亚洲本币政府债券

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富达国际:政策能见度相对较高 亚洲本币债市前景具吸引力
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 02:45
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the attractiveness of Asian local currency bond markets due to expected interest rate cuts by central banks and decreasing inflation, which provides a conducive environment for capital gains and diversification amidst global trade uncertainties [1][2] - The size of the emerging East Asia local currency bond market has significantly increased from $866 billion in 2000 to $23.2 trillion by the end of 2022, enhancing its appeal to investors [1] - The correlation between Asian local currency government bonds and major global government bonds is relatively low, with coefficients of 0.4% and 0.3% with U.S. and German government bonds respectively, making them an attractive diversification tool [1] Group 2 - Long-term investment in Asian investment-grade local currency government bonds has shown a risk-adjusted return of 28.2% over the past decade, outperforming the 14.5% return from U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The Sharpe Ratio for the Asian local currency sovereign bond portfolio is 0.6, indicating a higher return per unit of risk compared to the 0.4 ratio for U.S. Treasury bonds, suggesting better compensation for risk [2] - Despite potential pressures from global trade order changes, Asian economies are expected to remain resilient, supported by domestic fiscal and monetary policies [3] Group 3 - The need for Asian countries to rely on domestic demand as a new engine for economic growth is highlighted, with a large and young population supporting this structural shift [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the evolving trade situation and its impacts on Asia, while improvements in market infrastructure, liquidity, and transparency in the local currency government bond market are necessary [3] - Asian local currency government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive as a diversification option for investors concerned about rising U.S. debt and trade policy uncertainties [3]