证券研究报告·公司深度研究·消费电子 绿联科技（301606） 品牌出海强势推进，NAS 新品打开成长空间 2025 年 08 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,803 | 6,170 | 8,362 | 10,682 | 12,856 | | 同比（%） | 25.09 | 28.46 | 35.54 | 27.74 | 20.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 387.52 | 462.28 | 637.62 | 835.80 | 1,038.22 | | 同比（%） | 18.35 | 19.29 | 37.93 | 31.08 | 24.22 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.93 | 1.11 | 1.54 | 2.01 | 2.50 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 72.69 | 60.93 | 44.18 | 33.70 | 27.13 | [Ta ...

Core Insights - Ugreen Technology is a leading cross-border digital accessories company, with significant growth potential driven by NAS products and overseas expansion [1][2] - The company's overseas business has been growing rapidly, with a projected 46% increase in overseas revenue for 2024, accounting for 57% of total revenue [1][2] - Ugreen retains its own brand "Ugreen" in overseas markets, which enhances brand recognition and contributes to higher profit margins [2] Product Segmentation - Charging products are a key growth driver, with projected revenue of 2.35 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 51% year-on-year increase and accounting for 38% of total revenue [3] - Transmission, audio, storage, and mobile peripheral products are foundational, collectively contributing to 62% of revenue with growth rates between 12% and 21% [3] Market Opportunities - The NAS market is expected to see significant demand, with a projected global market size of $6.1 billion in 2024 and an annual growth rate of 12.1% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - Ugreen aims to capture market share in the NAS segment by offering cost-effective and user-friendly products, expanding into overseas markets for higher profit margins [2] Financial Projections - Ugreen's net profit is expected to grow to 640 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 31%, and 24% respectively [3]

Group 1: Brand Positioning and Mission - The company positions "UGREEN" as its core brand, aiming to become a globally influential brand in the tech consumer electronics sector [1] - The mission focuses on creating value for users, enhancing employee happiness, and contributing to social development [1] - The vision is to build a valuable and warm global brand through continuous optimization and effective organizational structure [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth by Product Category - In 2024, the charging category achieved a revenue growth of 50.87% year-on-year [2] - Other categories showed the following growth rates: transmission at 21.30%, audio-video at 11.64%, storage at 19.29%, and mobile peripherals at 16.21% [2] - In Q1 2025, both charging and storage categories continued to show strong growth [2] Group 3: Product Features and System - The NAS products utilize the self-developed ugos pro operating system, which is consistent for both domestic and international versions [2] - The system includes an application center for users to download applications tailored to their needs, with localized differences for various countries [2] - The ugos pro system is designed to provide a user-friendly experience, aligning with personal and family user habits, and offers fast and smooth data transmission [2] Group 4: Disclosure of Major Information - The investor communication activity did not involve the disclosure of any major information [2]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 6.17 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.46% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 462 million, up 19.29% year-on-year [1] - R&D investment reached CNY 304 million, a growth of 40.87% compared to the previous year [1] - The revenue growth rate exceeded the net profit growth rate primarily due to an additional CNY 21.34 million in share-based payment expenses [1] Revenue Breakdown - Charging products saw a revenue increase of 50.87% [2] - Transmission products grew by 21.30%, audio-video products by 11.64%, storage products by 19.29%, and mobile peripherals by 16.21% [2] - Domestic revenue accounted for 42.53% of total revenue, growing by 10.11%, while overseas revenue made up 57.47%, increasing by 46.46% [2] Geographic Performance - The Asia (excluding mainland China) region contributed 20.68% of total revenue, with a growth of 50.07% [2] - Europe contributed 19.16% of revenue, up 45.80%, and the Americas contributed 15.7%, growing by 39.92% [2] - Other regions contributed 1.93% of revenue, with a significant increase of 75.93% [2] Sales Channels - Online sales represented approximately 75% of total revenue, primarily through platforms like Amazon, JD.com, and Tmall [2] - Offline sales accounted for about 25% of total revenue [2] Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 1.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41.99% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was CNY 150 million, up 47.18% year-on-year [2] Inventory and Supply Chain - Inventory increased due to rapid growth in NAS and mobile power businesses, necessitating early procurement payments [4] - The company is expanding its product offerings in the new energy sector, including car-mounted charging pumps and lithium iron phosphate batteries [4] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its market penetration in emerging markets, particularly in Asia (non-mainland) and Europe [6] - Despite rising shipping costs, the impact on business and profitability has been minimal, as shipping costs account for about 2% of the main business costs [6] Profitability - In 2024, the gross margin for domestic business was 28.30%, while for overseas business it was 44.11% [8] - The company is actively working on product innovation and cost optimization to maintain competitiveness in overseas markets [8] Talent Management - The company employs a dual strategy of internal development and external recruitment to attract and retain talent [9] - A competitive compensation system is in place to incentivize and retain skilled employees [9]