证券研究报告·公司深度研究·消费电子 绿联科技（301606） 品牌出海强势推进，NAS 新品打开成长空间 2025 年 08 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,803 | 6,170 | 8,362 | 10,682 | 12,856 | | 同比（%） | 25.09 | 28.46 | 35.54 | 27.74 | 20.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 387.52 | 462.28 | 637.62 | 835.80 | 1,038.22 | | 同比（%） | 18.35 | 19.29 | 37.93 | 31.08 | 24.22 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.93 | 1.11 | 1.54 | 2.01 | 2.50 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 72.69 | 60.93 | 44.18 | 33.70 | 27.13 | [Ta ...

Core Insights - Ugreen Technology is a leading cross-border digital accessories company, with significant growth potential driven by NAS products and overseas expansion [1][2] - The company's overseas business has been growing rapidly, with a projected 46% increase in overseas revenue for 2024, accounting for 57% of total revenue [1][2] - Ugreen retains its own brand "Ugreen" in overseas markets, which enhances brand recognition and contributes to higher profit margins [2] Product Segmentation - Charging products are a key growth driver, with projected revenue of 2.35 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 51% year-on-year increase and accounting for 38% of total revenue [3] - Transmission, audio, storage, and mobile peripheral products are foundational, collectively contributing to 62% of revenue with growth rates between 12% and 21% [3] Market Opportunities - The NAS market is expected to see significant demand, with a projected global market size of $6.1 billion in 2024 and an annual growth rate of 12.1% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - Ugreen aims to capture market share in the NAS segment by offering cost-effective and user-friendly products, expanding into overseas markets for higher profit margins [2] Financial Projections - Ugreen's net profit is expected to grow to 640 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 1.04 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 31%, and 24% respectively [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a focus on the broad technology sector for investment in August, highlighting a "slow bull" market mentality [2][4] - The recommended stocks include leading companies across various industries, such as XianDao Intelligent in machinery and HuaQin Technology in military [2][6] - The report suggests that the current market is experiencing a consolidation phase, with a potential shift from point trading to space trading as profits are realized [4][6] Group 2 - XianDao Intelligent is expected to benefit from the restart of production by domestic leaders, with significant orders projected from partners like Ningde Times [9][10] - HuaQin Technology is positioned to grow due to its leading role in stealth materials, with projected net profits increasing from 4.98 billion to 6.56 billion from 2025 to 2027 [15][16] - Anker Innovation is recognized as a leader in consumer electronics, with a projected overseas revenue share of 96.4% in 2024, driven by strong growth in new products [20][22] Group 3 - JingZhiDa is advancing in the semiconductor testing equipment market, with significant orders expected from major clients, indicating a strong growth potential [25][26] - BoRui Pharmaceutical is projected to see net profits rise from 2.6 billion to 4.3 billion from 2025 to 2027, driven by clinical advancements [29][30] - Focus Technology is leveraging AI tools to enhance seller efficiency and increase cash flow, indicating a positive outlook for its business model [32][34] Group 4 - HaiTianRuiSheng is involved in high-quality data set development, with expected revenue growth of 61%-78% in 2025, supported by government and enterprise contracts [38][39] - DongPeng Beverage is experiencing increased sales due to enhanced brand exposure and product offerings, maintaining a "buy" rating [43][44] - DaJin Heavy Industry is positioned for growth with a strong order backlog and plans for overseas expansion, indicating robust future performance [45][46] Group 5 - XinHeCheng is a leading player in the fine chemical sector, with a focus on vitamins and amino acids, benefiting from a strong integrated supply chain [49][50] - The company is expected to see a recovery in vitamin prices and increased production capacity in amino acids, enhancing its competitive position [53][54] - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the new materials sector, driven by ongoing projects and market demand [50][52]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Ugreen Technology (301606) is positioned for growth in the charging and NAS storage markets, leading to a "buy" rating [1][2] - Ugreen started with 3C accessories and is expanding into high-potential NAS private cloud storage, with significant growth expected as brand awareness increases and product offerings expand [2][4] - The company is entering major US retail channels, which is expected to enhance its market presence and drive revenue growth [2][3] Group 2 - The charging category is experiencing positive industry dynamics, with Ugreen expected to achieve high growth through continuous product innovation and channel expansion [3] - The NAS private cloud storage segment is gaining traction, with Ugreen's innovative product iterations expected to enhance user experience and increase market share [4] - The forecasted net profits for Ugreen are projected to be 659 million, 846 million, and 1.063 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.59, 2.04, and 2.56 yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant achievements of Shenzhen Ugreen Technology Co., Ltd. in the field of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices, emphasizing its AA rating in the 2025 Huazheng Index ESG rating, placing it at the top among 148 peers, reflecting both past accomplishments and future expectations for sustainable development [1][3]. Group 1: Environmental Initiatives - Ugreen Technology prioritizes the use of environmentally friendly and recyclable materials in product manufacturing, such as TPE for USB cables and halogen-free PC materials for charging products, aiming to minimize environmental impact from the source [6]. - The company has developed "multi-port power efficient conversion technology" to optimize energy loss and conversion efficiency during the charging process, contributing to energy-saving and environmental goals [6]. Group 2: Social Responsibility - Ugreen Technology places a strong emphasis on employee care and social responsibility, creating a harmonious ecosystem that benefits both employees and the community [8]. - The company encourages employees to practice environmental protection in their daily lives and actively engages in public welfare initiatives to contribute to community development [8]. Group 3: Governance Practices - Ugreen Technology focuses on compliance and transparency in corporate governance, adhering to laws and regulations in all operational regions, and establishing a robust internal control and risk management system [10]. - The company has implemented a three-tier ESG governance structure and formed seven ESG execution working groups to integrate responsibility into its corporate DNA, enhancing transparency through ESG report disclosures [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Ugreen Technology is committed to the national "14th Five-Year" strategic plan, emphasizing "digital intelligence empowerment and green leadership," and aims to optimize resource allocation and establish risk warning mechanisms [13]. - The company plans to increase investments in green energy and low-carbon technologies, fostering innovation in product development to provide more environmentally friendly and intelligent solutions for global consumers [13].

Group 1: Brand Positioning and Mission - The company positions "UGREEN" as its core brand, aiming to become a globally influential brand in the tech consumer electronics sector [1] - The mission focuses on creating value for users, enhancing employee happiness, and contributing to social development [1] - The vision is to build a valuable and warm global brand through continuous optimization and effective organizational structure [1] Group 2: Revenue Growth by Product Category - In 2024, the charging category achieved a revenue growth of 50.87% year-on-year [2] - Other categories showed the following growth rates: transmission at 21.30%, audio-video at 11.64%, storage at 19.29%, and mobile peripherals at 16.21% [2] - In Q1 2025, both charging and storage categories continued to show strong growth [2] Group 3: Product Features and System - The NAS products utilize the self-developed ugos pro operating system, which is consistent for both domestic and international versions [2] - The system includes an application center for users to download applications tailored to their needs, with localized differences for various countries [2] - The ugos pro system is designed to provide a user-friendly experience, aligning with personal and family user habits, and offers fast and smooth data transmission [2] Group 4: Disclosure of Major Information - The investor communication activity did not involve the disclosure of any major information [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Anker Convertible Bond (123257.SZ) started online subscription on June 16, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 1.105 billion yuan. The net proceeds after deducting issuance fees will be used for multiple projects [3]. - The current bond - floor valuation is 99.26 yuan, and the YTM is 2.01%. The bond - floor protection is good [3]. - The current conversion parity is 99.41 yuan, and the parity premium rate is 0.59% [3]. - The convertible bond terms are mediocre, and the total share capital dilution rate is 1.82%, with relatively small dilution pressure on the equity [3]. - It is expected that the listing price of Anker Convertible Bond on the first day will be between 127.29 and 141.30 yuan, and the subscription rate is expected to be 0.0036%. It is recommended to actively subscribe [3]. - Since 2019, Anker Innovations' revenue has steadily increased, with a compound growth rate of 27.36% from 2019 - 2024. In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 24.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22.85% [3]. - Anker Innovations' operating income mainly comes from the charging business, and the product structure changes annually [3]. - Anker Innovations' sales net profit margin and gross profit margin are stable, the sales expense ratio decreases, the financial expense ratio first increases and then decreases, and the management expense ratio increases [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - The issuance and subscription schedule of Anker Convertible Bond is clearly arranged from June 12 to June 20, 2025 [8]. - The basic terms of Anker Convertible Bond include a 6 - year term, AA +/AA+ credit rating, specific coupon rates from the first to the sixth year, and clear conversion, redemption, and repurchase terms [3][9]. - The proceeds from the issuance will be used for projects such as R & D and industrialization of portable and household energy storage products, and the total planned investment in all projects is 1.2348577 billion yuan, with 1.10482 billion yuan from the issuance [10]. - The bond - related indicators show a pure - bond value of 99.26 yuan, a pure - bond premium rate of - 11.11%, and a pure - bond YTM of 2.01%. The equity - related indicators show a conversion parity of 99.41 yuan and a parity premium rate of 0.59% [3][10]. 3.2. Investment Subscription Suggestion - By referring to comparable convertible bonds in terms of parity, rating, and scale, and using an established empirical model, it is expected that the conversion premium rate of Anker Convertible Bond on the first - day of listing will be around 35%, corresponding to a listing price between 127.29 and 141.30 yuan [13][14][15]. - It is estimated that the priority subscription ratio of original shareholders is 73.62%, and the online subscription rate is expected to be 0.0036% [16]. 3.3. Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1. Financial Data Analysis - Anker Innovations mainly engages in R & D and sales of consumer electronics, with over 97% of its revenue from overseas sales, mainly in developed regions. The company has won many awards and recognitions [17]. - From 2019 to 2024, the company's operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company have shown growth trends, with compound growth rates of 27.36% and 22.33% respectively. In 2024, the operating income was 24.71 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.114 billion yuan [3][19]. - The charging business is the main source of revenue, and its proportion in the main business income has increased year by year from 2022 - 2024, while the proportion of other main businesses is stable [3][20]. - The sales net profit margin and gross profit margin are stable, and are significantly higher than the industry average. The sales expense ratio decreases, the financial expense ratio first increases and then decreases, and the management expense ratio increases [22]. 3.3.2. Company Highlights - Anker Innovations is a global consumer electronics company with well - known brands. It has strong product innovation and technology integration capabilities, leading in overseas e - commerce platforms [32]. - The charging and energy storage business is the core growth engine, with significant revenue growth in 2024. The company is also actively deploying in intelligent innovation and intelligent audio - visual fields [32]. - Through a light - asset operation model, global supply chain layout, and multi - channel sales strategy, the company has achieved efficient market penetration and brand building, showing strong growth and profitability [32].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Ugreen Technology (301606), reported significant growth in its first quarter of 2025, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, driven by strong demand in its core product categories and strategic expansion in overseas markets [13]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's main revenue reached 1.824 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.99% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 150 million yuan, up 47.18% year-on-year - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 143 million yuan, reflecting a 44.5% increase year-on-year - The gross profit margin stood at 38.01% [13] Product and Market Expansion - The company has seen rapid growth in its NS and mobile power businesses, particularly due to increased shipments in December of the previous year, leading to higher cash flow for inventory procurement [2] - Ugreen has expanded its product offerings to include new energy-related products such as car chargers and air pumps, which are expected to enhance overseas sales [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in the Americas and Europe, while also exploring opportunities in emerging markets [4] Cost Management and Pricing Strategy - Shipping costs, which account for approximately 2% of the company's main business costs, have not significantly impacted profitability despite recent increases [5] - The company maintains a diversified pricing strategy to manage the impact of tariffs, particularly in the U.S. market, where it plans to adjust prices to maintain profit margins [7][9] Talent Acquisition and Retention - Ugreen employs a dual strategy of internal development and external recruitment to enhance its talent pool, focusing on attracting individuals with international experience and industry expertise [12] Future Outlook - The charging product category is projected to continue its growth trajectory, with revenue in this segment reaching 2.349 billion yuan in 2024, a 50.87% increase year-on-year, accounting for 38.08% of total revenue [11] - The company aims to strengthen its product innovation and cost structure optimization to maintain competitiveness in overseas markets [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anker Innovations [1] Core Views - Anker Innovations demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and a net profit of 2.11 billion yuan, up 31% year-on-year [7][8] - The company is resilient under tariff pressures, with strategies in place to mitigate impacts, including inventory management and supply chain adjustments [7][8] - The report highlights the company's strong performance across product categories, particularly in charging products, which saw a revenue increase of 47.23% year-on-year [7][8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 24.71 billion yuan in 2024 to 32.14 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.06% [1][7] - Net profit is expected to increase from 2.11 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.49 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.57% [1][7] Product Category Performance - Charging products generated 12.67 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a 47.23% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 41.5% [7][8] - Smart innovation products achieved 6.34 billion yuan in revenue, up 39.5% year-on-year, maintaining a gross margin of 46.5% [7][8] - Smart audio-visual products reported revenue of 5.69 billion yuan, a 32.8% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.4% [7][8] Financial Metrics - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) to rise from 3.98 yuan in 2024 to 4.68 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 21.12 to 17.96 [1][7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 28% and a dividend yield of 1.8% based on the closing price on April 29 [7][8]