债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.06 2026 年 1 月转债策略展望 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月的十大转债组合，在行业与价格分布上偏重进攻和弹性，并辅以部分相 对低价和低估值行业平衡组合风格。 投资要点： | | | | 共识凝聚，抢跑开局 | | [Table_Authors] | 顾一格(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 021-38038201 | |  | 2026 | 年 | 月转债策略展望 | 1 | | | | | | | | | | guyige@gtht.com | | | | | | | 登记编号 | S0880522120006 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 | 年近岁除，以守为攻 2025.12.05 | | --- | | 冬藏待春，顺势而为 2025.11.03 | | 乘胜追击，超额增厚 2025.10.08 | | 催化延续，转债强韧 2025.10.07 | | 休整蓄势，把握良机 2025.09.01 | 证 券 研 究 报 告 请 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Convertible Bond Index opened up by 0.02% on December 5, indicating a slight positive market sentiment in the convertible bond sector [1]. Summary by Category Market Performance - Guanzhong Convertible Bond increased by 2.5% [1] - Dongshi Convertible Bond, Xingfa Convertible Bond, and Huicheng Convertible Bond each rose by over 1% [1] - Limin Convertible Bond fell by 7% [1] - Xinhua Convertible Bond declined by over 2% [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of three investment strategies: Low Price Enhancement, Improved Dual Low, and High Price High Elasticity, which recorded returns of 1.3%, 0.5%, and 0.7% respectively during the last period, outperforming the benchmark return of 0.3% [1] - Year-to-date, these strategies have achieved returns of 17.4%, 28.2%, and 52.2%, with cumulative excess returns of 0.3%, 11.2%, and 35.2% compared to the benchmark return of 17.0% [1] - The equity market experienced fluctuations, with the Wind All A and CSI Convertible Bonds rising by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a resurgence of low volatility strategies [1] Low Price Enhancement Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Jinggong Convertible Bond (Construction Decoration), Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank), and Yangfeng Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) among others [2] - The adjustment rationale is based on the strong performance of the low price index (1.4%) and the resurgence of low volatility strategies, with a focus on stable or improving performance and reasonable premium rates [3] Improved Dual Low Strategy - The latest holdings feature new entries like Shangyin Convertible Bond (Bank) and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond (Environmental Protection) [4] - Adjustments were made due to the upward movement of the dual low index (0.4%), with a focus on stocks with improved performance or stable operations while avoiding those with high redemption progress [5] High Price High Elasticity Strategy - The latest holdings include new entries such as Wankai Convertible Bond (Basic Chemicals) and Shuiyang Convertible Bond (Beauty Care) [6] - The strategy's adjustments were influenced by the decline in high price index returns (-1.5%) and the need to manage redemption risks while maintaining a balanced industry allocation [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current market's main trend revolves around computing power and electricity, and short - term policy information during festivals and weeks does not reverse the market trend. A marginal loosening of monetary policy expectations in economies like the US and Japan may extend the market bubble and boost the prices of gold and resource - related products while raising inflation expectations [3][46] - Due to the structured nature of the equity market, there are also structured characteristics in convertible bond parity and valuation. In investment strategies, the controllability of drawdown is prioritized, followed by upward elasticity, focusing on definite directions of performance improvement or valuation repair [3][46] - In the extreme market on Friday, some recommended targets from September 22 - 26 still provided hedging space, and overall, their performance was acceptable [3][47] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market: Overall Rise with Most Industries Gaining - From September 29 to October 10, the equity market generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.80%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.11%, the CSI 300 up 1.47%, while the ChiNext Index fell 1.21%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 855.25 billion yuan to 23805.86 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 3.73% [9][12] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries rose, with 11 industries rising more than 2%. The top - performing industries were non - ferrous metals (up 11.89%), steel (up 7.89%), basic chemicals (up 4.62%), building decoration (up 4.30%), and building materials (up 4.10%) [17] 1.2 Convertible Bond Market: Overall Rise with Most Industries Gaining - From September 29 to October 10, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.58%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 17 industries rose, with one industry rising more than 2%. The top - performing industries were beauty care (up 2.12%), environmental protection (up 1.81%), coal (up 1.71%), non - ferrous metals (up 1.25%), and basic chemicals (up 1.15%) [21] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 1057.27 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 75.66 billion yuan, a month - on - month decline of 6.68%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Guanzhong Convertible Bond, Jize Convertible Bond, etc. [21] - The overall conversion premium rate of the market gradually recovered, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 39.22%, an increase of 0.60 pcts compared to the previous period. There were different changes in conversion premium rates and conversion parities in different price, parity, and industry ranges [25][36][37] 1.3 Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From September 29 to October 10, the weekly weighted average and median increases of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 27.72% month - on - month, at the 51.00% quantile level since 2022, while that of the underlying stock market decreased by 22.26%, at the 92.50% quantile level [41] - Overall, the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market was better during this period, but there were differences on different trading days [41][42][44] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies for the Future - Continue to be cautious about performance and valuation, and be sensitive to external disturbances such as tariff and non - tariff barriers and the reconstruction of the Fed's monetary policy framework [3][46] - Add several balanced chemical targets for reference, including Xingfa Group/Xingfa Convertible Bond, Hebang Biotech/Hebang Convertible Bond, and Kaisheng New Materials/Kaisheng Convertible Bond. The first two are leading companies in the glyphosate industry, which is in the middle - early stage of a "small - cycle recovery" [2][47][48] - The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Liqun Convertible Bond, Meijin Convertible Bond, etc. [4][50][51]

Core Viewpoint - Hubei Xingfa Chemical Group Co., Ltd. announced the interest payment details for its convertible bonds issued on September 22, 2022, indicating a 1.0% annual coupon rate for the third year [1] Group 1 - The interest payment for the convertible bonds will occur on September 22, 2025, covering the interest period from September 22, 2024, to September 21, 2025 [1] - The face value of each convertible bond is 100 yuan, resulting in an interest payment of 1 yuan per bond (tax included) [1] - The record date for interest payment is September 19, 2025, with the ex-dividend date and payment date both set for September 22, 2025 [1] Group 2 - The interest payment will be made to all registered bondholders as of the record date [1] - Different types of investors will have varying tax obligations on the interest income, and the company will appoint relevant institutions to handle the payment and interest distribution [1]

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend of 1.00 RMB per share (including tax) for the fiscal year 2024, approved at the annual shareholders' meeting on April 24, 2025 [2][3][4] - The total cash dividend distribution amounts to 1,103,255,194 RMB (including tax), based on the total share capital of 1,103,255,194 shares [4] - The adjusted conversion price for the company's convertible bonds will be 28.40 RMB per share, effective from June 20, 2025, following the dividend distribution [10][13] Dividend Distribution Details - The cash dividend will be distributed to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the close of trading on the registration date [3][4] - The distribution method includes direct payment to shareholders who have completed designated transactions, while those who have not will have their dividends held by the clearing company until the transaction is completed [5][6] - Tax implications for individual shareholders vary based on the holding period, with different tax rates applied for different durations [7][8] Convertible Bond Adjustments - The conversion price for the company's convertible bonds was adjusted from 29.40 RMB to 28.40 RMB per share due to the cash dividend distribution [10][12][13] - The adjustment follows the company's bond issuance regulations, which stipulate that the conversion price must be adjusted in the event of cash dividend distributions [11][12] - The bonds will be suspended from conversion from June 11, 2025, to June 19, 2025, and will resume conversion on June 20, 2025 [14]

Group 1 - The company announced a cash dividend distribution plan for the year 2024, proposing to distribute 10 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares held by shareholders, totaling 1,103,255,126 yuan, which accounts for 68.89% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [1][2] - The company's convertible bonds, referred to as "Xingfa Convertible Bonds," will suspend conversion during the dividend distribution period, specifically from June 11, 2025, until the registration date for the dividend distribution [1][2] - The company will adjust the conversion price of the "Xingfa Convertible Bonds" in accordance with the terms outlined in the bond issuance prospectus after the dividend distribution is implemented [2] Group 2 - The company will disclose the implementation announcement of the dividend distribution and the adjustment of the convertible bond conversion price on June 12, 2025 [2] - The annual shareholders' meeting to review and approve the dividend distribution plan was held on April 24, 2025 [2] - The company has provided contact information for inquiries regarding the announcement, including a phone number and email address [2][3]

Group 1 - Gansu Energy Chemical's subsidiary, Jinhai Coal Mine, experienced a safety accident [1] - Xingfa Convertible Bonds will not undergo adjustments [1] - New stock subscriptions for Jiangshun Technology and Zhongjie Automobile are available on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [1]