二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 08 月 13 日 豆粕：8 月 USDA 报告利多，助力价格上行 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 8 月 USDA 供需报告下调 2025/26 年全球和美豆期末库存、库存消费比下降，影响利多。本次报告核 心利多是美国大豆供需平衡表收紧：旧作 2024/25 年美豆平衡表收紧是因为供应不变、需求上调（美豆 出口和国内压榨均上调），从而期末库存下调。新作 2025/26 年美豆平衡表收紧则是因为供应减量大于需 求减量，期末库存进一步下调。我们认为，本次 USDA 报告对于新作美豆产量给出"低面积、高单产"格 局具有两层意义：从现实角度而言，按照目前美豆产量预估、美豆期末库存收紧，支撑目前价格；从预期 角度而言，"低面积、高单产"格局下：面积上调空间小、单产下调空间大。因为美豆种植季节已经结 束、难以再度增加种植面积，而单产基本按照"天气完美"模式预估、上调空间有限。反之，若天气出现 瑕疵、单产下调空间较大，届时美豆产量仍有下调空间、美豆平衡表可能再度收紧。所以本次报告除了现 实利多、也具备潜在利多，提振美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the US soybean futures will maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core operating range between 900 - 1150 cents per bushel [2]. - The supply is loose, which suppresses the upper limit; the cost provides support at the lower limit; and there is a structural differentiation in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 US Soybean Futures Trend Review - January - February: South American weather factors and Sino - US trade friction expectations jointly pushed up prices. Adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil affected supply, and Chinese crushers' concentrated purchases of US soybeans due to potential trade risks increased demand [7]. - March: The market showed "expected - realization" characteristics, and the improvement of Brazil's harvesting progress led to price corrections. After the tariff announcements, the price first declined and then rebounded, and later entered a sideways - shock pattern [7]. - April: The downward adjustment of the new - crop area estimate and the end of the trade - war negative news led to a V - shaped reversal in price and then maintained a shock. The expected reduction in the US soybean planting area and the market's expectation of tariff reduction drove the price movement [8]. - May: The easing of trade tensions led to narrow price fluctuations. The Sino - US agreement improved the trade outlook and increased the market's expectation of China's demand recovery [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Framework: A Volatile Pattern under the Game of Bulls and Bears 3.2.1 Supply Side: Structural Contradictions in the Loose Pattern - Global oilseeds: In the 2025/26 season, the global oilseed market will see a mild increase in both supply and demand. The total output of seven core oilseed varieties is expected to reach 692.1 million tons (+2.2% year - on - year), and the total consumption is expected to reach 687.65 million tons (+2.9% year - on - year). The inventory - to - consumption ratio will remain at 20.8%. The market is expected to continue the range - bound trend [13]. - Global soybeans: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output and consumption will both increase. The output is expected to reach 426.82 million tons, and the consumption will reach 424.05 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 20.3%, but it is still at a relatively high level, indicating an overall supply - surplus situation [20]. - Brazil: The soybean harvesting area is expected to increase to 48.8 million hectares, and the output is expected to reach a record 175 million tons. Domestic consumption and exports are also expected to increase. However, the final output depends on the weather during the growing season [22][23]. - US: The soybean harvesting area is expected to decrease by about 1.35 million hectares. The output is expected to be 111.8 million tons, a slight decrease. Exports are expected to decrease, while domestic consumption is expected to increase. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 6.7%, indicating a tight - balance supply - demand situation [26]. - Argentina: In the 2025/26 season, the soybean output is expected to be 48.5 million tons, and the domestic consumption is expected to be 50.5 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 13.2%, indicating a balanced supply - demand relationship [29]. 3.2.2 Demand Side: The Rigid Growth of Protein Meal Consumption - The feed protein raw material supply pattern is diversified, with soybean meal accounting for 70% of the market share. In the 2025/26 season, the global protein raw material consumption will maintain a steady growth trend. The total consumption is expected to exceed 394.78 million tons, an increase of 14.82 million tons (+3.9% year - on - year) [33][34]. - Since 2020, the global protein meal consumption has shown a differentiated growth trend. Rapeseed meal has the highest consumption growth rate, and emerging economies have become the main driving force for the growth of protein meal consumption [40]. 3.3 Trading Strategies: Trading Opportunities in a Volatile Market 3.3.1 US Soybean Prices in H2 2025: Mainly Sideways - Shocking - The global oilseed market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the overall supply is relatively loose. The high - yield pressure in South America and the cost support in North America form a game of bulls and bears. It is expected that the US soybean prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the second half of 2025 [42]. 3.3.2 Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Band - buying based on cost support. Buy at the level of 900 - 950 cents per bushel, set the stop - loss at around 880 cents per bushel, and the target price at 1100 - 1150 cents per bushel [44]. - Strategy 2: A positive spread strategy of buying January and selling May. Due to the tight US soybean balance sheet and the probability of Brazil's continued expansion of planting, this strategy is highly feasible, and the better buying times are July and October [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The June USDA supply and demand report made minor adjustments to the global soybean balance sheet and did not adjust the US soybean balance sheet, having little impact. The global soybean supply - demand remains tight as the inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/26 global soybean is expected to decline [1][34]. - The US soybean spring planting progress in 2025 was fast at first and then slow, and the market mainly traded the bearish factors while ignoring the marginal bullish factors and weather flaws [27][34]. - Pay close attention to the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June, as it is closer to the actual situation and has differences from market expectations in previous years [2][31]. - The domestic soybean meal futures price rebounded after reaching a low in May, and the May low may become a phased low [2][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. June USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global Soybean Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean output remained unchanged at 426.82 million tons compared to the May estimate; consumption increased by 100,000 tons to 424.15 million tons; exports remained unchanged at 188.43 million tons; imports increased by 40,000 tons to 186.86 million tons; and the ending inventory increased by 970,000 tons to 125.3 million tons due to the increase in the beginning inventory. The global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio in 2025/26 is about 20.45%, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation [4][5][8]. - **US Soybean Balance Sheet**: There were no adjustments to the US soybean balance sheet for both the 2024/25 and 2025/26 periods in terms of output, consumption, exports, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [4]. - **Other Major Countries**: The soybean output of Brazil, Argentina, and China in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 periods was not adjusted. China's soybean consumption in 2024/25 decreased by 1 million tons due to the reduction in crushing volume [4][5]. - **Global Soybean Meal**: In the 2025/26 period, the global soybean meal output increased by 100,000 tons to 287.73 million tons, consumption increased by 150,000 tons to 283.52 million tons, exports increased by 300,000 tons to 81.23 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 18.37 million tons [23]. 2. US Soybean Spring Planting - The US soybean planting progress in 2025 was fast at first and then slow. As of the week of June 9, the planting progress was 90%, faster than the same period last year and the five - year average. The market mainly traded the bearish impact of the fast - paced planting and ignored the marginal bullish factors of the slowdown [27]. - The temperature in the US soybean growing areas was low in mid - to - late May, and the early - stage good - quality rate was average. The market did not trade the weather flaws but mainly focused on the weather forecast. According to the June 12 weather forecast, the weather in some major growing areas in mid - to - late June was mixed, with some areas having more precipitation and others less [27]. 3. Focus on the USDA Planting Area Intention Report at the End of June - As of the week of June 9, the US soybean planting was nearly completed, and the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June is closer to the actual situation. In previous years, there were differences between the report and market expectations, and it is difficult to accurately predict, so it is necessary to wait for the USDA's guidance [31]. 4. Summary - The June USDA supply and demand report had little impact. The market mainly traded the bearish factors of US soybean planting, and the weather flaws were not considered. Pay attention to the USDA planting area intention report at the end of June [34]. - The domestic soybean meal futures price rebounded after reaching a low in May, and the probability of the May low becoming a phased low increased if there are no additional major bearish factors [35].

Report Title - 2025/26 Annual Global Agricultural Product Supply and Demand Situation Forecast - Interpretation of the May 2025 USDA Supply and Demand Report [1] Core Viewpoint - Based on the data from the May USDA global agricultural product supply and demand report, the report analyzes the supply and demand situations of global grains, oilseeds, US livestock and dairy products, and global soft commodities (cotton) in the 2025/26 period, providing an overview of the future trends of these major agricultural products [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Section Summaries 1. Grains - **Overall**: In the 2025/26 period, global grain production is expected to reach 2.89676 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 57.28 million tons; total supply will increase by 27.85 million tons to 3.66349 billion tons; total consumption will increase by 38.44 million tons to 2.90735 billion tons; ending stocks will slightly decrease by 10.6 million tons to 756.14 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.72% to 26.01%. Global grains will continue to draw down stocks [4] - **Corn and Coarse Grains**: Production is expected to be 1.54952 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.47 million tons; total supply will increase by 16.84 million tons to 1.86594 billion tons; total consumption will increase by 27.92 million tons to 1.5606 billion tons; ending stocks will slightly decrease by 11.08 million tons to 305.34 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.97% to 19.57%. The US corn planting area will increase by 4.7 million acres to 95.3 million acres, production is expected to increase by 1 billion bushels to 15.82 billion bushels, ending stocks will increase by 385 million bushels to 1.8 billion bushels, and the stock-to-use ratio will rise from 9.28% in the previous year to 11.64% [6] - **Wheat**: Production is expected to be 808.52 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.81 million tons; total supply will increase by 4.9 million tons to 1.07373 billion tons; total consumption will increase by 4.38 million tons to 808 million tons; ending stocks will slightly increase by 520,000 tons to 265.73 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.11% to 32.89%. The global wheat supply-demand pattern is basically stable [13] - **Rice**: Production is expected to be 838.71 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9 million tons; total supply will increase by 6.1 million tons to 723.82 million tons; total consumption will increase by 6.14 million tons to 538.75 million tons; ending stocks will slightly decrease by 400,000 tons to 185.07 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.4% to 34.35%. The global rice supply-demand pattern has improved [17] 2. Oilseeds - **Overall**: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production is expected to be 692.1 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.94 million tons; total supply will increase by 20.12 million tons to 833.4 million tons; total consumption will increase by 18.42 million tons to 580.49 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 1.94 million tons to 143.24 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.4% to 24.68%. Global oilseed supply is relatively abundant [20] - **Protein Meal**: Production is expected to be 400.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.48 million tons; total supply will increase by 15.56 million tons to 422.5 million tons; total consumption will increase by 14.82 million tons to 394.78 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 960,000 tons to 23.31 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will remain basically flat at 5.9%. The global protein meal market maintains a tight balance [23] - **Oils**: Production is expected to be 234.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.78 million tons; total supply will increase by 5.08 million tons to 263.6 million tons; total consumption will increase by 4.93 million tons to 228.94 million tons; ending stocks will remain the same as the previous year at 29.14 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.2% to 12.73%. Driven by biodiesel, global oil demand has improved, and the stock-to-use ratio has slightly decreased [23] - **Soybeans**: Production is expected to be 426.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.95 million tons; total consumption will increase by 13.76 million tons to 424.05 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 7.88 million tons to 123.18 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.7% to 29.32%. South American production increases will offset the decline in US soybean production [25] - **Soybean Oil**: Production is expected to be 70.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2 million tons; total consumption will increase by 1.84 million tons to 69.22 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 360,000 tons to 6.06 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will rise by 0.3% to 9.32%. The global soybean oil market is basically balanced, stocks will slightly increase, and the global oil market will maintain a tight balance [27] - **Soybean Meal**: Production is expected to be 287.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.52 million tons; total consumption will increase by 11.55 million tons to 283.37 million tons; ending stocks will rise by 730,000 tons to 18.39 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will remain basically flat at 6.5%. Global soybean meal demand is growing significantly, and the market will maintain a tight balance with strong supply and demand [29] 3. US Livestock and Dairy Products - **Beef**: Production is expected to be 11.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 580,000 tons; total consumption will decrease by 540,000 tons to 12.57 million tons; ending stocks will drop by 10,000 tons to 260,000 tons. Although both production and demand have declined, the US beef market will generally remain in a boom cycle [32] - **Dairy Products**: Production is expected to be 103.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 270,000 tons; domestic consumption is expected to be 85 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 820,000 tons; the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.28% to 6.51%. The dairy stock-to-use ratio will further decline, dairy prices will be low, supply growth will slow down, and consumption will increase [35] 4. Soft Commodities (Cotton) - In the 2025/26 period, global cotton production is expected to be 2.565 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 71,000 tons; total consumption will increase by 30,000 tons to 2.57 million tons; ending stocks will remain basically the same as the previous year at 1.706 million tons, and the stock-to-use ratio will drop by 0.8% to 66.38%. The global cotton market will continue to have an oversupply situation, and the high stock-to-use ratio will put pressure on cotton prices [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The May USDA supply and demand report is moderately bullish and directly benefits US soybeans. The report's first forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand balance shows that production is up, consumption increase exceeds production growth, ending stocks slightly rise, and the stock - to - use ratio drops, indicating a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation. The report also lowers the ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios of US soybeans for both 2024/25 and 2025/26, directly favoring US soybeans [1][54]. - The progress of US trade negotiations, especially the substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks and the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", is conducive to the export demand of US soybeans and directly benefits US soybeans. Continuous attention should be paid to China - US and other US trade negotiations to prevent uncertainties such as negotiation setbacks or stagnation [1][54]. - The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is seeking a phased low. Recently, the domestic soybean meal market has diverged from the US soybean market. On one hand, it has pre - priced the easing of China - US trade frictions; on the other hand, it has been dragged down by the sharp decline in spot prices and pre - priced the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing and the downside space is limited, the market still needs to find a phased low and stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. May USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global Soybean Situation**: The 2025/26 global soybean production is estimated at 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons (about 1.4%); consumption is estimated at 424.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.76 million tons (about 3.4%); exports are estimated at 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; imports are estimated at 186.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 124.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.54%. For 2024/25, the global soybean production is estimated at 420.87 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons from the April estimate; consumption is estimated at 410.29 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons from the April estimate; exports are estimated at 180.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; imports are estimated at 178.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; ending stocks are estimated at 123.18 million tons, an increase of 710,000 tons from the April estimate; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.84%, an increase of 0.18% from the April estimate [3][4][7]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In 2025/26, US soybean production is estimated at 118.12 million tons, a decrease of 720,000 tons; ending stocks are estimated at 8.03 million tons, a decrease compared to previous estimates; the stock - to - use ratio is 6.68%. In 2024/25, production is estimated at 118.84 million tons (unchanged from the April estimate), ending stocks are estimated at 9.53 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons from the April estimate, and the stock - to - use ratio is 7.99% [3][7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Production Changes**: In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to increase by 6 million tons, China's by 350,000 tons, while the US's decreases by 720,000 tons and Argentina's by 500,000 tons. In 2024/25, the production of the US, Brazil, and Argentina remains unchanged [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Consumption Changes**: In 2025/26, consumption in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China all increase. In 2024/25, global consumption is adjusted down by 380,000 tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's consumption [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Export Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean exports are estimated to increase by 7.56 million tons. In 2024/25, global exports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, with the US increasing by 680,000 tons, Brazil decreasing by 1 million tons, and Argentina decreasing by 300,000 tons [5]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Import Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean imports are estimated to increase by 8.66 million tons. In 2024/25, global imports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's imports [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Ending Stocks Changes**: In 2025/26, global ending stocks are estimated to increase by 1.15 million tons. In 2024/25, the US's ending stocks decrease by 680,000 tons, Argentina's increase by 100,000 tons, Brazil's increase by 1 million tons, and China's remain unchanged [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Stock - to - Use Ratio Changes**: In 2025/26, the global stock - to - use ratio decreases, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation. In 2024/25, the global stock - to - use ratio shows a slight increase, indicating a slightly looser supply - demand situation [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Meal Situation**: The May USDA report slightly raises the 2025/26 global soybean meal production and consumption, with consumption growth exceeding production growth and a slight increase in ending stocks, having a slightly bearish impact. The 2025/26 global soybean meal production is estimated at 287.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.52 million tons; consumption is estimated at 283.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.55 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 18.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.73 million tons. The ending stocks of Argentine soybean meal are slightly lowered, while those of the US, Brazil, India, and China are slightly raised [33]. 2. China - US Economic and Trade Talks - **2024/25 US Soybean Sales Progress**: As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the cumulative sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season are about 47.72 million tons, with a sales progress of about 95%, faster than the same period last year (about 92%). There are about 2.63 million tons of unsold US soybeans, and the remaining sales time is about 4 months, indicating relatively low sales pressure [36]. - **2025/26 US Soybean Sales and Trade Negotiations**: The sales of US soybeans in 2025/26 mainly depend on trade agreements. Key trade negotiation progress includes: the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", where the US and China have reached multiple positive consensuses, and the US has promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify part of the remaining tariffs; the US and the UK have reached a trade agreement; Pakistan has purchased 345,000 tons of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season; the EU, Japan, and Indonesia are planning to increase their purchases of US soybeans but are still in the negotiation stage [36][37][38]. 3. US Soybean Spring Planting Weather - **Early - May Planting Progress**: As of the week ending May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, faster than 35% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 37%; the US corn planting progress is 62%, faster than 49% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 56%, mainly due to warm and dry weather in the main production areas [50]. - **Mid - to - Late - May Weather Impact**: According to the May 12 weather forecast, there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean and corn production areas in mid - to - late May, which may slow down the planting progress and have a slightly bullish impact. Since US soybeans and corn are still in the early planting stage, there is still uncertainty about the weather in the later planting and growth stages, and there is a possibility of a "weather market" [50]. 4. Summary - **US Soybean Outlook**: The May USDA supply and demand report and China - US economic and trade talks are bullish for US soybeans. The report's forecast for 2025/26 shows a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation, and the reduction in US soybean ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios directly benefits US soybeans. The progress of trade negotiations, especially the China - US talks, is conducive to US soybean exports [54]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Outlook**: The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is looking for a phased low. It has diverged from the US soybean market, pre - pricing trade friction easing and the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing, the market still needs to stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54].