Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US intends to cease fire for a month and propose a "15 - item condition" peace - negotiation plan to Iran, which leads to a significant drop in international oil prices. This situation is bearish for the prices of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar, grains, and oils. The strategies for these commodities are to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3][10][13]. - The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [6][7]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The US's cease - fire intention and the decline in international oil prices are bearish for raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices. The strategy is to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to 12th, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among them, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports to China of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.6%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [5]. - **Strategy**: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips. The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bullish for cotton prices [6][7]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The US soybean planting area forecast was raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with the current - year cumulative soybean exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among them, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons; the soybean crushing plant operating rate was 54.22%, a 14.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Brazil's production forecast was 180 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Argentina's production forecast was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast. In the March forecast, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bearish for grain prices. The customs' relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is also bearish for meal prices. The subsequent price trend depends on the soybean import arrival rhythm and the progress of the US - Iran event. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [10]. Oils - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. The Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data showed that in January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and an 860,000 - ton increase year - on - year. According to the MPOB data, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 90,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 130,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.19 million - ton increase year - on - year. AmSpec data showed that from March 1st to 20th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.166 million tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period of the previous month. ITS data showed that from March 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.191 million tons, a 38.1% increase from the same period of the previous month. According to the Indian Refiners Association (SEA) data, as of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a 120,000 - ton increase from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 20th, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a 95,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [12]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation leads to a significant drop in international oil prices, which is bearish for oil prices. It is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 3.29 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 3.1 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.18 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was average, and the participation sentiment in some areas improved. It is expected that the short - term national egg prices may be stable or increase [15]. - **Strategy**: Although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally continued to decline, with small increases in some low - price areas. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 9.58 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 9.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.04 yuan to 8.91 yuan per kilogram. The market transaction enthusiasm was average, and it was difficult for farmers to sell pigs. It is expected that some regions may still have the intention to reduce prices today, and some low - price areas in the south may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For sugar, due to the current continuous discount of raw sugar prices to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the potential reduction of the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in Brazil's new crushing season after April this year, along with alleviated domestic production pressure at the end of the crushing season, sugar prices may still have room to rebound. It is advisable to consider going long on dips [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton prices and positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream opening rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have found temporary support at the bottom and may rebound. It is recommended to try going long on dips [4][6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, driving protein meal prices to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - For oils, affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil prices have risen significantly, driving oil prices higher. Before the end of the US - Iran incident, crude oil prices will remain high, and Indonesia is expected to tighten palm oil exports. It is bullish on oils in the medium term [12]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction has slowed down. The spot price is strong due to pulsed demand, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support from rising cost in the far - term contracts [14]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated release period while the demand is weak. The spot price is weak, and there is still a lack of a basis for price increases in the medium term. The futures price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared to the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. As of February, the national cumulative sugar production was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; and the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The ISO predicted at the end of February that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season would be 181.29 million tons [2]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared to the same period last year. China's National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to March 12th, the US current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among which, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill's operating rate was 78.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 240,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 540,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 percentage points and an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared to the previous season [4]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January; the US soybean planting area was predicted to be 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to March 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with current - year cumulative exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among which, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, with current - year cumulative exports to China of 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 13th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 990,000 tons compared to the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points and a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous season [8]. Oils - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises were not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand. From March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy's deputy minister said that the government was studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons. In February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons. From March 1st to 15th, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 921,000 tons (AmSpec data) and 926,000 tons (ITS data), an increase of 56.9% and 43.5% respectively compared to the same period last month. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 120,000 tons and basically the same as the same period last year. In the week of March 13th, the inventory of three major domestic sample oils was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were stable with some increases yesterday. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas rose by 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao rose by 0.09 yuan to 3.07 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was appropriate, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg prices will mostly remain stable with a few increases [13]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to fall over the weekend. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 9.94 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.11 yuan to 9.76 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guangxi dropped by 0.1 yuan to 9.54 yuan per kilogram. The slaughter weight of farmers was generally large, and most farmers were reducing the weight of pigs. The supply was active, the downstream demand recovered slowly, the market sales were poor, and farmers were reducing prices to sell. It is expected that today's pig prices will fall in the north and remain stable in the south [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the current continuous discount of raw sugar price to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price and the increase in crude oil price caused by geopolitical risks, there is a possibility of reducing the proportion of sugar cane for sugar production in the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season after April this year, leading to sugar production reduction. In China, at the end of the crushing season, the pressure of production increase eases, and with potential positive factors for raw sugar in the future, sugar prices may still have room for rebound. The strategy is to try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. - For cotton, the newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is a short - term negative factor for Zhengzhou cotton prices. In the medium term, the current downstream operating rate has returned to the same level as last year, which is neutral. Future price trends mainly depend on downstream operating conditions, and the short - term strategy is to turn to a wait - and - see approach [6]. - For protein meal, the March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the short - term crude oil price fluctuates sharply, driving the protein meal price to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - For oils and fats, affected by the outbreak of the geopolitical crisis, the short - term sharp increase in crude oil prices drives the prices of oils and fats to strengthen. On the other hand, before the end of the US - Iran event, the crude oil price remains at a high level, and Indonesia is expected to tighten palm oil exports. The medium - term view is to be bullish on oils and fats [13]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level is still high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations, with a post - poned supply expectation. On the other hand, the spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable, resulting in a relatively high valuation of the near - month contract on the futures market. The strategy is to short on rebounds for the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [15]. - For pigs, considering that the weight and theoretical slaughter volume are still high, although the inventory of small - scale farmers is low, the enthusiasm for second - round fattening is insufficient under the current price difference between fat and standard pigs, so the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. Pay attention to the additional pressure on the spot price caused by the diminishing marginal effect of weight gain after the increase in feed prices. The near - term futures contracts maintain a premium structure, and the strategy is to short on rebounds; for the far - term contracts, there is an expectation of capacity reduction, but the upward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, resulting in an excessive premium, so it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Summary by Category Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in China was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on price pullbacks [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports with preferential tariff rates. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 35,800 tons of cotton in the current year, with a cumulative export of 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons; the export to China in that week was 1,800 tons, with a cumulative export of 100,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,200 tons. As of the week of March 13, the spinning mill operating rate was 76%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the February prediction and 2.4 percentage points from the previous year. The predicted US cotton production in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, with the export forecast unchanged and the inventory - to - consumption ratio at 30.43%, unchanged from the previous month. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [4]. - **Strategy**: Turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: AgRural's latest forecast for Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 178 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the previous forecast; StoneX's latest forecast is 177.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous forecast. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.49 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons; the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, with a cumulative export of 10.82 million tons to China in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 13, 2026, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 15.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.19 million tons. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction and an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from February and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year. The predicted US soybean production was 11.599 million tons, the same as the February prediction; Brazil's production was predicted to be 18 million tons, the same as the February prediction; Argentina's production was predicted to be 4.8 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the February prediction. In the March prediction, the US export volume forecast remained at 4.286 million tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term [9]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 1.55% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 4.29%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52%. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. The Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data showed that in January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons from the same period last year. The MPOB data showed that in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons from the same period last year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons from the same period last year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons from the same period last year. AmSpec data showed that from March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 921,000 tons, a 56.9% increase from the same period last month; ITS data showed that the exports were 926,000 tons, a 43.5% increase from the same period last month. The Indian Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) data showed that as of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 13, the domestic sample data of the three major oils and fats inventory was 2.01 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish on oils and fats in the medium term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable. The average price in the main producing areas decreased slightly by 0.01 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained unchanged at 2.95 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.98 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg price will be mostly stable, with individual prices rising or falling [14]. - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds for the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [15]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price mostly remained stable with a few increases. The average price in the main producing areas increased by 0.02 yuan to 3.17 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.05 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained at 2.98 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the downstream digestion speed varied, most traders were confident about the future market, the inventory at each link was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg price will be mostly stable with a few increases [17]. - **Strategy**: Short on rebounds for the near - term contracts; wait and see for the far - term contracts [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For sugar, given the current low price of raw sugar and its continuous discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane ratio in the new Brazilian sugar - cane season after April this year, so it's not advisable to be overly bearish. In the domestic market, with the end of the sugar - cane crushing season, the pressure of increased production is alleviated. Coupled with potential positive factors for raw sugar in the future, there may be a rebound. The strategy is to participate in long positions in small amounts on dips [5]. - For cotton, after the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in positions and prices significantly, with the market pre - gambling on the peak season in March. Attention should be paid to the downstream startup situation in March. If it cooperates, there is still room for Zhengzhou cotton to rise. The strategy is to maintain buying on dips [9]. - For protein meal, due to the improvement in US soybean export sales and a slight downward adjustment of the Brazilian soybean yield, the price of CBOT US soybeans has strengthened recently, driving up the valuation of protein meal. However, the current domestic soybean inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of large - scale purchases of US soybeans in the far - month. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before trying to buy [12]. - For oils, affected by the geopolitical crisis, the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the short term has driven up the prices of oils. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories of major consumer countries such as China and India have further declined to a relatively low level at the end of January. The medium - term view is bullish on oils, and the strategy is to try to buy on dips [15]. - For eggs, the inventory of laying hens is relatively large. Although the egg price after the Spring Festival is higher than expected and there is no obvious inventory accumulation, behaviors such as delaying culling, molting, and frozen product warehousing have increased. While these behaviors support the spot price and the near - month futures, the increase in behaviors such as restocking and delaying culling may weaken the medium - term upward potential of egg prices and even create pressure. Attention should be paid to the valuation pressure on the far - end futures [18]. - For pigs, after the Spring Festival, the slaughter scale is significantly large and the average trading weight is high, indicating that the market clearance is not sufficient and the reduction of live - pig inventory is limited. The spot price is supported by low - price - stimulated consumption and secondary fattening, but the room for a sharp increase is also limited. The near - month futures should be treated with a bearish view after the rebound. The far - end futures are supported by capacity reduction and seasonal factors, but the room for growth is also limited under the background of a large premium. It is not advisable to chase the high price. The strategy is mainly to do reverse arbitrage or wait for a pullback and consolidation before buying [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - As of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane season, India's cumulative sugar production was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons [4]. - The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 15,900 lots, equivalent to 808,000 tons. Louis Dreyfus was the largest seller, delivering over 14,000 lots, and Sukden was the only buyer, delivering 15,900 lots [4]. - The Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) predicted that the net sugar production (excluding ethanol) in India in the 2025/26 sugar - cane season would be 29.3 million tons, a 1.65 - million - ton reduction from the second prediction and a 3.17 - million - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - Hedgepoint Global Markets estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 sugar - cane season would be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. The estimated sugar - cane production was 630 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20 million tons, and the sugar - cane to sugar ratio was 48.6%, a 2 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [4]. - As of the week of February 25, 2026, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 41, compared with 43 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports was 1.4617 million tons, compared with 1.577 million tons in the previous week [4]. - As of February 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - cane season, Thailand's sugar production reached 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 350,000 tons. In the first half of February, the sugar production was 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,000 tons [4]. - In the second half of January 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 609,000 tons of sugar - cane, with a sugar production of 5,000 tons and a sugar - cane to sugar ratio of 6.63% [4]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - cane season was expected to be 181.29 million tons, a 480,000 - ton reduction from the previous prediction [4]. Cotton Market Information - From February 12 to February 19, 2026, the US cotton export sales in the current year were 60,900 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.0507 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 156,900 tons. The export to China in that week was 600 tons, with cumulative exports to China of 98,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,800 tons [7]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the spinning mill startup rate was 64.6%, a 24.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.36 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [7]. - In January 2026, it was predicted that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 year would be 26 million tons, an 80,000 - ton decrease from the December 2025 prediction and a 200,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a 1.42 - percentage - point decrease from the December 2025 prediction and a 0.62 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [7]. - In January 2026, it was predicted that the US cotton production would be 3.03 million tons, a 76,000 - ton decrease from the December 2025 prediction. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a 2.17 - percentage - point decrease [7]. - The estimated cotton production in Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, the production in India was adjusted down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and the production in China was adjusted up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons [8]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons [8]. Protein Meal Market Information - AgRural estimated that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 year would be 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction [11]. - StoneX estimated that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 year would be 177.8 million tons, a 3.8 - million - ton reduction from the previous prediction [11]. - From February 12 to February 19, 2026, the US exported 410,000 tons of soybeans. The cumulative soybean exports in the current year were 35.65 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.83 million tons. The export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the cumulative export to China in the current year was 10.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.08 million tons [11]. - As of February 27, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 year had reached 39.66% of the total planting area, 2.38 percentage points higher than the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 12.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.36 million tons. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons [11]. - In January 2026, it was predicted that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 year would be 425.67 million tons, a 3.13 - million - ton increase from the December 2025 prediction and a 1.48 - million - ton decrease from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, a 0.39 - percentage - point increase from December 2025 and a 0.44 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. - In January 2026, it was predicted that the US soybean production would be 115.99 million tons, a 0.238 - million - ton increase from the December 2025 prediction and a 3.05 - million - ton decrease from the previous year. The predicted production in Brazil was 178 million tons, a 3 - million - ton increase from the December 2025 prediction and a 6.5 - million - ton increase from the previous year. The predicted production in Argentina was 48.5 million tons, the same as the December 2025 prediction and a 2.6 - million - ton decrease from the previous year. In addition, in the January prediction, the US export volume was slightly adjusted down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December 2025 prediction [11]. Oils Market Information - In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.276 million tons, a 383,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [14]. - From February 1 to February 28, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 19.35% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 19.20%, and the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03% [14]. - In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a 250,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 340,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The export volume was 1.48 million tons, a 160,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 320,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory was 2.82 million tons, a 230,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.24 - million - ton increase from the same period last year [14]. - From February 1 to February 28, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.025 million tons, a 350,000 - ton decrease from January [14]. - From February 1 to February 28, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 852,000 tons, a 92,000 - ton decrease from the same period last month [14]. - As of the end of January 2026, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month and a 430,000 - ton decrease from the same period last year [14]. - As of the week of February 27, 2026, the inventory of the three major domestic sample oils was 1.97 million tons, a 46,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [14]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, most egg prices in China remained stable, with some declining. The average price in the main production areas dropped by 0.01 yuan to 2.99 yuan per catty. The price in Heishan dropped by 0.05 yuan to 2.85 yuan per catty, in Guantao it dropped slightly by 0.06 yuan to 2.67 yuan per catty, and in Xishui it dropped by 0.07 yuan to 3 yuan per catty. The supply was relatively sufficient, the sales in some markets slowed down slightly, and most industry players had a bearish expectation. It is expected that today's egg prices in China may be stable or decline [17]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the mainstream domestic pig prices continued to decline. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.25 yuan to 10.54 yuan per kilogram, in Sichuan it dropped by 0.1 yuan to 10.17 yuan per kilogram, and in Guangxi it dropped by 0.29 yuan to 10.28 yuan per kilogram. After continuous price cuts in the northern pig market, the breeding side showed resistance to price cuts. Coupled with improved transactions, the market in regions such as North China and East China may rise slightly, and the market in Northeast China stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in the southern market still exceeded demand, and pig prices may decline [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere begins to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose an opportunity to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly revised downwards. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that in the 2024/25 season. Recently, China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic price. The bearish impact of the significant reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the protein meal price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13][18]. - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - term contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations. However, after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valued situation [21]. - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference limit the short - term downward space of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory post - ponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised downwards. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,180 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,270 - 5,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Strategy - Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February. After the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing. As the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [4]. Cotton Market Information - On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,695 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.24% from the previous trading day. The spot price of China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,870 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous year. The January US cotton production forecast was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons from the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The Brazilian cotton production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, the Indian production forecast was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and the Chinese production forecast was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [7][8]. Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose an opportunity to go long [9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Friday, the protein meal futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,751 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,235 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2,440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [11]. - From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons. Among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. From January 9 to January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean oil mill operating rate was 55.97%, an increase of 6.47 percentage points year - on - year. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 31.3 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 14.8 million tons compared with the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous year. The January US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 30.5 million tons compared with the previous year. The January Brazilian production forecast was 178 million tons, an increase of 30 million tons from the December forecast and an increase of 65 million tons compared with the previous year. The January Argentine production forecast was 48.5 million tons, unchanged from the December forecast and a decrease of 26 million tons compared with the previous year. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 16.3 million tons to 428.6 million tons [12][17]. Strategy - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly revised downwards. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that in the 2024/25 season. Recently, China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic price. The bearish impact of the significant reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the protein meal price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13][18]. Fats and Oils Market Information - On Friday, the fats and oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,094 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8,910 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 8,991 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8,620 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,750 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market information about soybean exports, arrivals, port inventory, oil mill operating rate, and production forecasts is the same as that of protein meal [15][17]. Strategy - The January USDA report data is slightly bearish as the production estimates of the US and Brazil are slightly revised upwards, and the US export volume is slightly revised downwards. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that in the 2024/25 season. Recently, China has increased its purchase of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic price. The bearish impact of the significant reduction of the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the protein meal price may continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [18]. Eggs Market Information - Over the weekend, the domestic egg price was mainly stable, with some local areas experiencing a slight decline. The large - sized egg price in Heishan remained at 3.5 yuan/jin, the small - sized egg price in Guantao dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui remained at 3.84 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, and the supply of small - sized eggs was slightly tight. The Spring Festival demand was gradually starting, and the market sales speed was fast. However, as the egg price rose to a phased high, the risk - aversion sentiment of traders increased, and there was a risk of a slight decline in the egg price in some areas [20]. Strategy - The pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - term contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations. However, after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valued situation [21]. Pigs Market Information - Over the weekend, the domestic pig price generally rose, with some local areas experiencing a slight decline. The average price in Henan rose 0.14 yuan to 13.34 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan rose 0.06 yuan to 12.77 yuan/kg. The overall slaughter volume may increase in the second half of the month. Coupled with the general demand in the southern market, the pig price trend will be mainly weak and stable. However, after entering February, due to the expected tightening of supply and the release of pre - festival stocking demand, the pig price still has room to rise [23]. Strategy - The demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference limit the short - term downward space of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory post - ponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised downwards. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar extraction in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to adjust. It is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [9] - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a significant negative factor. Protein meal prices have fallen to previous lows, and short - term volatility will increase [12] - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventories in major producing areas, and high domestic inventories. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see for now [18] - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - holiday stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to reach its seasonal peak. The short - term contract may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The long - term contract has positive expectations but with uncertain implementation paths [21] - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption, and the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction remains unresolved, and the spot price has limited downward momentum, supporting the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on prices [24] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 5,188 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day. The price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was quoted at 5,290 - 5,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of December, India's sugar production reached 1.5909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,856 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day [10] - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,032 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,748 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day [14] - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [15][17] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China were stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.65 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.4 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan rose 0.06 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin [20] - **Industry Outlook**: The supply is basically normal, the downstream sales speed is acceptable, and most traders' confidence in the future market has slightly recovered. The inventory at each link has slightly increased, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that most egg prices in China will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally fell, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan dropped 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained at 13.02 yuan/kg [23] - **Industry Outlook**: Currently, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, but the downstream demand support is insufficient, and the market sales are poor. Farmers may have an intention to reduce prices, and pig prices are expected to decline today [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the domestic and international macro - cycles may not support a trend - upward movement in agricultural products such as oils. However, the weakening of the US dollar may support commodity prices to some extent [4][21]. - Newly - expected global rapeseed oil production and consumption will both increase slightly year - on - year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to tighten from 13.54% to 12.48%. In the 2025/2026 season, the domestic rapeseed oil supply and demand will change little compared to the previous year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 21.7%, lower than 24.5% of the previous year. Rapeseed oil may enter the end of active destocking and the passive destocking phase in 2026 [4][21]. - Rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil prices are highly correlated. Rapeseed oil may be more affected by capital. In the new year, soybean oil and palm oil may show volatile trends, with opportunities in structural trading. Overall, rapeseed oil may not form a large - scale trend and will mainly operate in a volatile manner. Traders should seize structural and phased trading opportunities [4][22][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Market - **Diversified sources of rapeseed imports**: The EU, Canada, and China are the main rapeseed - producing regions, accounting for over 85% of global production. Canada is the largest exporter, the EU is a net importer, and China, as the largest consumer, relies on a large amount of imports. In recent years, China has increased imports from Russia and Australia [6]. - **Tightened inventory - to - consumption ratio of Canadian rapeseed**: In the 2025/2026 season, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 21 million tons. The domestic crush volume is expected to increase to 11.75 million tons, and the ending inventory is 3 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio tightens from 14.79% to 11.35% [7][8]. - **Tightened inventory - to - consumption ratio of global rapeseed oil**: In 2025/2026, global rapeseed oil production will increase to 32.06 million tons. Consumption will increase slightly, and the ending inventory will be 4.02 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio tightens from 13.54% to 12.48% [9]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - In the 2025/2026 season, the beginning inventory of rapeseed oil will increase slightly. The domestic production of rapeseed oil will decrease to 7.42 million tons due to a significant reduction in rapeseed imports. The direct import of rapeseed oil is expected to be 1.85 million tons. The total supply is expected to be 11.77 million tons, a decrease of 0.96 million tons from the previous year. The total demand is expected to slightly contract. The ending inventory is expected to be 2.1 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to be 21.7%, lower than the previous year [11][12]. Price Trends of the Oil Sector - **Soybean oil**: In 2025/2026, the global soybean supply will remain loose, but structural contradictions are prominent. The US soybean planting area is declining, Brazil's supply is abundant, and Argentina's supply faces risks from La Niña. The US biodiesel policy may boost demand but also brings uncertainties. Soybean oil may show a volatile trend, with trading opportunities in structural contradictions [17]. - **Palm oil**: In 2026, the global palm oil supply remains tight but increases slightly. Malaysia's production is flat, and Indonesia's production increases slightly. The US and Indonesia's biodiesel policies may affect demand. Palm oil will mainly show a volatile trend, with potential for structural trading opportunities [17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending stock of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, with a low inventory - consumption ratio of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply - demand report [8]. - There is no obvious bullish factor in South American weather in the short term. The weather in Argentine production areas is dry recently, but the soil moisture is suitable with no obvious adverse impact for now. Brazilian soybean sowing is nearly finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. With the expectation of a large Brazilian soybean harvest, the impact of the selling pressure during the January harvest on Brazilian CX premiums should be monitored. The sum of the US soybean futures price and Brazilian premiums is expected to decline, and M05 is expected to be relatively weak without special events [9]. - In China, the de - stocking of soybeans in January is expected to accelerate. Due to concerns about soybean shortages in the first quarter and extended customs inspections, downstream pre - holiday stocking is expected to be active, which supports domestic spot prices before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter causes a structural supply problem in China, which supports M03. M03 - M05 is still in a positive spread in the short term, but the risk lies in policy changes. The impact of stricter customs inspection policies, the volume, price, and shipping rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed supplies are hard to predict, so investors are advised to operate cautiously [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - For the basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang), the basis values in Dalian, Tianjin, and other places on December 31st were 411, 391, etc., with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was 371 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 29 [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 129 on December 31st, with a daily increase of 35 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 534, with a decrease of 2; the spot spread (in Guangdong) was 300; the spread of the main contract was 384, with an increase of 9 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9584, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 130.00 cents per bushel, with a daily increase of 0. The Brazilian soybean import gross margin per ton was also presented in the 2025 chart [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Charts were provided for China's port soybean inventory, major domestic oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, major domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory, etc., covering data from 2020 - 2025 [7]. 3.5 Machine and Pressing Situation - Charts showed the major domestic oil mills' soybean pressing volume in tons and the operating rate from 2020 - 2023 [7].

Summary of Agricultural Products Market Outlook and Key Insights Industry Overview - The agricultural products market is expected to experience a cyclical upturn in 2026 after bottoming out in 2025, following a period of supply-demand mismatch and geopolitical risks post-pandemic [1][2] - The market has shown signs of supply-side contraction since 2022, with reduced planting areas for soybeans and cotton, and a decrease in pig production [1] Key Insights and Arguments - **Commodity Price Trends**: Agricultural product prices have returned to levels seen in 2018-2019, indicating a potential upward trend compared to the 2012-2016 cycle. The current market is viewed as the beginning of a new upward cycle, especially if oil prices remain stable [1][5] - **Soybean Market Dynamics**: The global soybean market is in a tight balance, with expected slight declines in production and ending stocks for the 2025-26 season. U.S. soybean exports are affected by U.S.-China trade tensions, but domestic consumption is increasing, leading to a projected price range of 1,050-1,250 cents per bushel in 2026 [1][9] - **Corn Market Outlook**: The U.S. corn market is projected to see record global production in 2025, with strong demand and exports reaching a five-year high. Domestic corn prices are expected to fluctuate between 2,050-2,450 yuan per ton in 2025 [3][11][12] - **Pork Industry Transition**: The pork industry is undergoing a cyclical transformation, with effective capacity reduction. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to limit the hog population to 39 million by year-end, with price expectations ranging from 10.08 to 14.50 yuan per kilogram [3][13] Additional Important Considerations - **Climate Impact**: The potential return of La Niña could negatively affect soybean yields in North America, necessitating close monitoring of geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and weather patterns [4][7][8] - **Investment Opportunities**: Current market conditions present a favorable entry point for investors, as demand is expected to stabilize and grow with the recovery of the global economy and increased bioenergy needs [5] - **Supply Chain Risks**: South American soybean production is crucial for China, and any adverse weather conditions could impact supply chains and domestic prices for soybean meal [10] Conclusion - The agricultural products market is poised for a gradual recovery, with key factors such as climate conditions, trade policies, and supply chain dynamics playing critical roles in shaping future price movements and investment opportunities [1][4][5]

Group 1 - The domestic soybean meal market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, with tight U.S. soybean supply but a generally loose global soybean supply [2] - The USDA has lowered U.S. soybean yield, production, and ending stocks, with the stocks-to-use ratio dropping to a three-year low of 6.74%, despite some recovery in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans [2] - Global soybean inventory is projected to decrease to 122 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, but this still represents a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating a shift from accumulation to moderate destocking [2] Group 2 - The La Niña phenomenon may introduce complexities for South American soybean growth, with Brazil's soybean planting progress lagging behind last year, yet yield forecasts remain high [3] - Argentina's soybean planting is significantly delayed due to flooding, and if adverse weather persists into December, the estimated production of 48.5 million tons may face downward revision [3] Group 3 - China's port soybean inventory remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 292.95 million tons, reaching 9.425 million tons as of November 21 [4] - Market expectations indicate that China will import 8 million tons and 7.5 million tons of soybeans in November and December, respectively, with total imports expected to exceed 110 million tons in 2025 [4] - Even without U.S. soybean imports, domestic soybean supply is expected to remain ample through the fourth quarter due to high inventory levels [4] Group 4 - Domestic oil mills are operating at high capacity, with weekly soybean crushing volumes around 2.3 million tons, leading to a significant increase in soybean meal inventory [5] - As of November 21, soybean meal inventory reached 1.1515 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.11 million tons, reflecting a 49.47% rise [5] - Despite stable demand from livestock and poultry, cautious purchasing behavior from feed companies limits the growth of soybean meal consumption [5] Group 5 - The cost of imported soybeans is providing strong support for soybean meal prices, with high premiums for Brazilian soybeans and a rebound in U.S. soybean futures prices [6] - The overall global soybean supply remains loose, but high import costs are limiting the downside potential for soybean meal prices [6] - Future price movements will depend on South American weather conditions and developments in U.S.-China trade relations [6]