[Table_Title] 政策保驾护航，中长线资金入市仍是大趋势 证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ·行业配置上，建议关注：1）高景气科技主线：如 AI 算力链、机器人、存储、储能等；2）逢低布局涨价相关周 期品种，如化工、有色等；3）受益于 AI 应用产业趋势方向，如港股互联网。 风险提示：全球经济超预期波动、政策效果不及预期、海外流动性风险，地缘政治风险等。 | 分析师：李立峰 | 分析师：张海燕 | | --- | --- | | 邮箱：lilf@hx168.com.cn | 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn | | SAC NO：S1120520090003 | SAC NO：S1120521040002 | 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title2] 投资策略周报 [Table_Summary] ·市场回顾：本周 A 股主要指数分化，红利指数和上证 50 涨幅居前，北证 50、中证 2000 和科创 50 指领跌。资金 面上，市场日均成交额维持在 3 万亿元附近，显示投资者风险偏好高位运行。一级行业中，石 ...

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market has significantly cooled down since January 14, 2026, due to intensive regulatory policies, including raising margin requirements for margin trading and stabilizing large ETF holdings, leading to a decrease in total market turnover from around 4 trillion to approximately 3 trillion [1][7]. - The adjustment of margin requirements and the increase in broad-based ETF volumes are seen as precise expectation management by regulators to control leverage risks and guide market rhythm, which may cause short-term volatility but is beneficial for the long-term healthy operation of the market [1][7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a need for adjustment after consecutive gains, and the "cooling" policy signals suggest a high probability of the market entering a consolidation phase, with high-flying thematic stocks facing adjustment pressure [1][7]. - Upcoming economic data will further confirm whether fiscal measures are being fully implemented, with funds expected to shift from pure thematic speculation to areas supported by performance and clearer logic [1][8]. Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - During the week of January 12-16, 2026, bond yields generally declined, with the 1-year government bond yield down by 4.63 basis points to 1.24%, and the 10-year yield down by 3.58 basis points to 1.84%, while the 30-year yield slightly increased by 0.12 basis points to 2.30% [2][9]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market has improved, but further downward space for yields remains limited. The central bank announced its first structural "rate cut" of the year, lowering the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25%, exceeding market expectations [2][9]. - Despite the positive sentiment, it is important to note that this is not a comprehensive rate cut, and supply pressures in the bond market during the first quarter may still pose challenges [2][9]. Public Fund Market Dynamics - On January 15, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission held a system work meeting to summarize 2025's work and plan for 2026, emphasizing the need to deepen public fund reforms and broaden long-term funding sources [2][11]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of promoting long-term, rational, and value investments to create a market ecosystem conducive to "long money and long investment" [2][11]. - Regulatory enforcement will focus on enhancing effectiveness and deterrence, with a commitment to cracking down on financial fraud, price manipulation, and insider trading [2][11].

Core Insights - The securities ETF (159841) turnover reached 4.51% with a transaction volume of 4.54 billion yuan, while the tracked CSI All Share Securities Index (399975) fell by 1.48% [1] - The A-share market saw a significant increase in new accounts, with 2.6 million new accounts opened in December 2025, marking a 30.54% year-on-year increase [2] - A-share companies distributed over 2.6 trillion yuan in dividends in 2025, setting a new historical record for annual dividends [2] Market Activity - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.85 trillion yuan on January 7, 2026, an increase of 476 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the second consecutive day of surpassing 2.8 trillion yuan [1] - The securities industry is expected to maintain high activity levels, with the securities ETF (159841) positioned to capitalize on investment opportunities in the sector [1] Institutional Perspectives - Huaxi Securities anticipates that 2026 will be a "big year" due to multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity [2] - The macroeconomic policy environment is favorable, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies expected to enhance market liquidity [2] - Institutional funds, particularly from stock ETFs, are expected to drive market trends, supported by foreign capital inflows and a narrowing decline in PPI, which may lead to a mild recovery in corporate profits [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the market due to multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity [1] Group 2 - From a macro policy perspective, 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with various departments intensively introducing supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [1] Group 3 - On the funding side, institutional funds represented by stock ETFs showed early signs of investment in December, and the influx of foreign capital driven by the "opening red" of insurance funds and currency appreciation is expected to strengthen the spring market trend [1] Group 4 - In terms of fundamental expectations and industrial cycles, with the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate profits are anticipated to enter a phase of moderate recovery in 2026, making the speculation on profit inflection points a crucial support for the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the market due to multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity [1] Group 2 - From a macro policy perspective, 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with multiple departments intensively introducing supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [1] Group 3 - On the funding side, institutional funds, represented by stock ETFs, have shown early signs of inflow in December, and the combination of insurance funds' "opening red" and foreign capital inflow driven by currency appreciation is expected to strengthen the spring market trend [1] Group 4 - In terms of fundamental expectations and industrial cycles, with the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate profits are anticipated to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026, making the speculation on profit inflection points a crucial support for the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bull market remains intact, with an early onset of spring rally driven by multiple positive factors leading into 2026, which is expected to be a significant year for the market [1] - Macro policy cycles indicate that 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with various departments actively rolling out supportive industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment [1] - Institutional funds, particularly represented by stock ETFs, have shown signs of early entry into the market, with foreign capital expected to return due to currency appreciation, enhancing the spring market trend [1] Group 2 - The A-share market showed mixed performance last Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing narrow fluctuations, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index initially opened high but later retreated [2] - Certain sectors such as aerospace, software development, non-ferrous metals, and internet services performed well, while industries like pharmaceutical commerce, precious metals, shipbuilding, and batteries lagged [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will continue its interest rate cut cycle in 2026, contributing to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [2] Group 3 - The A-share market's three major indices exhibited mixed results last Wednesday, with total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index is in a state of indecision, yet remains within a bullish range, with key support levels not breached [3] - The market has shown signs of liquidity-driven characteristics, and while there may be fluctuations at the beginning of the year, the overall market is expected to maintain upward potential before the Spring Festival [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant downward trend in November, contrasting sharply with the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.23% [1][2] - Defensive sectors such as banking and textiles performed relatively well, while growth sectors like technology and automotive faced substantial declines, with the computer industry down by 5.26% [1][2] Key Factors Influencing Market Performance - A notable cooling in global artificial intelligence investment themes has directly impacted the performance of growth sectors, initiated by a significant pullback in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a maximum drop of 7.37% in November [2][3] - Domestic economic recovery momentum remains insufficient, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.0, and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises [3][4] - The tightening of global liquidity conditions has also exerted pressure on risk assets, with U.S. non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, leading to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3][4] Market Behavior and Trends - As the year-end approaches, institutional investors are adopting strategies to lock in profits and preserve performance, leading to a shift from high-valuation sectors to low-valuation defensive stocks, resulting in significant market structure differentiation [4][5] - The overall market turnover has decreased from around 2 trillion to approximately 1.7 trillion, indicating reduced liquidity and increased volatility in individual stocks [4][5] Investment Strategy and Outlook - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, balancing stable cash flow from defensive sectors like banking and utilities with increased exposure to high-growth areas such as energy storage and military industries [6][7] - The energy storage sector is expected to grow over 40% due to rising demand and policy support, while the military sector benefits from ongoing national defense modernization efforts [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian stock market is experiencing a resurgence, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex indices reaching historical highs due to factors such as corporate earnings recovery, favorable fiscal and monetary policies, and positive economic outlooks [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 27, the Nifty 50 index rose by 0.4% to 26,310.45 points, while the Sensex index increased by 0.5% to 86,055.86 points, marking a significant rebound [5]. - The market is expected to see nearly 7% economic growth in Q3 of this year, with an overall growth forecast of 6.8% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - Key drivers for the stock market rebound include early signs of corporate earnings recovery, valuation corrections, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies [5][6]. - The Nifty index's 12-month forward P/E ratio is currently at 22.7, down from 23-25 a year ago, indicating a narrowing gap between corporate earnings and stock valuations [6]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on the Indian stock market to "overweight," citing four main reasons: policy support, earnings recovery, low foreign investment positions, and defensive valuations [7][9]. - The report highlights that the Indian central bank has implemented several easing measures, including interest rate cuts and tax reductions, which are expected to stimulate economic growth and consumer spending [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Nifty 50 index will rise by 14% to 29,000 points by the end of 2026, with a focus on sectors related to domestic themes such as finance, consumer goods, and defense [9]. - JPMorgan also forecasts the Nifty 50 index could reach 30,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and improved domestic demand [10][11].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Indian stock market indices Nifty 50 and Sensex reached historical highs on November 27, marking the first time in 14 months that both indices surpassed previous records set in September 2024 [3][4] - Nifty 50 index rose by 0.4% to 26,310.45 points, while Sensex increased by 0.5% to 86,055.86 points [3] Group 2: Driving Factors - Key factors driving the rebound include expectations of corporate earnings recovery, valuation corrections, supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and positive economic outlook for India [3][4] - The Indian economy is projected to grow nearly 7% in Q3 of this year and is expected to achieve an overall growth of 6.8% for the fiscal year ending March 2026 [3] - Optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of India has contributed to the market's upward momentum [3][4] Group 3: Earnings and Valuation - Recent corporate earnings reports indicate the strongest recovery in over a year, driven by benign inflation, tax cuts, and reduced borrowing costs, leading to a rebound in consumption [4][5] - The forward P/E ratio for the Nifty index is currently at 22.7, down from 23-25 range about 14 months ago, suggesting further upside potential for the Indian stock market [4][5] Group 4: Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs has upgraded its rating on the Indian stock market to "overweight," citing four main reasons: policy support, earnings recovery, low foreign ownership, and defensive valuations [5][6] - The report indicates that foreign institutional investors have significantly reduced their holdings in Indian stocks, with net sales reaching a historical second-high [5][6] Group 5: Sector Outlook - Goldman Sachs favors sectors related to domestic themes, including financials, consumer goods, and defense, anticipating benefits from credit growth and consumption recovery [6][7] - JPMorgan also predicts a rise in the Nifty 50 index to 30,000 points by the end of 2026, driven by domestic demand growth and potential trade agreements with the U.S. [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists remain bullish on the S&P 500 index, projecting it could rise to 7,200 points by mid-next year, supported by corporate earnings recovery and easing policy uncertainty [1] Earnings Outlook - The range of earnings revisions has expanded to an unprecedented level, with positive operating leverage significantly boosting their non-PMI earnings model [1] - After a prolonged period of negative or stagnant growth, the median growth rate of stock EPS has turned positive [1] Market Risks - There is a contradiction between the lagging weak labor market data and the Federal Reserve's policy response, which may not meet market expectations for speed, posing short-term risks [1]