上周六帮我妈整理抽屉，翻出一沓理财到期单，好家伙，去年她不听劝买的那只 "预期收益 8%" 的产 品，实际到手才 3 个多点！气得她直拍大腿，反观我随手给她选的两只不起眼的产品，收益居然一分没 差，还多赚了杯奶茶钱。说真的，2025 年这理财市场，别信那些 "躺着赚钱" 的鬼话，想保本还能捞点 好处，就得靠 "笨办法"—— 我踩过的坑，你们可别再跳了！ 先唠唠保本理财怎么挑。前阵子我熬夜查 8 月的兑付数据，眼睛都快看花了，发现现在靠谱的还得是固 收和固收 +。平安有只叫 "启元夏树" 的产品，收益居然飙到六个点以上，我当时还以为看错了，翻持 仓明细才发现，人家九成以上都是债券，股票就沾了点边，跟撒了把葱花似的。所以选这类产品，别光 盯着收益数字，得扒开表面看里面投了啥，要是债券占比能到七成以上，基本就能放心，不然很容易踩 雷！ 南银理财那几只两年期的也还行，收益四个多点，风险等级是中低。我同事小李去年买了，到期那天特 意发朋友圈晒截图，说比存银行定期划算多了，还不用天天打开 APP 盯盘，省了不少心。不过有个事 儿得提醒你们，这类封闭式产品中途取不出来，要是你手头上的钱可能随时要用，比如等着给孩子交学 费、 ...

所以，当别人追风口、忙投机时， 你只要稳稳地去积累、去布局， 在这个人人想暴富的年代，炒股的、买币的、抄底的、投风口的， 一个比一个心急。 但你有没有发现—— 那些真正赚到钱的人，从不喧哗。 他们不盯盘，不冲动，不追热度， 他们只做一件事： 让钱自己生钱，让时间替他们干活。 你每天刷短视频，看别人一夜暴富， 但你不知道，那些"赚快钱"的故事， 大多只有开头，没有结局。 股市的"神话"，币圈的"造富"， 风口过后，都是一地鸡毛。 他们悄悄地把钱放进稳健的资产里， 分散投资、长期持有、吃利息、拿分红。 看似慢，实则稳；看似小，实则厚。 因为他们懂一个道理—— 钱不是靠赌赢的，而是靠熬出来的。 当别人起起落落、焦虑不安， 他们只需要看着复利一点点生根发芽。 你知道复利的魔力吗？ 它不会一夜暴富，却能在十年后让你惊讶： 原来"安静的坚持"，也能改变命运。 而真正聪明的人在干嘛？ 别怕慢，怕的是浮躁； 别羡慕别人的暴富，学会守自己的节奏。 财富从来不是冲出来的， 而是"熬"出来的。 —— 未来你会发现： 他们赚的是"热闹"， 你赚的，才是"自由"。 ...

同时，基金业绩比较基准并非一成不变的标尺。当基金投资范围调整时，基金公司可能会公告调整基 准。这一调整反映了基金未来的投资方向将会更聚焦于港股，投资者需及时关注公告，评估基金的投资 方向是否仍符合自身需求。 晨星中国表示，第一步，通过基准判断基金是否匹配自身偏好。在选择基金前，先查看其基准构成：若 基准以宽基指数为主，如沪深300、中证500，基金适合追求分散投资的投资者；若基准包含细分赛道指 数，如半导体指数、新能源指数，需确认自己对该赛道的了解程度与风险承受能力；若基准为合成指 数，需关注股债比例、跨市场配置比例是否符合自身资产配置需求。 第二步，通过基准评价基金真实管理能力。观察现任基金经理管理期、近3年、5年这些期间的基金收益 率与业绩比较基准收益率，对比两者的差距：若基金长期跑赢基准，超额收益稳定，而且基金背后的投 研团队具备较强的能力、基金经理拥有成熟稳定的投资策略，基金费用也不高，则说明这只基金有比较 好的投资价值。此外，投资者需关注基金业绩基准的适配性。 随着《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》在行业内逐步落地，基金业绩比较基准的约束性与指导性被 提升至新高度。监管层明确要求，基金的业绩比较基准 ...

If you’re seeking advice about investing, one of the most common insights you’ll get from experts is to go with index funds instead of individual stocks. The logic makes sense, especially for newer or more risk-averse investors: By offering a wider assortment of securities that track a specific market index (such as the S&P 500), index funds inherently offer greater diversification while helping to mitigate risk. Explore More: Multi-Millionaire Says Timing the Market Is Impossible – Here’s What You Should ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 作者： 极简投资人 来源：雪球 一 、 我们都是投资中的傻瓜 投资是一个全世界的人都不得不参与的比赛 ， 但是这个比赛很残酷 ， 只有极少的人能够实实在在赚到钱 。 有一句话比较有意思 ， 如果你在牌桌上玩了一会 ， 没有看出来谁是傻瓜 ， 那么你就是那个傻瓜 。 对于大多数人而言 ， 我们都是傻瓜 。 如果你通过预测市场涨跌来进行投资 ， 那你就是在和世界范围内最聪明 、 最有耐心 、 资金最雄厚的人来对弈 ， 他们无论为在能力 ， 经验 ， 资源 ， 精力方面完全碾压你 ， 想从他们手中赚绝对收益或者超过收益是不可能的事情 。 想要投资赚钱 ， 必须要承认自己的弱小 ， 才能有所敬畏 ， 有所不为 。 二 、 能立于不败之地的资产配置方案 那么 ， 对于个人投资者 ， 想玩这个游戏还能立于不败之地吗 ， 达利欧给出的答案是可以 ， 就是全天候配置 。 每类资产长期看都是能挣到钱的 ， 但是中间的波动和回撤太大 ， 以至于让很多人拿不住 ， 赚不到钱 。 每种资产虽然波动大 ， 但是都会适应 某种市场环境 。 | | 增长 | 通胀 | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that real estate, once considered the most reliable investment in China, is now facing a divided market with varying performance across different cities and locations [1][3] - In major cities, property values remain strong, but in lower-tier cities, there is significant inventory and declining prices, leading to potential financial burdens for investors [1][3] - The traditional belief that owning property equates to financial security is challenged, as high mortgage payments can lead to cash flow issues, preventing investment in other opportunities [3][4] Group 2 - The article suggests that real estate should not be viewed as the sole investment avenue; diversification into stocks, funds, and other assets is recommended for wealth growth [3][4] - For personal use, purchasing a home is justified as a necessity, but for investment purposes, careful consideration of city, location, and policies is crucial [4] - The conclusion emphasizes that real estate is just one option among many for asset allocation, and blind faith in property as a wealth generator can lead to missed opportunities [4]

Core Viewpoint - Global investors are significantly increasing their holdings in gold ETFs, driven by rising international gold prices and favorable market conditions despite recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that tempered expectations for rapid monetary easing [1][3]. Group 1: Gold ETF Demand - Last Friday, global gold ETF holdings saw the fastest increase in three years, with a single-day surge of nearly 27 tons, providing new momentum for gold prices [1]. - According to the World Gold Council (WGC), gold ETF demand from January to June increased by 397 tons, marking the largest demand inflow for the same period since 2020 [4]. - As of the end of June, the total gold held in ETFs reached 3,615.9 tons, the highest since August 2022, approaching the historical peak of 3,915 tons set five years ago [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from Montreal Bank Capital Markets noted that despite a brief price pullback following the Fed's rate cut, the continued inflow of ETF funds has created new upward momentum for gold prices [3]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is favorable for gold, a non-yielding asset, and the ongoing geopolitical tensions are supporting safe-haven demand [3]. - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, expect further increases in gold prices, indicating a positive outlook for the commodity in the fourth quarter [3]. Group 3: Price Trends and Risks - Spot gold prices reached a new all-time high of $3,759.16 per ounce during Asian trading on Tuesday, reflecting strong demand from investment managers and traders seeking to hedge against risks in U.S. equities [4]. - Analysts from Heraeus Precious Metals noted that gold prices have surged over 10% in the past five weeks, suggesting a potential for price consolidation or slight pullback in the short term due to overbought conditions [5].

Core Viewpoint - Investment is a competitive game that only a few can profit from, and most participants are at a disadvantage compared to the most skilled and resourceful investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - Personal investors can achieve a favorable position through an all-weather asset allocation strategy proposed by Ray Dalio, which allows for profit across various market conditions [6][7]. - Each asset class can generate returns over the long term, but significant volatility and drawdowns can hinder many investors from realizing these gains [7]. - The correlation between different asset classes is low, which supports the concept of "anti-fragility" in investment [10][12]. Group 2: Importance of Reducing Volatility - The concepts of anti-fragility, asset allocation, and diversification are not original to Dalio but have been developed by various investment masters [12]. - The two key principles of asset allocation are to invest in long-term appreciating risk assets and to buy uncorrelated assets to reduce volatility [12]. - Maintaining a diversified portfolio is crucial as it helps smooth out returns and allows for flexibility in capital allocation [14][15]. Group 3: All-Weather Portfolio Practice - A proposed all-weather portfolio consists of 20% stocks, 15% gold, 15% commodities, and 50% long-term bonds, aiming for an annualized return of 10% [16]. - Historical performance data shows that even during market downturns, such as the 2008 financial crisis, the all-weather portfolio experienced significantly lower losses compared to individual asset classes [17]. Group 4: Conclusion - The all-weather strategy provides a robust investment framework for ordinary investors, enabling them to outperform many professional investors through a systematic approach [19][20].

Group 1 - The performance of public FOFs remains strong, with all equity FOFs achieving positive returns last week [1][3] - The market saw a rebound in the AI industry chain, contributing to a general upward trend in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.65% [2] - Structural market conditions in A-shares show a lack of overall profit-making effect, yet public FOFs maintain high investment success rates, with the Guotai Industry Rotation A fund leading with a 4.29% increase [3] Group 2 - Recent adjustments in the A-share market have not altered the overall upward trend, allowing well-positioned public FOFs to capture opportunities in other sectors [7] - The number of newly launched public FOFs has significantly increased, with three new products starting fundraising last week, including the Guotai Fenghua three-month fund with a fundraising cap of 2 billion [7][8] - The emergence of ETF-FOF products marks an innovation in the FOF space, with several fund companies actively applying for these products, indicating a growing interest in passive index funds [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) serves as a bridge between stocks and mutual funds, offering real-time trading like stocks while providing diversification benefits like mutual funds [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Mechanism - ETFs can be traded on stock exchanges, allowing investors to buy and sell them directly through their stock accounts, with prices updated every 15 seconds during trading hours [4]. - Traditional mutual funds require investors to go through the fund company for transactions, with prices based on the net asset value at the end of the trading day [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Most ETFs employ a passive investment strategy, aiming to replicate the performance of specific indices such as the CSI 300 or Nasdaq 100 by holding the same constituent stocks [5]. - Investing in an ETF like the CSI 300 ETF is equivalent to purchasing a diversified portfolio of 300 leading A-share companies in one transaction [5]. Group 3: Transparency and Costs - ETFs provide daily disclosures of their holdings, allowing investors to see the underlying assets at any time, which contrasts with the higher information acquisition costs associated with individual stocks [6][8]. - The management fees for ETFs typically range from 0.15% to 0.5% per year, significantly lower than the 1% to 1.5% fees charged by actively managed mutual funds [6]. Group 4: Risk Characteristics - ETFs mitigate non-systematic risk through diversification, as seen in the 2018 A-share bear market where the CSI 300 index fell by 25.31%, while individual stocks experienced average declines exceeding 30% [12]. - Approximately 30% of the 4,000 A-shares in the market are suspected of financial fraud, highlighting the risk of investing in individual stocks compared to the diversified nature of ETFs [8]. Group 5: Suitability and Strategies - ETFs are suitable for investors seeking to participate in popular sectors like renewable energy or semiconductors without the need for extensive stock-picking skills [16]. - A core-satellite strategy can be employed, where a majority of funds are allocated to broad-based ETFs (e.g., CSI 300 ETF) as core holdings, while a smaller portion is invested in sector-specific ETFs or individual stocks for potential higher returns [16].