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大越期货燃料油早报-20251121
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upside potential of the low - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals is limited due to sufficient immediate supply. The high - sulfur fuel oil's spot premium in Singapore is supported by Trafigura's active purchases. - The overnight sharp decline in crude oil is expected to cause fuel oil to follow suit at the opening. In the short term, the fuel oil fundamentals lack stimulating factors, and it will operate at a low level. FU2601 will run weakly in the 2450 - 2550 range, and LU2601 will run weakly in the 3050 - 3150 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral, with sufficient short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil and strong purchases of high - sulfur fuel oil by Trafigura. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory in Singapore increased by 257 barrels to 2344.9 barrels in the week of November 19, which is bearish. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish. The high - sulfur main position is short - increasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - changing from short, with different trends [3]. - The previous day's closing price of the high - sulfur fuel oil futures was 2562, and the current price is 2492, a decrease of 70 or 2.73%. The previous day's closing price of the low - sulfur fuel oil futures was 3253, and the current price is 3155, a decrease of 98 or 3.01%. The basis of high - sulfur fuel oil changed from - 3 to 28, an increase of 1012.16%, and the basis of low - sulfur fuel oil changed from 19 to 63, an increase of 227.78% [5]. - The previous day's price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 465.00, and the current price is 456.00, a decrease of 9.00 or 1.94%. The previous day's price of low - sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan was 472.00, and the current price is 465.00, a decrease of 7.00 or 1.48%. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased from 347.21 to 345.51, a decrease of 1.70 or 0.49%. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore decreased from 449.50 to 437.80, a decrease of 11.70 or 2.60%. The price of diesel in Singapore increased from 702.02 to 721.45, an increase of 19.43 or 2.77% [6]. 3.2 Multi - Short Attention - Bullish factors include Russia's fuel export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises. - Bearish factors include the unproven optimistic demand and the pressure on upstream crude oil [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil have limited short - term upside potential due to sufficient supply. The high - sulfur fuel oil's spot premium in Singapore is supported by Trafigura's purchases. The basis is positive, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of November 19, and the price is below the 20 - day line with a downward - sloping 20 - day line. The high - sulfur main position is short - increasing, and the low - sulfur main position is long - changing from short [3]. 3.4 Spread Data The report shows the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [10]. 3.5 Inventory Data The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of November 19 was 2344.9 barrels, an increase of 257 barrels compared with the previous period [3][8].
大越期货燃料油早报-20250612
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 02:48
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-12燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油: 1、基本面:因现货市场竞购激烈,含硫0.5%船用油现货溢价连续第二个交易日攀升至近两周高 点,亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走强;中性 2、基差:新加坡高硫燃料油为442.59美元/吨,基差为356元/吨,新加坡低硫燃料油为504.5美元 /吨,基差为150元/吨,现货升水期货;偏多 3、库存:新加坡燃料油6月4日当周库存为2140.9万桶,减少61万桶;偏多 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方,20日线偏平;中性 5、主力持仓:高硫主力持仓空单,多翻空,偏空;低硫主力持仓空单,空减,偏空 6、预期:隔夜原油受地缘风险事件 ...
大越期货燃料油早报-20250604
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:22
CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-04燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 燃料油: 1、基本面:OPEC+8国增产幅度并未超出市场预期,此外俄乌局势紧张且欧盟收紧对俄能源制裁提振油 价上涨;偏多 2、基差:新加坡高硫燃料油为415.10美元/吨,基差为166元/吨,新加坡低硫燃料油为494.5美元/吨,基 差为186元/吨,现货升水期货;偏多 3、库存:新加坡燃料油5月28日当周库存为2201.9万桶,减少362万桶;偏多 4、盘面:价格在20日线上方,20日线偏平;中性 5、主力持仓:高硫主力持仓空单,空减,偏空;低硫主力持仓空单,空减,偏空 6、预期:原油收盘上涨,消息面稍有支撑,短期对 ...
大越期货燃料油早报-20250507
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 02:02
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-05-07燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油: 6、预期:隔夜原油回升,同时中美间开始有初步接触,贸易环境有转好迹象,短期燃油跟随原油开始 反弹。FU2507:2850-2890区间运行,LU2506:3340-3390区间运行 1、基本面:亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构小幅走弱,由于现货市场交易疲软,含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货价 差出现下滑;4月新加坡燃料油衍生品量交易量环比下降24.7%,至1263万桶,为三个月以来的最低月度 交易量;中性 2、基差:新加坡高硫燃料油为386.39美元/吨,基差为32元/吨,新加坡低硫燃料油为472.5美元/吨,基 差为161 ...
大越期货燃料油早报-20250423
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-23 02:34
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-23燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方运行,20日线偏下;偏空 5、主力持仓:高硫主力持仓多单,多增,偏多;低硫主力持仓多单,多减,偏多 6、预期:隔夜原油震荡走高,美国总统特朗普态度缓和刺激金融大环境回暖,预计燃油偏强运行。 FU2505:3000-3050区间偏多操作,LU2506:3450-3500区间偏多操作 燃料油: 1、基本面:由于下游船用需求持续疲软,亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构小幅走弱。不过,低硫船用燃料油 现货溢价在实物货船市场交易活跃推动下升至两个月高位,未来几周,亚洲高硫燃料油市场预计将得到 南亚国家夏季用电高峰 ...
大越期货燃料油早报-20250421
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-21 03:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry. However, it presents a mixed view on various factors affecting the market, with some being bullish and others bearish. Core View of the Report - The market fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil may receive some support in the short term due to the upcoming increase in summer utility demand, while the low - sulfur fuel oil market remains stable. The high - sulfur fuel oil market pressure is easing. Given the elasticity and risks of US tariff policies, international crude oil prices may fluctuate, and fuel oil is expected to follow suit. The report suggests operating within the range of 2970 - 3020 for FU2505 and 3400 - 3450 for LU2506 [3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - Fundamental factors: High - sulfur fuel oil may have limited further downside in the short term as summer utility demand rises, and the market fundamentals will get some support. The low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable, and the pressure on the high - sulfur fuel oil market is easing (neutral). The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price (bullish). Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 112 million barrels to 2598.9 million barrels in the week of April 16 (bullish). The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward (bearish). High - sulfur主力holds long positions with an increase in long positions (bullish), while low - sulfur主力holds short positions with a shift from long to short (bearish). The fuel oil is expected to follow the fluctuating trend of international crude oil, and specific operating ranges are given [3]. 2. Multi - empty Concerns - Bullish factors: OPEC+ has extended additional production cuts, and China has issued import quotas. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia. The market is driven by the resonance of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Futures market: The current prices of the FU and LU main contracts are 2981 and 3467 respectively, with increases of 28 and 54 compared to the previous values, and the increases are 0.95% and 1.58% respectively. The current bases of FU and LU are 166, with increases of 20 and 27 compared to the previous values, and the increases are 13.58% and 19.02% respectively [5]. - Spot market: The prices of various types of fuel oil in different regions have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 5.58 to 419.28, with an increase of 1.35% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory: In the week of April 16, the inventory was 2598.9 million barrels, a decrease of 112 million barrels compared to the previous week. The report also provides historical inventory data from February 5 to April 16 [3][8].
大越期货燃料油早报-20250418
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-18 01:47
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-04-18燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油: 1、基本面:随着未来几周夏季公用事业需求回升,高硫燃料油短期内进一步下跌的空间可能有限,市 场基本面仍将获得部分支撑,低硫燃料油市场整体持稳,高硫燃料油市场压力放缓;中性 2、基差:新加坡高硫燃料油为413.7美元/吨,基差为146元/吨,新加坡低硫燃料油为478.5美元/吨,基 差为139元/吨,现货升水期货;偏多 6、预期:隔夜原油震荡走高,受到美国对伊朗新一轮制裁影响部分推升燃油价格。FU2505:2970-3020 区间偏多操作,LU2505:3470-3520区间偏多操作 3、库存:新加坡燃料油4月 ...
大越期货燃料油早报-20250417
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-17 01:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for fuel oil, different factors have different biases: fundamental analysis is neutral [3]; basis is bullish; inventory is bearish; price trend on the chart is bearish; high - sulfur main position is bearish, while low - sulfur main position is bullish [3]. 2. Core View - Due to the expansion of the price difference between Singapore FOB 0.5% sulfur marine fuel and Rotterdam barge of the same grade, the east - west arbitrage economy is gradually improving, and more medium - sulfur blending components are expected to arrive in Singapore in May. The terminal demand for 0.5% sulfur marine fuel recovers slowly. Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, and the price of fuel oil was partially boosted by the new round of US sanctions on Iran. For FU2505, conduct bullish operations in the 2930 - 2980 range, and for LU2505, conduct bullish operations in the 3390 - 3420 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The supply of ultra - low sulfur fuel in Singapore is abundant, but there is still a stable demand for medium - sulfur blending components. In March, the sales volume of low - sulfur marine fuel oil in Singapore was 242.6 million tons, a 12.8% month - on - month increase but a 2.4% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is $417.26 per ton with a basis of 255 yuan per ton; low - sulfur fuel oil is $479.5 per ton with a basis of 274 yuan per ton, and the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of April 9 was 2710.9 million barrels, a 44 - million - barrel increase from the previous week [3]. - **Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main position changes from long to short, while low - sulfur main position changes from short to long [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher. FU2505: 2930 - 2980 range for bullish operations, LU2505: 3390 - 3420 range for bullish operations [3]. 3.2 Multi - Short Focus - **Bullish Factors**: OPEC+ additional production cuts continue (implementation to be tracked), and China's import quotas are released [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4]. - **Market Driver**: The co - existence of uncertain supply - side production cuts and neutral demand [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2944, the current value is 2925, a decrease of 19 or 0.65%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3401, the current value is 3374, a decrease of 27 or 0.79%. The basis of FU increased by 93 to 255, a 57.58% increase; the basis of LU increased by 65 to 274, a 31.43% increase [5]. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel decreased by $3 to $477 per ton, a 0.63% decrease; the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel remained unchanged at $483 per ton. Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased by $4.06 to $417.26 per ton, a 0.98% increase; Singapore low - sulfur fuel decreased by $1 to $479.5 per ton, a 0.21% decrease. Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased by $4.43 to $396.04 per ton, a 1.13% increase; Singapore diesel increased by $5.44 to $585.37 per ton, a 0.94% increase [6]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on April 9 was 2710.9 million barrels, a 44 - million - barrel increase from the previous week. The inventory has fluctuated in recent months, with increases and decreases in different weeks [3][8].