise to 7,200 points by mid-next year, supported by corporate earnings recovery and easing policy uncertainty [1] Earnings Outlook - The range of earnings revisions has expanded to an unprecedented level, with positive operating leverage significantly boosting their non-PMI earnings model [1] - After a prolonged period of negative or stagnant growth, the median growth rate of stock EPS has turned positive [1] Market Risks - There is a contradiction between the lagging weak labor market data and the Federal Reserve's policy response, which may not meet market expectations for speed, posing short-term risks [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise on August 25, with trading volume reaching 3.18 trillion yuan, marking the second-highest in history and exceeding 2 trillion yuan for nine consecutive trading days [1] - On August 26, the A-share market opened lower but showed mixed performance, with the MSCI China A50 Connect Index experiencing a slight decline of approximately 0.5%, while leading stocks like Muyuan Foods and Wanhua Chemical led the gains [1] - Dongwu Securities believes that the recovery of corporate earnings and the narrative of a weak dollar will enter a critical verification window in September, maintaining an optimistic outlook for the market and a slow bull trend for A-shares [1] Group 2 - The A50 ETF (159601) closely tracks the MSCI China A50 Connect Index, providing a packaged investment in 50 leading interconnected stocks, making it a preferred choice for domestic and foreign funds [2] - The MSCI China A50 Connect Index emphasizes liquidity and industry balance during its compilation, showcasing significant large-cap characteristics compared to other "beautiful 50" indices [2]

Group 1 - The extension of the US-China tariff truce by 90 days has led to a bullish trend in Asian stock markets, including India, where corporate earnings are showing signs of recovery and retail investors are continuously injecting funds through mutual funds [1] - The domestic consumption market in India is showing optimistic performance, supported by low inflation, abundant monsoon rainfall, and a personal tax relief policy worth 1 trillion rupees, which collectively boost the consumer goods sector [1] - Motilal Oswal Financial Services predicts a 10% increase in earnings per share for Nifty 50 index constituents this fiscal year, significantly higher than the previous fiscal year's growth of only 1% [1] Group 2 - The domestic market has become a stabilizing factor for Indian pharmaceutical companies, with local sales showing resilience amid uncertainties in the US market due to tariffs [1] - In July, the sales of domestic pharmaceuticals in India grew by 7.9% year-on-year, marking the second-highest growth rate in six months [1] - Companies like Glenmark, Sun Pharma, Alkem, Torrent Pharma, and Dr. Reddy's have outperformed the market average, while Cipla and Lupin lag behind [2] Group 3 - The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) has received preliminary approval from market regulators to conduct stock derivatives trading, positioning itself as a competitor to major players like NSE and BSE [3] - Despite a market decline in July due to tariff concerns and weak corporate earnings, Indian retail investors injected a record 427 billion rupees (approximately 4.9 billion USD) into equity funds [3] - The contrasting trend of domestic investors becoming market stabilizers while foreign funds experienced a net outflow of about 3 billion USD highlights the growing importance of local investors in providing support during market downturns [3]