新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 美元走弱背景下 铜价震荡偏强 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 消费方面，上周国内精铜杆企业开工率环比上升1.20个百分点至71.80%，略高于预期，主要受前期检修企业复产带 动；若不考虑该因素，实际开工呈下降趋势。下游消费整体疲软，电线电缆企业多观望、按需采购，废铜杆开工 下滑虽带来部分订单增量，但受终端需求偏弱制约，拉动有限。漆包线消费亦处淡季，支撑不足。原料库存环比 降2.31%至3.38万吨，成品库存因企业控产和铜价小幅回落带动订单稍增，下降5.44%至6.61万吨。预计下周开工率 将降至68.06%，主因消费持续低迷及铜价高位运行加重企业谨慎情绪。铜线缆企业开工率为68.88%，环比微降0.43 个百分点，同比大幅回落24.66个百分点，但仍略高于预期1.28个百分点。行业整体运行平稳，下游需求未见改善， 多数企业反映当前处于"上行乏力、下行有限"的淡季常态，未进一步恶化。建筑与电力等领域订单均不及预期， 其中国网招标也低于此前预估，未能有效提振需求。原料库存因企业点价后未实际提货、以消化现有库存为主， 环比下降0.33%至15080吨；成品库存受资金限 ...

九月的美国中西部，一望无际的金色豆田，本该是丰收的天堂。可农场主约翰逊却站在田埂上，满面愁 容，手里的电话安静得可怕。 以前这时候，从中国来的订单都快把他邮箱塞满了，经纪人的电话也老响个不停，他的工作就是开着大 收割机，把一颗颗黄澄澄的大豆装上车，接下来送去装船，运往太平洋彼岸。 那曾经有一条能带来财富的黄金航路，豆农们赚了不少钱，中国的餐桌也因此更丰富了。 可今年的情况完全不一样，那条热线仿佛没信号，那只"无形的手"到底是断了啥？ 特朗普总统一摆手，就挑起了对华贸易战，他自个儿觉得这是张"王牌"能让美国"再度变得出众"，可他 或许忘了，在这场全球的角力当中，每打出一张牌，都会有回应。 果不其然，中国迅速反击，关税清单里，美国大豆赫然在列。对于严重依赖中国市场的美国豆农来说， 无异于晴天霹雳。 你可能会问，世界这么大，不卖给中国，还不能卖给别人吗？ 事实是真不能！中国是全球最大的大豆进口国，胃口之大，没有任何一个国家能相提并论。失去了中国 这个"头号大客户"，那堆积如山的几千万吨大豆，就像一座沉重的大山，压得豆农们喘不过气来。 更让人担忧的是不管少了谁地球还是转，这边美国大豆正愁卖不出去那边南美巴西和阿根廷的 ...

Group 1 - China has completely ceased imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil for three consecutive months, marking the longest interruption since the trade conflict began in 2018 [1][3][5] - The Chinese government has imposed significant tariffs on U.S. energy imports, with rates reaching 94% for crude oil and 99% for LNG, severely undermining the price competitiveness of U.S. energy products [5][11] - The U.S. shale oil industry is facing dual pressures from rising equipment costs due to tariffs and falling international oil prices, pushing many companies towards survival challenges [7][9] Group 2 - China's energy import strategy is diversifying, with a notable decrease in U.S. crude oil imports, which accounted for only 1.74% of total imports last year, ranking 11th among sources [11][13] - Domestic oil production in China is expected to continue growing, supported by advancements in exploration technology and increased development efforts [13][17] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China strengthening energy ties with Middle Eastern and Russian partners while maintaining a cautious stance towards U.S. relations [15][20] Group 3 - The number of drilling platforms in the U.S. Permian Basin has decreased by approximately 3% over the past month, leading to capital expenditure cuts and layoffs among shale oil companies [19] - The U.S. oil industry is projected to see a 40% increase in pipe prices by Q4 2025, reflecting the ongoing cost pressures from tariffs [9] - China's energy security strategy is evolving from merely ensuring supply to focusing on transformation through green technology and efficiency improvements [17]

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core View - Last week (08.11 - 08.15), the price of US soybean futures mainly rose due to the hope of increased exports to China and the positive 8 - month USDA report. The price of domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated and increased, and the price of soybean No.1 futures fluctuated. Next week (08.18 - 08.22), it is expected that the center of the Dalian soybean meal futures price will move up, and the soybean No.1 futures price will rebound and fluctuate [2][5]. Summary by Related Content 1. Futures Price Performance - **US Futures**: In the week of August 15, the main November contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 5.7%, and the main December contract of US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 3.26% [2]. - **Domestic Futures**: In the week of August 15, the main m2601 contract of domestic soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.39%, and the main a2511 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly decrease of 0.83% [2]. 2. International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **Sales and Shipment**: In the week of August 7, the weekly net sales of US soybeans decreased compared to the previous week and were at the lower end of expectations. The 2024/25 annual US soybean export shipment decreased by about 23% week - on - week, and the cumulative export shipment increased by about 13% year - on - year. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 2248 tons (about 2397 tons in the same period last year) [2]. - **Soybean Goodness Rate**: As of the week of August 11, the goodness rate of US soybeans was 68%, a week - on - week decrease and in line with expectations [2]. - **USDA Report**: The August USDA supply - demand report was positive, lowering the ending stocks and inventory - to - consumption ratios of global and US soybeans in 2025/26 [2][3]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of the week of August 15, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for October - November delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [3]. - **Weather Forecast**: From August 17 to August 30, the main US soybean - producing areas will have less precipitation and temperatures will be "high first and then low", with a neutral impact [3]. 3. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Situation - **Transaction**: As of the week of August 15, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream domestic oil mills was about 100,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Pick - up**: As of the week of August 15, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 188,000 tons, flat compared to the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: As of the week of August 15, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 96 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of August 8, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream domestic oil mills was about 860,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 68% and a year - on - year decrease of about 36% [3]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of August 15, the weekly soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills was about 2.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase. It is expected to reach about 2.4 million tons next week [3]. 4. Domestic Soybean No.1 Spot Situation - **Price**: The soybean prices in the Northeast production area and some areas in the interior remained stable compared to the previous week, and the sales prices in the sales areas were also flat [4]. - **New Bean Growth**: The growth of new soybeans in the Northeast production area is good, maintaining the annual production expectation [4]. - **Auction**: The auctions of state - owned and provincial - owned soybeans continued. The state - owned auctions had partial transactions, the Heilongjiang provincial - owned auction failed, and the Jilin provincial - owned auction had a transaction rate of about 68% [4]. - **Demand**: The demand in the sales areas is dull, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the start of school in September will boost the demand [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. is set to impose tariffs on imported chips and semiconductors, potentially at rates of 200% to 300%, which has caused significant declines in semiconductor stocks such as Kioxia (down over 7%), Micron Technology (down nearly 5%), and Semtech (down over 4%) [1] - The Federal Reserve is concerned about the inflationary impact of these tariffs, which could complicate its monetary policy and potentially lead to interest rate hikes if inflation rises again [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown strong performance with over 4600 stocks advancing, driven by the financial and technology sectors, particularly the brokerage firms, indicating sustained market momentum [5] - The market has experienced two consecutive days of trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion, suggesting a bullish trend that may continue into the following week [5][7] - The phenomenon of "scarcity buying" is noted, where stocks that rise quickly attract more attention and buying interest, contributing to a potential bull market [7]

而在疯狂增长的美债中，少不了特朗普"大而美"法案的推波助澜。该法案在今年5月以微弱优势通过， 计划延长特朗普第一任期内对企业和个人的减税措施，并为小费、汽车贷款等提供新的税收减免。同时 增加国防开支、为打击非法移民提供资金，并削减了绿色能源激励政策。 马斯克预言成真，美国迎来一个首次，贝森特急切求见，中国反而不急了。今天我们来聊聊美国遇到的 危机。 日前，美国国债总额首次突破37万亿美元，这是一个前所未有的高峰。美财政部发布的数据表明，债务 的快速积累正将国家推向更深的财政困境。37万亿美元不仅仅是一个数字，它更代表着日益增加的纳税 人负担，按照美国3.42亿的人口去算，相当于每个美国人身背近80万人民币的债务。 财政专家警告称，这一债务水平将极大地影响美国的经济健康。持续的借贷可能推高利率，增加家庭和 企业的融资成本，并挤占政府的其他关键优先事务资金，这就像一个"恶性循环"：更多的借贷带来更多 的利息成本，导致更进一步的借贷。 市场分析显示，美债增长速度远超历史平均水平，如今大约每5个月就增加1万亿美元。尽管美政府凭借 美元的国际地位暂时稳住了美债，但若不加以遏制，国际市场对美债的信心或将在某一时刻彻底动摇 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing dynamics of the US-China trade war continue to attract global attention, with a superficial 90-day "truce" masking underlying tensions [1] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's proposal for a 200% secondary tariff on China at the G7 meeting was met with silence from other leaders, indicating a lack of support for aggressive tariff policies [1] - European countries, including Germany, Italy, and Japan, are closely tied to China's supply chains, leading to reluctance in supporting US measures against China [1] Group 2 - European nations are cautious about becoming collateral damage in the US-China trade war, having already experienced economic losses, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing [3] - China's countermeasures against US and European sanctions have been strategic, targeting specific European banks to convey the potential consequences of siding with the US [3] - The anticipated trade volume between China and Europe is projected to exceed 700 billion euros in 2024, with Germany's annual car sales in China reaching 2 million units, highlighting the economic interdependence [5] Group 3 - The US faces a strategic dilemma, balancing its hardline stance against China with the fragile state of its economic recovery, as tariffs have led to increased consumer prices [5] - The silence from European nations regarding the proposed 200% tariffs reflects their complex economic interests and a shift towards seeking a balance between the US and China [5] - The evolving relationship among China, the US, and Europe suggests a move towards multilateralism, with Europe unlikely to fully align with the US but instead aiming to maximize its own interests [7]

Group 1 - Trump's call for China to increase soybean orders by four times highlights the complexities of U.S. agriculture and political dynamics, reflecting a desperate plea for support from China [1] - Since the onset of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018, U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, have significantly declined, contradicting the initial intent of Trump's tariff policies aimed at protecting American farmers [1][3] - Data shows that China's soybean purchases from the U.S. fluctuated dramatically, with a surge before tariffs were implemented, followed by a near-zero purchase rate post-implementation, causing significant distress for American farmers [1] Group 2 - Trump's "white flag" stance indicates his anxiety and the awkward position of the U.S. in the global market, as other countries like Brazil and Argentina have filled the void left by U.S. soybean exports to China [3] - The initial goal of Trump's tariffs was to compel China to make concessions in trade; however, China has successfully adjusted its supply chain and established strong partnerships with South American countries [3][5] - Trump's social media statements attempt to convey sincerity, but his inconsistent attitude raises doubts about the reliability of U.S. commitments, making China hesitant to engage in new agreements [3][5] Group 3 - The restructuring of the global soybean market has diminished U.S. negotiating power, as China is not easily coerced and can quickly adapt to alternative suppliers [5] - With midterm elections approaching, Trump faces pressure to demonstrate his ability to resolve the agricultural crisis, or risk losing support from farmers to other candidates [5] - The relationship between the U.S. and China has evolved beyond mere trade, with ideological divides complicating potential resolutions, as Trump's approach reflects internal struggles within the U.S. [5][7] Group 4 - Trump's urgent call for increased soybean orders signifies a recognition of China's growing economic and military competitiveness, suggesting a potential shift in U.S. strategy towards a more flexible approach in future relations [7] - This situation prompts a critical reflection on the future direction of U.S. policy, weighing short-term trade war gains against the benefits of open cooperation with China [7]

美国总统特朗普试图以最后通牒的方式，逼迫俄罗斯在乌克兰问题妥协，实则结果证明是虚张声势，双方似乎有缓和的机会之窗。根据美国媒体的报道， 2025年8月15日，在美国阿拉斯加州，美俄首脑将进行会晤，这是二人6年来的首次会晤。 美俄首脑终于要见面了 不难看出，为了达到自己总统生涯的最高光时刻，特朗普正在做出最大让步，不仅没敢兑现威胁，还要谋求与俄罗斯总统普京当面面谈。2025年8月11日， 特朗普表示，将进行的会谈称为"试探普京，是否准备好结束俄乌战争"。特朗普说双方"将进行建设性对话"，并"可能在头两分钟内"就能知道是否有可能达 成协议。完全没有之前，发出最后通牒时的强硬。 特朗普不仅在对俄问题上强硬不起来，对华贸易战也一样强硬不起来，2025年8月11日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，将对中国的商品暂缓加征高额关 税，缓冲期为90天，新的截止日期为11月10日。中方也发布消息，证实了两国暂停关税战90天的消息。据悉，这也是特朗普第二次延长对中国的关税战缓冲 期。 中美俄之间新一轮的密集协商开启 现在特朗普明显强硬不起来，显现了愿意达成面谈不限制任何可能性的态度。他强调，"我可能会说，'祝你好运，继续战斗。'或者 ...

智通财经APP获悉，近日，知名经济学家洪灝在一场对话分享了他对当前市场的看法。洪灝指出，港股 下半年肯定还有一波行情，主要还是因为北水还在源源不断地南下。港股今年机会非常多。对于香港或 离岸投资者，洪灝相信他们会继续买港股，主要还是因为香港流动性非常充沛。另外，洪灝相信美联储 九月很快会降息，如果这样，香港金管局的货币政策跟着美联储走，香港也会降息，流动性会更充沛。 所以今年港股的机会非常多。对于香港或离岸投资者，洪灝相信他们会继续买港股，主要还是因为香港 流动性非常充沛。另外，洪灝相信美联储九月很快会降息，如果这样，香港金管局的货币政策跟着美联 储走，香港也会降息，流动性会更充沛。 香港的机会还是有的，但是有些机会无法表达的，比如内地的基建概念股、苹果产业链、特斯拉产业 链、科创50等，这些板块今年表现都非常好，但在香港市场买不到，只能去A股买。另外，今年A股小 微盘股表现也非常好，导致今年做指增，比如中证500指增基金，今年真的躺赢。所以虽然整体指数涨 得不多，但两地市场——香港和A股——今年都给大家提供了很多投资机会。 关于这轮反内卷，跟16、17年那波供给侧改革比，洪灝认为最大的不一样是，16、17年 ...