低硫船燃(0.5%)

Search documents
原油:单边继续观望,月差仍可能反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 03:18
Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests to continue watching the crude oil market unilaterally, while the monthly spread may still rebound [1]. Detailed Summary by Section 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) at $67.49/bbl, up $1.1, with a $3.90 premium over WTI due to North Sea field maintenance and geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) at $63.67/bbl, up $1.04, with Cushing inventory down 2.8 million barrels and strategic reserve repurchase started [2]. - Dubai (Platts) at $71.72/bbl, up $0.84, with a $0.28 premium over Oman due to strong refinery feed demand [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) at $70.1/bbl, down $1.02, with OSP cut to compete for Asian buyers [2]. - Urals (CIF) at $57.91/bbl, up $0.54, with a $9.58 discount to Brent and increased shipments [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread at $3.9/bbl, influenced by Cushing inventory decline and export facility congestion [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread at $0.28/bbl, affected by Middle - East OSP reduction and market competition [3]. - ESPO - Dubai spread at -$1.41/bbl, due to increased Russian exports [3]. - Midland - Cushing spread at $0.95/bbl, caused by pipeline capacity issues [3]. 3. Device Impact - Ukraine's attack on Russia's Primorsk terminal affected Urals crude, increasing price by $2.1/bbl immediately [5]. - Saudi's October OSP cut affected Middle - East medium crude, decreasing price by $1.02/bbl for a month [5]. - US strategic reserve repurchase is expected to affect WTI, increasing price by $0.5/bbl [5]. - Indonesia's Pertamina增产计划 will affect Southeast Asian light crude, decreasing price by $0.75/bbl in the long - term [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan VLCC freight at w64.5, up 0.15, due to Red Sea route insurance premium increase [6]. - US Gulf - China VLCC freight at $8.45m, up $1.9m, because of Panama Canal restrictions [6]. - West Africa - China Suezmax freight at w107.5, up 0.08, due to India's procurement shift [6]. 5. Different Oil Types Comparison - 92 unleaded gasoline cracking spread at $22/bbl, up 1.1, due to low Southeast Asian inventory and emergency procurement [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel cracking spread at $6.93/bbl, up 0.84, due to increased Chinese bunker fuel demand [7]. - 10ppm diesel cracking spread at $19/bbl, up 1.35, due to high African import demand [7]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread at -$2.25/bbl, down 0.95, due to delayed refinery restart in Australia [7]. 6. Key Market News - Iran's highest national security council explained the cooperation agreement with the IAEA [8]. - Ukraine attacked Russia's Kirishi refinery, causing a fire [8]. - Trump threatened new sanctions on Russia and mentioned NATO's oil purchase from Russia [8]. - US oil drilling rig count increased to 416 as of September 12 [8].