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 天润乳业(600419):25Q3行业调整延续 期待后续行业回暖及公司渠道产品创新效果
 Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 04:33
 Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the competitive dairy market and a slow recovery in end-user demand [1][2].   Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.81%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -11 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 147.66%. The adjusted net profit was 77 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.12% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 678 million yuan, down 4.84% year-on-year, with a net profit of 11 million yuan, a decrease of 77.60%, and an adjusted net profit of 19 million yuan, down 62.71% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 14.72% and 0.64%, respectively, reflecting declines of 5.15 and 5.68 percentage points, attributed to intense competition and increased promotional activities [2].   Product and Market Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from various product lines included 358 million yuan from ambient dairy products, 264 million yuan from low-temperature dairy products, and 30 million yuan from livestock products, with year-on-year changes of -4%, -6%, and +80%, respectively [1]. - Revenue from different regions showed that the company generated 358 million yuan in the local market (up 10% year-on-year) and 300 million yuan in external markets (down 14% year-on-year) [1].   Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding market channels and developing new products, with efforts including the establishment of an e-commerce subsidiary and the introduction of new products such as low-temperature yogurt and flavored milk beer [2]. - The company is optimizing its livestock structure, with a total of 51,900 cattle at the end of Q3 2025, and an increased proportion of breeding cows to 56%, enhancing feeding efficiency [2].   Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 43 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 211 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.14, 0.54, and 0.67 yuan per share, and PE ratios of 85X, 22X, and 17X [3].