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卓越教育集团(3978.HK):华南K12龙头 素质教育转型成功重回扩张
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-13 04:03
Group 1 - The company is a leading education training provider in South China, established in 1997 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2018, focusing on comprehensive growth services for children [1][2] - The company has seen significant growth in net profit, with a projected year-on-year increase of 108.99% and 74.21% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, driven by a strategic shift towards quality education [1] - The K12 education market in Guangdong is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 5% for Guangzhou and 7% for Shenzhen from 2025 to 2030, reaching market sizes of 202 billion and 279 billion respectively by 2030 [1] Group 2 - The company has a strong reputation in the education sector, with a summer course renewal rate of nearly 80% in Guangzhou, leveraging its "strong Chinese language" advantage post "double reduction" policy [2] - The introduction of AI programming courses aligns with national trends in education, contributing to the company's competitive edge and expansion opportunities in the Greater Bay Area [2] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 60% and 70% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, reflecting strong cash flow and enhancing investor confidence [2] Group 3 - Revenue projections for the company are 1.995 billion, 2.381 billion, and 2.811 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 81.0%, 19.3%, and 18.1% respectively [3] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 325 million, 382 million, and 446 million, with growth rates of 68.9%, 17.6%, and 16.8% [3] - The company is currently undervalued with a target price of 6.89 HKD per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15 for 2025, indicating a potential upside of approximately 26.9% [3]