道是无晴却有晴 — 2026 年菜油年报 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 投资咨询部 研究员: 龚悦 从业资格号：F3023504 投资咨询号：Z0014055 初审：张莎 从业资格号：F03088817 投资咨询号：Z0019577 复审：赵肖肖 从业资格号：F0303938 投资咨询号：Z0022015 菜油：道是无晴却有晴 龚悦，硕士研究生学历，郑商所"资深高级分析师"，分别于 2021 年、2020 年、2019 年连续三年荣获"郑商所高级分析师"称号。安粮期货投资咨询部投资顾 问岗，中级经济师。从业以来，累积为三十余家企业提供产业风险对冲服务，担 任四十余场由交易所主办的行情分析研讨会、圆桌论坛主讲分析师。在《期货日 报》、《和讯期货》、《对冲研投》、《文华财经》、《资管网》等平台上公开 发表研究与策略报告四十余篇。 研究方向与特点：注重产业链研究体系、交易策略体系与风控体系的构建与 修正。 龚悦 安粮期货投资咨询部 观点摘要 宏观层面：2026 年，国内外所处的宏观周期或不支持油脂等农产品演绎出趋 势性上行行情。另一方面，美元走弱或为大宗商品价格提供一定程度的支 撑。 国外菜油供 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 国贸期货研究院 投资咨询号: Z0021658 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 从业资格号:F03110419 | 支撑，关注1月USDA供需报告的对美豆单产及出口的调整。短期南美天气无明显炒作驱动。阿根廷产区近期天气偏干但目前土壤随情适 | 宜,短期暂无明显不利影响，需缴纳观察;目前巴西大豆播种已接近尾声,巴拉那州已经开始收割。在巴豆丰产预期下，关注1月收割卖 | 压对巴西CX升贴水的影响,美盘和巴西贴水之和预期仍有下跌空间,若无特殊事件影响,M05预期仍然相对偏弱。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 结 | 国内1月大豆去库预期有所加速，同时出于对一季度缺豆以及海关检验延长的担忧。下游的节前备货预期较为积极,有利于支撑国内 | 春节前的现货价格走势。一季度进口大豆货权集中带来国内供应结构性问题。对103带来支撑，MO3-105短期仍你正套，风险在干政策变 | 化。海关检验趋严政策带来的供应延迟和停机问题，进口大豆拍卖或者定向具体的量级、价格及出货节奏难以预测，建议投 ...

农产品 2026 年展望：余裕渐消，缓步上扬 20251208 摘要 大宗商品市场在经历疫情后的供需错配和地缘政治风险后，预计 2025 年触底，2026 年或迎来周期性上行，但需警惕贸易摩擦和天气周期变 化对农产品供给的影响，尤其是拉尼娜气候可能导致北美大豆单产下降。 农产品市场自 2022 年以来持续下跌后，已出现供给端收缩迹象，如大 豆和棉花种植面积减少，生猪去产能。预计 2026-2028 年太阳黑子活 动衰退叠加拉尼娜现象，将加速消化过剩供应，推动农产品价格稳步上 扬。 当前谷物和食品类农产品价格已回落至 2018-2019 年水平，与 2012- 2016 年周期对比，已显现震荡向上趋势。在油价稳定的前提下，市场 正处于新一轮上行周期的起点，是入场等待周期上行的时机。 全球大豆市场供需紧平衡，预计 2025-26 年度产量小幅下降，期末库存 减少。美国大豆出口虽受中美贸易摩擦影响低于历史水平，但国内消费 增加，生物能源政策推动压榨量，预计 2026 年美豆价格将在 1,050- 1,250 美分区间波动。 美国玉米市场前景看好，2025 年全球产量创新高，需求强劲，美国出 口创五年新高。供给压力释 ...

Group 1 - The domestic soybean meal market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, with tight U.S. soybean supply but a generally loose global soybean supply [2] - The USDA has lowered U.S. soybean yield, production, and ending stocks, with the stocks-to-use ratio dropping to a three-year low of 6.74%, despite some recovery in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans [2] - Global soybean inventory is projected to decrease to 122 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, but this still represents a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating a shift from accumulation to moderate destocking [2] Group 2 - The La Niña phenomenon may introduce complexities for South American soybean growth, with Brazil's soybean planting progress lagging behind last year, yet yield forecasts remain high [3] - Argentina's soybean planting is significantly delayed due to flooding, and if adverse weather persists into December, the estimated production of 48.5 million tons may face downward revision [3] Group 3 - China's port soybean inventory remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 292.95 million tons, reaching 9.425 million tons as of November 21 [4] - Market expectations indicate that China will import 8 million tons and 7.5 million tons of soybeans in November and December, respectively, with total imports expected to exceed 110 million tons in 2025 [4] - Even without U.S. soybean imports, domestic soybean supply is expected to remain ample through the fourth quarter due to high inventory levels [4] Group 4 - Domestic oil mills are operating at high capacity, with weekly soybean crushing volumes around 2.3 million tons, leading to a significant increase in soybean meal inventory [5] - As of November 21, soybean meal inventory reached 1.1515 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.11 million tons, reflecting a 49.47% rise [5] - Despite stable demand from livestock and poultry, cautious purchasing behavior from feed companies limits the growth of soybean meal consumption [5] Group 5 - The cost of imported soybeans is providing strong support for soybean meal prices, with high premiums for Brazilian soybeans and a rebound in U.S. soybean futures prices [6] - The overall global soybean supply remains loose, but high import costs are limiting the downside potential for soybean meal prices [6] - Future price movements will depend on South American weather conditions and developments in U.S.-China trade relations [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soybean/M粕类**: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday due to demand support and pre - holiday short - covering. The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [2][3][5]. - **Oils and Fats**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded. Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future, and it is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [7][9]. - **Sugar**: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [11][12]. - **Cotton**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [14][15]. - **Eggs**: The spot market is in a stalemate. The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [17][18]. - **Pigs**: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/M粕类 - **Market Information**: CBOT soybeans rose on Wednesday. Brazilian soybean premiums increased slightly, and domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 231.73 million tons. As of November 22, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 78.0% [2][3]. - **Strategy**: The import cost bottom may have emerged, but upward space requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, while production showed mixed trends. Domestic oils stopped falling and rebounded on Wednesday, and the spot basis rose slightly [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil may reverse its supply - surplus situation in the future. It is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective, and turn to a long - position if production decline signals appear [9]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. Brazilian sugar production in the first half of November 2025 is expected to increase by 18.9% year - on - year. As of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, a decrease of 26 compared to last year [11]. - **Strategy**: New sugar - cane season production in major countries is expected to increase, and the global sugar market is shifting from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short at high prices and close positions when prices fall [12]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. As of November 21, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is expected to increase by 52 million tons [14]. - **Strategy**: After the peak season, demand is not too bad, and the market lacks strong driving forces. Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices remained stable on the previous day, with supply and demand in a stalemate [17]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is expected to fluctuate before the spot price rises seasonally. In the medium - term, pay attention to supply and wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Domestic pig prices mainly fell on the previous day, with some areas rising slightly. The supply of live pigs remains high, and the price increase space is limited [20]. - **Strategy**: The supply of live pigs remains under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or use reverse spreads [21].

农产品早报 2025-11-12 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 隔夜 CBOT 大豆基本稳定，市场等待 USDA 月报给出指引。周二巴西升贴水小幅下跌，大豆到港成本上 升，国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2990 元/吨，豆粕成交较弱、提货较好。MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大 豆再度累库至 1000 万吨以上，因到港量偏大且开机率下滑，MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 215.79 万吨，上周压榨大豆 180.57 万吨。 杨泽元 未来两周，巴西大豆产区东南部降雨分散不均且偏少，其他地区较为正常，据外媒报道，截至上周四， 巴西 2025/26 年度大豆播种率已经达到预期的 61%，去年同期为 67 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [2] - Report Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton is in a range - bound adjustment in the short term. The short - term macro influence is strengthening. The overseas market is oscillating weakly, while the domestic market has a slight improvement in demand and some support from rigid demand, but it is also affected by factors such as new cotton picking and the wait - and - see attitude of ginners [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The spot price of 328 - grade cotton was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of cotton in different regions was reported. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, the cotton cloth market demand was weak, and the home textile market had increased sales but poor order continuity [7] - **Macro and Overseas Market**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Spain, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision this week. The USDA September supply - demand report was slightly bearish. The weekly export data of US cotton weakened, and the CFTC fund net long position remained low, with the outer market oscillating weakly [8] - **Domestic Market**: Some areas have started manual picking, and mechanical picking will start next week. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, with a slight year - on - year increase. Ginners are waiting for price guidance. The demand side has a slight destocking of finished products, and the downstream weaving mills' operation rate has a seasonal increase, with rigid demand support [8] 3.2 Industry News - In August 2025, China's clothing, footwear, and knitted textile revenue was 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative revenue was 940 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% - As of September 11, the inventory of ICE's deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contract remained at 15,474 bales. As of September 9, 2025, the net long position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 27.05%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rate data [16][20][26]

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs to be tested. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the sugar price is likely to continue to fall, while the cotton price may have upward momentum in the short - term. The egg market is in a negative cycle of oversupply, and the pig market follows a range - bound trading idea [3][5][10][13][16][18][20] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, while domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly by 0 - 20 yuan/ton, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.51 days. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.5283 million tons are expected to be crushed. The soybean inventory decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level [3] - **Weather and Output**: The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next week, and it has been dry in August. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean output has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal market will start to reduce inventory in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the high end [5] Oils - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, and the production first increased and then decreased. The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons. In the fourth quarter, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline seasonally, and India's pre - Diwali restocking demand will support the price [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft may suppress soybean oil exports, and the potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10] Sugar - **Key Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The Brazilian port's sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity decreased. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high this season, and the northern hemisphere's main producing countries may also increase production in the new season [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The probability of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to fall [13] Cotton - **Key Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 54% [15] - **Trading Strategy**: Considering the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum [16] Eggs - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few slightly adjusted. The supply was normal, the downstream sales were slow, and the trade - link inventory increased slightly [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The egg market's negative cycle of oversupply has not been broken. It is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the egg price. From the perspective of capital game, it is not advisable to short excessively, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [18] Pigs - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend of rising, falling, and remaining stable. The northern large - scale farms' slaughter decreased, and the demand increased, while the supply and demand in the south both increased [19] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures logic is to relieve pressure due to oversupply. The short - term market is range - bound. The long - term spread inversion strategy continues [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural product market, including soybean/meal, oils and fats, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs. It assesses the current market situation, important information, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each category [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans rose slightly. Domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price dropped by 20 yuan/ton, and the East China basis remained unchanged at 01 - 110. The downstream inventory days increased slightly by 0.16 days to 8.51 days. Last week, domestic soybean crushing was 2.27 million tons, and this week it is expected to be 2.5283 million tons. The domestic soybean inventory decreased slightly last week, while the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the overall equivalent soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The US soybean production area is expected to have less rainfall in the next week, and it has been dry in August overall, with rainfall forecast to recover in early September. The USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. The domestic soybean meal market has both strong supply and demand, and the提货 volume has been at a high level. It is expected that the spot market may start to reduce inventory in September, which will support the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the upper end [4]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67%, and the exports from August 1 - 25 are expected to increase by 10.9% - 16.4%. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and it is expected to increase by 0.3% from August 1 - 20. In August, China's imported soybean arrivals and oil mill crushing volume are still high, and the commercial soybean oil inventory at the end of August is expected to increase by 8 - 100,000 tons. Due to China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed imports have decreased recently, and some areas have cancelled orders. It is expected that the rapeseed oil inventory at the end of August will decrease month - on - month. A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban on Monday, temporarily suspending a decision that required grain traders in the world's largest soybean exporter to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft is expected to suppress soybean oil exports. The palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia support the price center of oils and fats. If the demand countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production remains at a neutral level, the producing areas may maintain stable inventory, and there may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. Before the inventories in the sales areas and producing areas are fully accumulated and there is no negative feedback from the demand in the sales areas, the oils and fats are expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton or 0.98% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,950 - 6,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of August 20, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 70, down from 76 in the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 2.9169 million tons, down from 3.3179 million tons in the previous week [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: From an international perspective, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly month - on - month since July, and there is an expected increase in production in the new season in major northern hemisphere producing countries such as India. The possibility of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price in the future is low. Domestically, the import supply will gradually increase in the next two months, and the out - of - quota spot import profit has been at the highest level in the past five years. The Zhengzhou sugar price is more likely to continue to fall [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 14,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The spot price of 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 54%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but still significantly higher than the same period last year and at a relatively high level in the same period [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: From a macro perspective, the "dovish" statement of the Fed Chairman on Friday is beneficial for the commodity market to rise. Fundamentally, although the current downstream market consumption is still average, considering the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the current low domestic cotton inventory, the fundamentals show signs of marginal improvement. The Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum in the short term [15]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main producing areas rose 0.06 yuan to 3.11 yuan/jin. The supply is stabilizing, the downstream digestion speed is normal, most traders have normal confidence in the future market, the overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the downstream picking - up enthusiasm is normal. The egg price may rise in some areas and remain stable in others today [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fundamentally, the negative cycle of oversupply in the egg market has not been broken. On one hand, the number of newly - laid hens is still increasing, and the proportion of small and medium - sized eggs continues to rise. On the other hand, the consumption postponement caused by supply pressure intensifies the cautious mentality. Only low prices or the start of consumption can break the negative cycle. Before the actual reduction of overall production capacity, the egg price should not be overly optimistic. From a capital game perspective, the current high position in the futures market and the high premium of the near - month contract have been partially corrected. Under the background of reduced selling pressure, it is not advisable to short aggressively. In the future, the strategy should be to reduce short positions or short after a rebound [19]. Pigs - **Important Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally fell. The average price in Henan dropped 0.15 yuan to 13.56 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.05 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. The enthusiasm of farmers for slaughter increased, but there was some reluctance to sell at low prices. The pig price may be stable or fall today [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current logic is to release pressure by reducing the weight under oversupply. The near - month contract is weakly affected by the spot market. On one hand, policies such as state purchases to support the market are increasing, which may continuously suppress the bearish sentiment. On the other hand, it is still uncertain whether the potential pressure on inventory in the third - quarter end after the increase in the fat - to - standard price difference can offset the increasing supply trend. The market should be viewed with a range - bound idea, and for unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the trading opportunities after extreme sentiment provides trading space. The far - month reverse spread strategy continues [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The August USDA report is bullish, as it lowers the ending stocks and inventory - to - use ratios of global and US soybeans for the 2025/26 season. The tightening of the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is the core bullish factor. This not only provides current bullish support but also has potential bullish implications, boosting US soybean prices and, through cost transmission, helping domestic soybean meal futures prices rise. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [1][44]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - month USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global and US Soybean Supply - Demand Adjustments**: In 2025/26, global soybean production is estimated at 426.39 million tons, a 1.29 - million - ton decrease from July, mainly due to a 1.16 - million - ton reduction in US production. Consumption is estimated at 425.1 million tons, a 70,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 187.44 million tons, a 190,000 - ton decrease. Ending stocks are estimated at 124.9 million tons, a 1.17 - million - ton decrease. In 2024/25, global soybean production is estimated at 423.97 million tons, a 1.97 - million - ton increase from July. Consumption is estimated at 410.69 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton increase. Exports are estimated at 181.75 million tons, a 1.02 - million - ton increase [4][5][7]. - **Global Soybean Meal Supply - Demand Adjustments**: In 2025/26, global soybean meal production is estimated at 288.58 million tons, unchanged from July. Consumption is estimated at 284.35 million tons, a 10,000 - ton decrease. Exports are estimated at 82.04 million tons, an 80,000 - ton increase. Ending stocks are estimated at 18.07 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease, and the inventory - to - use ratio decreases slightly [26]. 3.2 US Soybean Exports - **Export Outlook Improvement**: In mid - to - late July 2025, the US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, Indonesia, and South Korea. Sino - US economic and trade talks are ongoing, improving the outlook for US soybean exports [30]. - **Export Progress in Different Seasons**: For the 2024/25 season, as of the week ending July 31, 2025, cumulative US soybean export sales were about 51.49 million tons, with a sales progress of about 100.9%. The USDA has raised the export estimate three times. For the 2025/26 season, as of the same week, cumulative export sales were about 3.58 million tons, with a sales progress of about 7.7%, lagging behind the same period last year. Chinese buyers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans for the 2025/26 season [32][34]. 3.3 US Soybean Weather The August USDA report significantly raises the US soybean yield estimate, but there is still uncertainty in the weather. The current yield estimate is close to the "perfect weather" scenario, with limited upside but significant downside potential. Recent weather forecasts show that there are some flaws in the weather in the US soybean - growing areas, which may lead to a decrease in yield [38][39]. 3.4 Summary The August USDA report is bullish, tightening the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet. The "low - area, high - yield" pattern of new - crop US soybeans has both current and potential bullish implications. Attention should be paid to the export demand of US soybeans [44].