燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 @chinastock.com.cn | 研究员： | | | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/23 | 2026/1/19 | 2025/12/29 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴晓蓉 | | FU主力 | 2791 | 2643 | 2538 | 2459 | 148 | | 期货从业证号： | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 22.6 | 18.7 | 20.3 | 18.1 | 3.9 | | | | FU仓单(吨) | 66550 | 66550 | 74550 | 211390 | 0 | | F03108405 | | LU主力 | 3206 | 3116 | 3060 | 2974 | 90 | | 投资咨询从业证号： | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 12.2 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 0.7 | | Z0021537 | | LU仓单 | 6530 | 11480 | 13000 | 20040 | -4950 | | | | FU5-9 | 99 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of first falling and then rising, and fuel oil prices also followed the same pattern. High-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,415 yuan/ton, up 0.42% for the week, while low-sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,932 yuan/ton, down 2.01% for the week [3]. - Due to poor arbitrage economics in the early stage, the arrival volume of low-sulfur fuel oil from the Western market in December is expected to decline for the first time in three months, providing some support for the low-sulfur fuel oil market. However, recent chartering activities may cause the inflow of arbitrage goods to rebound again in January, and the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied throughout January and possibly extend to February. Although the ample immediate supply continues to drag down the Asian high-sulfur fuel oil market, the good downstream marine fuel demand provides some support for the market fundamentals [3]. - Despite the unfeasibility of East-West arbitrage due to high freight rates, the arbitrage arrival volume in Singapore from the Western market in December is expected to decrease. However, the significant inventory accumulation in November, combined with the considerable supply from the Middle East in recent weeks, will keep the Asian fuel oil market well-supplied throughout December and January. On the demand side, downstream marine bunkering activities are relatively stable. In addition, the decline in high-sulfur fuel oil cracking margins may boost the demand for high-sulfur fuel oil as raw materials from Asian refineries in the next few months. Attention should be paid to the impact of China's announced crude oil import quota for 2026 on raw material demand. In the short term, the prices of FU and LU will fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential boost from geopolitical events. Operationally, for high-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,350 - 2,500 yuan/ton, and for low-sulfur fuel oil, short-term operations should be conducted in the range of 2,900 - 3,050 yuan/ton [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The price trends of crude oil and fuel oil last week were first falling and then rising. The prices and weekly changes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil are given, and the supply and demand situations of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil in the Asian market are analyzed. The short-term price trends and operational suggestions for FU and LU are also provided [3][4]. 2. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of the FU and LU main contracts are presented. The FU main contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18%, and the LU main contract decreased by 86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The data of the previous and current values, price changes, and change amplitudes of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils in Zhoushan, Singapore, and the Middle East, as well as Singapore diesel, are provided. Among them, the prices of Zhoushan high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils decreased, while the prices of Singapore high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils, Middle East high-sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel increased [6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: Line charts of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross profit from 2021 - 2025 are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [7][8][9]. 4. Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: The inventory and its changes from October 8 to December 17 are given. As of December 17, the inventory was 22.559 million barrels, an increase of 140,000 barrels [10]. - **Inventory Trends**: Line charts of Singapore inventory seasonal trends and Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trends are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [11][12]. 5. Spread Data - A line chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread is presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside potential of the low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals is limited due to sufficient immediate supply. The high - sulfur fuel oil's spot premium in Singapore is supported by Trafigura's active purchases. - The overnight sharp decline in crude oil is expected to cause fuel oil to follow suit at the opening. In the short term, the fuel oil fundamentals lack stimulating factors, and it will operate at a low level. FU2601 will run weakly in the 2450 - 2550 range, and LU2601 will run weakly in the 3050 - 3150 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral, with sufficient short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil and strong purchases of high - sulfur fuel oil by Trafigura. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory in Singapore increased by 257 barrels to 2344.9 barrels in the week of November 19, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish. The high - sulfur main position is short - increasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - changing from short, with different trends [3]. - The previous day's closing price of the high - sulfur fuel oil futures was 2562, and the current price is 2492, a decrease of 70 or 2.73%. The previous day's closing price of the low - sulfur fuel oil futures was 3253, and the current price is 3155, a decrease of 98 or 3.01%. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil changed from - 3 to 28, an increase of 1012.16%, and the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil changed from 19 to 63, an increase of 227.78% [5]. - The previous day's price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 465.00, and the current price is 456.00, a decrease of 9.00 or 1.94%. The previous day's price of low - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 472.00, and the current price is 465.00, a decrease of 7.00 or 1.48%. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased from 347.21 to 345.51, a decrease of 1.70 or 0.49%. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased from 449.50 to 437.80, a decrease of 11.70 or 2.60%. The price of diesel in Singapore increased from 702.02 to 721.45, an increase of 19.43 or 2.77% [6]. 3.2 Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. - Bearish factors include the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil have limited short - term upside potential due to sufficient supply. The high - sulfur fuel oil's spot premium in Singapore is supported by Trafigura's purchases. The basis is positive, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of November 19, and the price is below the 20 - day line with a downward - sloping 20 - day line. The high - sulfur main position is short - increasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - changing from short [3]. 3.4 Spread Data The report shows the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [10]. 3.5 Inventory Data The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 barrels, an increase of 257 barrels compared with the previous period [3][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Asian high - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in the near - term, but supply pressure in Q3 is less than expected due to factors like Russian refinery bombings, reduced Mexican exports, and low Middle - East exports. High - sulfur seasonal power generation demand is falling, but feedstock demand is supported. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuously falling spot premium, with rising supply and no specific demand drivers [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Part 1: Related Data - On September 11, 2025, FU主力 was 2802, up 16 from the previous day; its position was 202,000 lots, up 6,000 lots; FU仓单 remained at 101,500 tons. LU主力 was 3374, down 9; its position was 75,000 lots, up 1,000 lots; LU仓单 remained at 10,020 tons. The spread between FU10 - 1 was 36, down 5; LU11 - 12 was 8, down 1; LU - FU主力价差 was 572, down 25; FU01 - 外盘12 was 7.1, up 1.0; LU11 - 外盘10 was 8.7, down 1.4 [3]. Part 2: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: As of September 8, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah was 7.095 million barrels, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.546 million barrels [6]. - **Quotation Research and Judgment**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in the near - term, but supply pressure in Q3 is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuously falling spot premium, with rising supply and no specific demand drivers. Pay attention to new high - sulfur warehouse receipts and inventory digestion, as well as low - sulfur quota adjustment and issuance [7]. - **Other Information**: FU仓单 and LU仓单 remained unchanged from the previous day. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread changed from 0.6 to 0.4 dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread changed from 2.3 to 2.0 dollars/ton [8]. Part 3: Related Attached Figures - The report provides six figures, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, LSFO - GO, and high - and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [10].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Fuel Oil Daily Report, July 29, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03108405 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021537 [2] Group 2: Related Data - FU Main Contract Price on July 29, 2025: 2917, up 48 from the previous day [3] - FU Main Contract Position on July 29, 2025: 192,000 lots, down 9,000 lots from the previous day [3] - FU Warehouse Receipt on July 29, 2025: 110,980 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] - LU Main Contract Price on July 29, 2025: 3640, up 95 from the previous day [3] - LU Main Contract Position on July 29, 2025: 70,000 lots, down 3,000 lots from the previous day [3] - LU Warehouse Receipt on July 29, 2025: 90 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3] - FU9 - 1 Spread on July 29, 2025: -2, up 8 from the previous day [3] - LU9 - 10 Spread on July 29, 2025: -9, down 7 from the previous day [3] - LU - FU Main Contract Spread on July 29, 2025: 723, up 47 from the previous day [3] - FU09 - Outer Market 08 Spread on July 29, 2025: -1.6, up 3.7 from the previous day [3] - LU09 - Outer Market 08 Spread on July 29, 2025: 7.3, up 4.0 from the previous day [3] Group 3: Market Research and Judgment Market Overview - Important Information: The crude oil processing volume of Mexico's Olmeca refinery at the Dos Bocas port soared to 233,000 barrels per day in June, doubling from May and reaching the highest processing volume since its operation. Pemex management announced this on July 28 [6] Market Judgment - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Domestic high - sulfur spot supply in the near - term remains abundant, and the near - month internal - external spread fluctuates at a low level below 0. Asian high - sulfur supply remains at a high level, and the Singapore high - sulfur spot premium continues to fluctuate at a low level. Russian refinery operations continued to decline in July, and near - term exports are expected to decline month - on - month. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has not worsened again but persists. Mexico's high - sulfur exports continue to decline due to the commissioning of Olmeca's second - stage unit and the decline in the operation of some refineries. The supply pressure of high - sulfur fuel oil in the third quarter is slightly less than expected. On the demand side, the peak season of refined oil products combined with the decline in high - sulfur cracking, and the increase in China's fuel oil consumption tax deduction are all beneficial to the growth of high - sulfur feedstock demand. The seasonal power - generation demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually declining. Attention should be paid to the recent import logistics changes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia [7] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium fluctuates. The low - sulfur supply continues to recover, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Nigeria's RFCC unit has returned from maintenance, but its operation is still expected to be unstable. Attention should be paid to the near - term low - sulfur export logistics changes. South Sudan's external low - sulfur raw material supply has gradually returned to the level at the beginning of 2024, and new cargo loading tenders for August have been successively announced. Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level during the normal operation of the refinery, and exports to the Singapore region have increased significantly. The low - sulfur market in China has abundant supply and stable demand. Attention should be paid to the near - term adjustment and issuance rhythm of low - sulfur quotas [7] - Other Information: FU warehouse receipts are 110,980 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; LU warehouse receipts are 90 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Aug/Sep monthly spread is -2.8 to -3.0 US dollars per ton, and the low - sulfur Aug/Sep monthly spread is 2.3 to 2.0 US dollars per ton [7] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures: Singapore high - sulfur spot premium, Singapore low - sulfur spot premium, Singapore high - and low - sulfur spread, Singapore LSFO - GO, high - sulfur fuel oil cracking, low - sulfur fuel oil cracking [10]