Core Viewpoint - Atour, a chain hotel listed in the US, is considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong, potentially raising hundreds of millions of dollars [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Atour Group (ATAT) successfully listed on NASDAQ on November 11, 2022, becoming the "first stock of China's new accommodation economy" [3] - Founded in 2013, Atour has developed a unique business model that combines hotels with bookstores, coffee shops, and photography exhibitions [4] Group 2: Business Performance - According to Frost & Sullivan, Atour is the largest mid-to-high-end hotel chain in China by room count projected for the end of 2024 [5] - As of March 2025, Atour operates 1,727 hotels, with a net increase of 108 hotels compared to the end of 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 31.8% from 2022 to 2024 [5] - In Q1 2025, Atour reported revenue of 1.906 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 345 million RMB, up 32.3% [5] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 474 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 33.8% [5] - The average revenue per available room (RevPAR) was 304 RMB, 92.8% of the level in the same period of 2024, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 418 RMB, at 97.2% of the previous year's level [5] Group 3: Retail Business - In Q1, Atour's retail business achieved a GMV of 845 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, with over 90% of sales coming from online channels [7] - The retail business primarily sells hotel-related products, with the deep sleep pillow series being a top seller, contributing over 70% of total GMV [7] - As of March 31, the number of registered members exceeded 96 million, a growth of 35.4% year-on-year [7] - Based on strong retail performance, Atour raised its revenue guidance for 2025, expecting a year-on-year growth of 25%-30% [7] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - Atour announced a shareholder return plan, projecting a total dividend of approximately 58 million USD for 2025, along with a three-year buyback plan totaling up to 400 million USD [7]

Core Viewpoint - Atour Group's valuation is excessively overstretched relative to its performance, facing downward pressure from fundamentals and shareholder sell-offs, leading to significant downside potential amid declining performance indicators [1][9][11] Group 1: Financial Performance - Atour Group's revenue growth rates for 2023-2025 Q1 were 106.19%, 55.34%, and 29.8%, while shareholder net profit growth rates were 651.42%, 73.01%, and -5.6% respectively, indicating a sharp decline in performance [2] - The company's average daily room rate (ADR), revenue per available room (RevPAR), and occupancy rate (OCC) have all shown a downward trend, with Q1 2025 figures at 418 RMB, 304 RMB, and 70.2% respectively, reflecting significant declines from previous quarters [6][7] Group 2: Business Segments - Atour Group operates three main business segments: hotel operations, rental hotel operations, and retail, all of which have experienced declining revenue growth since 2023, particularly rental hotels which are projected to see double-digit declines in 2024 [2][5] - The retail business, which focuses on hotel-related products, has seen its revenue share increase from 11.22% in 2022 to 36.41% in Q1 2025, despite a slowdown in growth [2][8] Group 3: Management and Shareholder Actions - Significant shareholder sell-offs have occurred, with major shareholders reducing their stakes from 24.7% and 15.5% to 8% and 4.98% respectively, signaling a lack of confidence in the company's future [9][10] - The company's management has also engaged in share sell-offs, with a new CFO starting to liquidate shares shortly after joining, raising concerns about insider confidence [10][11] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Atour Group's price-to-book (PB) ratio exceeds 10, indicating a high valuation compared to peers like Huazhu and Hyatt, which raises concerns about potential valuation corrections [1][11] - The company's high sales expense ratio, which increased from 6.19% in 2022 to 14.85% in Q1 2025, has pressured profitability, with net profit margins declining to 12.75% [8][11]