Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The May USDA supply and demand report is moderately bullish and directly benefits US soybeans. The report's first forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand balance shows that production is up, consumption increase exceeds production growth, ending stocks slightly rise, and the stock - to - use ratio drops, indicating a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation. The report also lowers the ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios of US soybeans for both 2024/25 and 2025/26, directly favoring US soybeans [1][54]. - The progress of US trade negotiations, especially the substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks and the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", is conducive to the export demand of US soybeans and directly benefits US soybeans. Continuous attention should be paid to China - US and other US trade negotiations to prevent uncertainties such as negotiation setbacks or stagnation [1][54]. - The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is seeking a phased low. Recently, the domestic soybean meal market has diverged from the US soybean market. On one hand, it has pre - priced the easing of China - US trade frictions; on the other hand, it has been dragged down by the sharp decline in spot prices and pre - priced the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing and the downside space is limited, the market still needs to find a phased low and stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. May USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global Soybean Situation**: The 2025/26 global soybean production is estimated at 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons (about 1.4%); consumption is estimated at 424.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.76 million tons (about 3.4%); exports are estimated at 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; imports are estimated at 186.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 124.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.54%. For 2024/25, the global soybean production is estimated at 420.87 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons from the April estimate; consumption is estimated at 410.29 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons from the April estimate; exports are estimated at 180.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; imports are estimated at 178.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; ending stocks are estimated at 123.18 million tons, an increase of 710,000 tons from the April estimate; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.84%, an increase of 0.18% from the April estimate [3][4][7]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In 2025/26, US soybean production is estimated at 118.12 million tons, a decrease of 720,000 tons; ending stocks are estimated at 8.03 million tons, a decrease compared to previous estimates; the stock - to - use ratio is 6.68%. In 2024/25, production is estimated at 118.84 million tons (unchanged from the April estimate), ending stocks are estimated at 9.53 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons from the April estimate, and the stock - to - use ratio is 7.99% [3][7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Production Changes**: In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to increase by 6 million tons, China's by 350,000 tons, while the US's decreases by 720,000 tons and Argentina's by 500,000 tons. In 2024/25, the production of the US, Brazil, and Argentina remains unchanged [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Consumption Changes**: In 2025/26, consumption in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China all increase. In 2024/25, global consumption is adjusted down by 380,000 tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's consumption [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Export Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean exports are estimated to increase by 7.56 million tons. In 2024/25, global exports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, with the US increasing by 680,000 tons, Brazil decreasing by 1 million tons, and Argentina decreasing by 300,000 tons [5]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Import Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean imports are estimated to increase by 8.66 million tons. In 2024/25, global imports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's imports [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Ending Stocks Changes**: In 2025/26, global ending stocks are estimated to increase by 1.15 million tons. In 2024/25, the US's ending stocks decrease by 680,000 tons, Argentina's increase by 100,000 tons, Brazil's increase by 1 million tons, and China's remain unchanged [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Stock - to - Use Ratio Changes**: In 2025/26, the global stock - to - use ratio decreases, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation. In 2024/25, the global stock - to - use ratio shows a slight increase, indicating a slightly looser supply - demand situation [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Meal Situation**: The May USDA report slightly raises the 2025/26 global soybean meal production and consumption, with consumption growth exceeding production growth and a slight increase in ending stocks, having a slightly bearish impact. The 2025/26 global soybean meal production is estimated at 287.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.52 million tons; consumption is estimated at 283.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.55 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 18.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.73 million tons. The ending stocks of Argentine soybean meal are slightly lowered, while those of the US, Brazil, India, and China are slightly raised [33]. 2. China - US Economic and Trade Talks - **2024/25 US Soybean Sales Progress**: As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the cumulative sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season are about 47.72 million tons, with a sales progress of about 95%, faster than the same period last year (about 92%). There are about 2.63 million tons of unsold US soybeans, and the remaining sales time is about 4 months, indicating relatively low sales pressure [36]. - **2025/26 US Soybean Sales and Trade Negotiations**: The sales of US soybeans in 2025/26 mainly depend on trade agreements. Key trade negotiation progress includes: the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", where the US and China have reached multiple positive consensuses, and the US has promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify part of the remaining tariffs; the US and the UK have reached a trade agreement; Pakistan has purchased 345,000 tons of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season; the EU, Japan, and Indonesia are planning to increase their purchases of US soybeans but are still in the negotiation stage [36][37][38]. 3. US Soybean Spring Planting Weather - **Early - May Planting Progress**: As of the week ending May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, faster than 35% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 37%; the US corn planting progress is 62%, faster than 49% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 56%, mainly due to warm and dry weather in the main production areas [50]. - **Mid - to - Late - May Weather Impact**: According to the May 12 weather forecast, there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean and corn production areas in mid - to - late May, which may slow down the planting progress and have a slightly bullish impact. Since US soybeans and corn are still in the early planting stage, there is still uncertainty about the weather in the later planting and growth stages, and there is a possibility of a "weather market" [50]. 4. Summary - **US Soybean Outlook**: The May USDA supply and demand report and China - US economic and trade talks are bullish for US soybeans. The report's forecast for 2025/26 shows a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation, and the reduction in US soybean ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios directly benefits US soybeans. The progress of trade negotiations, especially the China - US talks, is conducive to US soybean exports [54]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Outlook**: The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is looking for a phased low. It has diverged from the US soybean market, pre - pricing trade friction easing and the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing, the market still needs to stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54].