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乳业“618”分化:伊利领跑,婴配粉、鲜奶冷淡丨消费现场
Group 1: E-commerce Sales Growth - The "618" shopping festival is projected to reach a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 15.2% [2] - The duration of this year's "618" event has been extended from May 13 to June 18, compared to last year's May 20 to June 18, which may amplify this year's growth [2] - In May 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 41,326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, driven by the "618" promotions and trade-in subsidies [2] Group 2: Dairy Industry Performance - Yili has increasingly focused on the "618" event, reporting a 12.3% year-on-year growth in user purchases on major e-commerce platforms during this period [5] - Yili's infant nutrition products saw a growth of over 33%, while its adult nutrition products topped the e-commerce sales charts [5] - Despite the growth, Yili's revenue in 2024 was 115.78 billion yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year, with liquid milk revenue declining by 3.1% [9][10] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The overall demand in the dairy industry is contracting, with a 2.7% year-on-year decline in total sales across all channels in 2024 [10] - The infant formula market is shifting towards high-end products, with the ultra-high-end segment growing by 13.3% in early 2025, while other segments are experiencing declines [15] - Major brands like Danone and FrieslandCampina reported significant growth in their high-end infant formula products in 2024, indicating a trend towards premiumization in the market [16] Group 4: Pricing Strategies - Discounts in the infant formula market are limited, with brands like Feihe offering minimal promotions, contrasting sharply with aggressive discounting strategies seen in other sectors [13][14] - The fresh milk market is also experiencing limited discounts, with ongoing price wars among brands, but demand remains stable due to supply chain constraints [19][20]