Core Viewpoint - The demand side continues to support Chicago soybean futures prices, while domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be boosted by rising raw material prices, despite weak domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Soybean Market Dynamics - As of mid-August, the excellent rate of U.S. soybeans remains high at 68%, although it has decreased for three consecutive weeks, the market's reaction has been muted [3]. - The USDA's August supply and demand report has lowered the forecast for soybean production and inventory, which has contributed to the rise in soybean futures prices [3]. - The July soybean crush volume was reported at 195.699 million bushels, exceeding market expectations of 191.59 million bushels and significantly higher than June's 185.709 million bushels, indicating strong domestic demand for U.S. soybeans [1]. Group 2: Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to fluctuate between 3,100 to 3,200 yuan per ton until the end of August due to weak demand, despite the support from rising soybean prices [1][3]. - The daily demand for domestic soybean meal reached a yearly high at the beginning of August, primarily driven by forward contracts for next year, with spot demand showing no significant improvement [3]. - As of August 15, the daily transaction volume of soybean meal was 275,000 tons, but excluding the peak on August 5, the daily volume was only 124,000 tons, reflecting cautious purchasing attitudes [3]. Group 3: U.S. Soy Oil Demand - The increase in U.S. soybean oil demand has been a key driver for the unexpected rise in soybean demand, with July soybean oil production reported at 2.348 billion pounds, showing growth month-on-month [4]. - The rising demand for biofuels is the main factor contributing to the increase in soybean oil production, which is expected to provide long-term support for soybean futures prices [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views on Oils Palm Oil - Production in the origin is expected to increase month-on-month, and the seasonal production increase is approaching, increasing the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, with the weakening of the origin's quotation, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the price difference [3]. Soybean Oil - On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is also rising. However, on the consumption side, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Recently, due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy - based trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a phased peak, and the expected marginal reduction speed will accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is always in an unfavorable range for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. Rapeseed oil consumption also remains at the rigid - demand level. There is currently high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Group 3: Oil Price Spreads Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - P 1 - 5 is 114 yuan/ton, down 14; P 5 - 9 is - 118 yuan/ton, up 22; P 9 - 1 is 4 yuan/ton, down 8; Y - P 01 is - 424 yuan/ton, up 26; Y - P 05 is - 602 yuan/ton, up 48; Y - P 09 is - 376 yuan/ton, up 18; Y 1 - 5 is 292 yuan/ton, down 36; Y 5 - 9 is - 344 yuan/ton, up 52; Y 9 - 1 is 52 yuan/ton, down 16; Y/M 01 is 2.5735, down 1.86%; Y/M 05 is 2.7688, down 1.39%; Y/M 09 is 2.6177, down 2.17%; OI 1 - 5 is 168 yuan/ton, down 9; OI 5 - 9 is - 262 yuan/ton, up 2; OI 9 - 1 is 94 yuan/ton, up 7; OI/RM 01 is 3.9924, down 1.45%; OI/RM 05 is 3.92, down 1.14%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5958, down 1.72% [4] Group 4: Palm Oil Price Information - Palm oil 01 is 8338 yuan/ton, up 0.19%; Palm oil 05 is 8230 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; Palm oil 09 is 8344 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; BMD palm oil main contract is 3991 ringgit/ton, up 0.2%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8460 yuan/ton, down 20; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 154 yuan/ton, up 54; POGO is 382.072 US dollars/ton, down 1.168; International soybean oil - palm oil is 49.91 US dollars/ton, up 22.5 [6] Group 5: Soybean Oil Price Information - Soybean oil 01 is 7938 yuan/ton, down 1.27%; Soybean oil 05 is 7626 yuan/ton, down 0.87%; Soybean oil 09 is 7984 yuan/ton, down 1.45%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.66 cents/pound, down 1.83%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8080 yuan/ton, down 20; Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is 150 yuan/ton, up 16; BOHO (weekly) is 66.472 US dollars/barrel, down 10.7912; Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil is - 320 yuan/ton, down 20 [12] Group 6: Oilseeds Market Analysis Imported Soybeans - In terms of purchases, the appreciation of the Brazilian real has strengthened the Brazilian quotation. Commercial purchases are concentrated in near - month Brazil, Argentina, and next - year Brazil. As it gradually enters the fourth - quarter purchase cycle, the purchase progress is slower than the same period last year. In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on China - US relations [15]. Domestic Soybean Meal - The supply - side pressure is still the main factor suppressing the spot price. As the soybean meal 07 contract gradually enters the delivery month, the spot pressure will continue to be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is relatively abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume is increasing month - on - month. Some regions are starting to urge提货. On the demand side, the previous soybean meal pickup was good, and the middle and downstream are mainly executing previous contracts. However, from the actual downstream physical inventory, soybean meal has not been transferred to the end - users, and the apparent consumption is mainly concentrated in middle - stream traders. Therefore, the basis and spot prices are expected to remain under pressure [15]. Rapeseed Meal - The inventory reduction of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream generally lacks cost - effectiveness in adding rapeseed meal. Recently, there has been news about the WTO establishing a panel to investigate the China - Canada tariff issue, and the market has repeatedly priced this information with little elasticity. The subsequent logic will mainly follow soybean meal, and its own market is expected to be weak [15] Group 7: Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01 closes at 3030, down 39, - 1.27%; Soybean meal 05 closes at 2723, down 24, - 0.87%; Soybean meal 09 closes at 2993, down 44, - 1.45%; Rapeseed meal 01 closes at 2327, down 47, - 1.98%; Rapeseed meal 05 closes at 2343, down 32, - 1.35%; Rapeseed meal 09 closes at 2588, down 74, - 2.78%; CBOT yellow soybeans close at 1037, unchanged, 0% [16] Group 8: Oilseeds Price Spreads Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9; The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2880, down 20; The basis of soybean meal in Rizhao is - 137, down 20; The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2617, down 2; The basis of rapeseed meal in Fujian is - 45, down 7; The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 283, down 18; The futures price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 375, down 5 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The May USDA supply and demand report is moderately bullish and directly benefits US soybeans. The report's first forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand balance shows that production is up, consumption increase exceeds production growth, ending stocks slightly rise, and the stock - to - use ratio drops, indicating a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation. The report also lowers the ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios of US soybeans for both 2024/25 and 2025/26, directly favoring US soybeans [1][54]. - The progress of US trade negotiations, especially the substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks and the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", is conducive to the export demand of US soybeans and directly benefits US soybeans. Continuous attention should be paid to China - US and other US trade negotiations to prevent uncertainties such as negotiation setbacks or stagnation [1][54]. - The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is seeking a phased low. Recently, the domestic soybean meal market has diverged from the US soybean market. On one hand, it has pre - priced the easing of China - US trade frictions; on the other hand, it has been dragged down by the sharp decline in spot prices and pre - priced the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing and the downside space is limited, the market still needs to find a phased low and stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. May USDA Monthly Supply and Demand Report - **Global Soybean Situation**: The 2025/26 global soybean production is estimated at 426.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons (about 1.4%); consumption is estimated at 424.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.76 million tons (about 3.4%); exports are estimated at 188.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; imports are estimated at 186.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 124.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.54%. For 2024/25, the global soybean production is estimated at 420.87 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons from the April estimate; consumption is estimated at 410.29 million tons, a decrease of 380,000 tons from the April estimate; exports are estimated at 180.87 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; imports are estimated at 178.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons from the April estimate; ending stocks are estimated at 123.18 million tons, an increase of 710,000 tons from the April estimate; the stock - to - use ratio is about 20.84%, an increase of 0.18% from the April estimate [3][4][7]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In 2025/26, US soybean production is estimated at 118.12 million tons, a decrease of 720,000 tons; ending stocks are estimated at 8.03 million tons, a decrease compared to previous estimates; the stock - to - use ratio is 6.68%. In 2024/25, production is estimated at 118.84 million tons (unchanged from the April estimate), ending stocks are estimated at 9.53 million tons, a decrease of 680,000 tons from the April estimate, and the stock - to - use ratio is 7.99% [3][7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Production Changes**: In 2025/26, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to increase by 6 million tons, China's by 350,000 tons, while the US's decreases by 720,000 tons and Argentina's by 500,000 tons. In 2024/25, the production of the US, Brazil, and Argentina remains unchanged [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Consumption Changes**: In 2025/26, consumption in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China all increase. In 2024/25, global consumption is adjusted down by 380,000 tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's consumption [4]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Export Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean exports are estimated to increase by 7.56 million tons. In 2024/25, global exports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, with the US increasing by 680,000 tons, Brazil decreasing by 1 million tons, and Argentina decreasing by 300,000 tons [5]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Import Changes**: In 2025/26, global soybean imports are estimated to increase by 8.66 million tons. In 2024/25, global imports are adjusted down by 1.25 million tons, mainly due to a 1 - million - ton reduction in China's imports [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Ending Stocks Changes**: In 2025/26, global ending stocks are estimated to increase by 1.15 million tons. In 2024/25, the US's ending stocks decrease by 680,000 tons, Argentina's increase by 100,000 tons, Brazil's increase by 1 million tons, and China's remain unchanged [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Stock - to - Use Ratio Changes**: In 2025/26, the global stock - to - use ratio decreases, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation. In 2024/25, the global stock - to - use ratio shows a slight increase, indicating a slightly looser supply - demand situation [7]. - **Global and Major Countries' Soybean Meal Situation**: The May USDA report slightly raises the 2025/26 global soybean meal production and consumption, with consumption growth exceeding production growth and a slight increase in ending stocks, having a slightly bearish impact. The 2025/26 global soybean meal production is estimated at 287.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.52 million tons; consumption is estimated at 283.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.55 million tons; ending stocks are estimated at 18.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.73 million tons. The ending stocks of Argentine soybean meal are slightly lowered, while those of the US, Brazil, India, and China are slightly raised [33]. 2. China - US Economic and Trade Talks - **2024/25 US Soybean Sales Progress**: As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the cumulative sales of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season are about 47.72 million tons, with a sales progress of about 95%, faster than the same period last year (about 92%). There are about 2.63 million tons of unsold US soybeans, and the remaining sales time is about 4 months, indicating relatively low sales pressure [36]. - **2025/26 US Soybean Sales and Trade Negotiations**: The sales of US soybeans in 2025/26 mainly depend on trade agreements. Key trade negotiation progress includes: the release of the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks", where the US and China have reached multiple positive consensuses, and the US has promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify part of the remaining tariffs; the US and the UK have reached a trade agreement; Pakistan has purchased 345,000 tons of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season; the EU, Japan, and Indonesia are planning to increase their purchases of US soybeans but are still in the negotiation stage [36][37][38]. 3. US Soybean Spring Planting Weather - **Early - May Planting Progress**: As of the week ending May 12, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, faster than 35% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 37%; the US corn planting progress is 62%, faster than 49% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 56%, mainly due to warm and dry weather in the main production areas [50]. - **Mid - to - Late - May Weather Impact**: According to the May 12 weather forecast, there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean and corn production areas in mid - to - late May, which may slow down the planting progress and have a slightly bullish impact. Since US soybeans and corn are still in the early planting stage, there is still uncertainty about the weather in the later planting and growth stages, and there is a possibility of a "weather market" [50]. 4. Summary - **US Soybean Outlook**: The May USDA supply and demand report and China - US economic and trade talks are bullish for US soybeans. The report's forecast for 2025/26 shows a tightening global soybean supply - demand situation, and the reduction in US soybean ending stocks and stock - to - use ratios directly benefits US soybeans. The progress of trade negotiations, especially the China - US talks, is conducive to US soybean exports [54]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Outlook**: The domestic soybean meal market is weak and is looking for a phased low. It has diverged from the US soybean market, pre - pricing trade friction easing and the pressure of soybean arrivals. Although the marginal negative factors are decreasing, the market still needs to stabilize. Future factors to watch include US soybean产区 weather, the US soybean planting area report at the end of June, and China - US economic and trade talks [2][54].