过去五年，美国"双反"政策呈现以下特点： （1）税率极端化，使整柜出口成本失去可控性 如： 在2021—2025年间，美国对中国产品实施的反倾销（AD）和反补贴（CVD）措施持续升级，涉及领域不断扩大，税率水平频频突破历史高点。部分产品的 合并税率甚至超过1000%，使其直接出口美国的可行性大幅降低。这些措施不仅影响企业单个订单的报价空间，更深刻改变了跨境供应链的构造方式。 当前，一个值得关注的结构性变化是： "反倾销产品能否整柜出美国"正逐步从技术问题，演变为供应链战略问题。 本新闻稿将对这一趋势进行系统分析，并梳理产业链正在出现的新走向。 01 反倾销产品"整柜出美国"难度显著提高 低速个人交通工具合并税率突破 1150%； 香兰素税率合并超过 420%。 在此类税率下，整柜出口至美国的成本结构完全被重塑，单纯依靠压价已无法抵消高税负带来的整体性冲击。 （2）反规避调查频率提升，路径依赖风险加大 木制橱柜合并税率 最高超过 550%； 活性阳极石墨材料个别企业反补贴税率超过 700%； 美国商务部与美国国际贸易委员会（ITC）在反规避调查中关注： 偏离正常贸易流的单一国家暴增路径 无实质加工的"形式原产地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of US-China economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, despite the recent escalation of tariffs by the Trump administration, which has introduced uncertainty into trade negotiations [1][10]. Group 1: Tariff Increases and Trade Negotiations - The Trump administration has announced new tariffs on six categories of Chinese imports, with rates ranging from a minimum of 86.24% to a maximum of 504.07%, and in some cases, exceeding 1157.53% when combining anti-dumping and countervailing duties [1][3]. - The US Secretary of the Treasury, Mnuchin, indicated that there may be further talks with China in three weeks, highlighting concerns over China's 30% share in global manufacturing and the desire for China to open its market to more US products [7]. Group 2: Strategic Reasons Behind Tariffs - The Trump administration's approach of conducting investigations before imposing tariffs is seen as a strategy to avoid the social and economic repercussions of a full-scale tariff war, which has already contributed to inflation and increased consumer burdens in the US [3][4]. - The administration aims to increase fiscal revenue and encourage the return of manufacturing jobs to the US, targeting lower-tech industries to reduce unemployment and fulfill campaign promises [4][6]. Group 3: Implications for US-China Relations - The ongoing trade tensions have created uncertainty in resolving trade issues, with the US heavily reliant on Chinese industrial and consumer goods, particularly in high-tech and military sectors [7][10]. - The upcoming China International Import Expo, scheduled for July 16-20, is expected to see a 15% increase in US exhibitors, indicating a continued interest from American companies in the Chinese market despite trade tensions [8][10]. - The mutual dependence in global supply chains suggests that cooperation remains the most viable path forward, as prolonged trade conflicts could exacerbate inflation and operational costs in the US [10].