基础化工/农化制品 公 司 研 究 云图控股（002539.SZ） 2025 年 07 月 10 日 复合肥龙头完善上游合成氨、磷矿石等原料布局，广 西贵港项目打开未来成长空间 投资评级：买入（维持） ——公司信息更新报告 | 日期 | 2025/7/9 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 10.04 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.12/6.40 | | 总市值(亿元) | 121.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 88.67 | | 总股本(亿股) | 12.08 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 8.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 115.13 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 云图控股 沪深300 | 金益腾（分析师） | 张晓锋（分析师） 宋梓荣（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn songzirong@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S079052002 ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2023, 38 new mineral sites were discovered nationwide, representing a 31% year-on-year increase, with 25 of them being large and medium-sized [1] - Significant breakthroughs were made in important mineral types, including the discovery of China's first super-large uranium mine in Heilongjiang Province and a new rubidium resource of 3.37 million tons in Hebei Province [1] - Most mineral types have completed their exploration targets ahead of schedule for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the total investment in non-oil and gas mineral exploration reached 6.993 billion yuan, a 23.9% year-on-year increase, indicating a sustained growth trend [2] - Social funding accounted for 3.359 billion yuan, a 28.2% increase, making up 48.0% of total exploration investment, reflecting increased corporate enthusiasm for mineral exploration [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has increased the supply of exploration rights, with 581 strategic mineral exploration rights issued in 2024, the highest in a decade, and 318 issued in the first half of 2025 [2]

全球经济趋势对化工行业有何影响？ 2025 年全球经济增长预期为 2.8%，较去年有所回落。新兴国家表现相对较好， 但发达国家仍面临高通胀压力，整体需求增速偏弱。此外，中美贸易战等因素 影响了国内出口，特别是醋酸、聚醇酶和草甘膦等主要化工品的出口量有所下 磷化工上游资源短缺：磷矿资源短缺维持高景气，虽有新产能，但投产 不及预期及政策限制，磷矿释放量或低于预期，利好云天化和七花集团 昌宏股份。 AI 服务器升级带动材料产业：AI 服务器升级换代带动材料产业升级换代 需求，如高德素质 PP 产业受益显著，东泰科技收入端预计有较大增长， 明年也有新产品释放。 降。因此，尽管全球经济保持小幅增长，但对化工行业的需求支撑力度有限。 景气为引，成长相随—化工行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250708 摘要 化工行业整体下行：毛利率和利润持续下降，受商品价格指数 CCPI 及 煤炭、原油价格影响，航空产品价差显示行业普遍亏损，尚未出现明确 拐点。 全球经济增长放缓：2025 年全球经济增长预期回落至 2.8%，发达国家 高通胀压力持续，新兴市场表现相对较好，中美贸易战影响化工品出口， 需求支撑力度有限。 资本开支增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd., is actively responding to regulatory inquiries regarding its 2024 annual report, particularly focusing on its mining operations and financial disclosures related to its mineral resources [1][2]. Mining Operations - The company holds a total of 40 mining rights, including 34 exploration rights and 6 mining rights, with an investment of approximately 620 million yuan for acquiring these rights [1][2]. - The mining sector has become a core contributor to the company's operating profits, with an expected profit contribution of 250 million yuan from phosphate rock sales in 2024 [1][2]. - The company employs a phased investment and rolling development strategy in its mining operations to manage risks and ensure cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating income of 8.547 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, down 97.55% from the previous year [1][12]. - The phosphate and salt mines have generated significant revenue, with phosphate sales expected to increase as construction projects are completed [5][12]. Investment Strategy - The company is strategically expanding into the mining sector, aligning with macroeconomic policies and market conditions, while leveraging its existing resources and personnel expertise [9][10]. - The company has established a robust management structure and has recruited over 180 new employees in the mining sector since 2024, enhancing its operational capabilities [8][9]. Risk Management - The company utilizes a joint venture model for overseas mining projects to mitigate risks and ensure compliance with local regulations [10][11]. - A comprehensive risk control framework is in place for both domestic and international mining operations, focusing on environmental protection, safety, and regulatory compliance [10][11]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - The company has achieved significant sales in its mining operations, with phosphate and salt mines contributing to the majority of its revenue [5][12]. - The sales model primarily involves internal sales within the group, with a high collection rate of 90% on receivables [5][12].

化工行业周报（20250630-20250706） 本周液氯、丁酮、TDI、环氧氯丙烷等产品涨幅居前 2025 年 07 月 07 日 化工周观点： ➢ 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。建议开始寻找二季度景气度好，业绩有望超 预期的标的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得和卓越新能。首先是与宏观经济波动相 关性较弱，受益 AI 资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集团是 AI 服务器中核 心电子树脂的主要国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续放量，公司业绩有望 环比提升。其次是海外有工厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分行业龙头，建议关注 涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。并建议关注公司自身产能增长，随着新项目新产 品投产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。 ➢ 磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的 出口指导具体情况如下：1、2025 年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在 5-9 月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。 3、2025 年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有 望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持企业盈利水平，建议关 注具备磷矿资源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [7][10]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices of potassium fertilizer and glyphosate, with supply constraints for the insecticide "Kangkuan" [2][5]. - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by tight supply and demand, with a significant reliance on imports, which is projected to increase due to food security concerns [2][27]. - The phosphoric chemical sector is anticipated to maintain high price levels due to the scarcity of phosphate rock resources and increasing demand from new applications [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Global potassium fertilizer prices are expected to recover as demand increases, with China being the largest consumer and heavily reliant on imports [2][27]. - Domestic production of potassium chloride is projected to decrease slightly in 2024, while imports are expected to reach a historical high [27]. - The domestic potassium chloride price is forecasted to rise by approximately 100 yuan/ton in July due to increased port prices [2][45]. Phosphoric Chemicals - The price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, with a tight supply-demand balance [3][51]. - As of June 30, 2025, the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan it is 970 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [3][51]. - The export policy for phosphoric fertilizers emphasizes domestic priority, with reduced export quotas expected to alleviate downward pressure in the domestic market [4]. Pesticides - The supply of "Kangkuan" has been unexpectedly restricted, leading to a potential price increase for the product [5]. - Glyphosate prices have risen by 1,300 yuan/ton in June, driven by increased demand from South America as planting areas for soybeans and corn expand [5][9]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the glyphosate sector, such as "Xingfa Group," which has a significant production capacity [9]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends "Yaji International" for potassium fertilizer, projecting production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][49]. - For phosphoric chemicals, "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group" are highlighted as key players due to their rich phosphate reserves [6]. - In the pesticide sector, "Xingfa Group" is recommended for its leading position in glyphosate production [9].

太平洋近日发布太平洋：我国磷矿资源丰富，磷化工产业体系完整，是全球最大的磷矿 石、磷化学品生产国；但也面临磷矿综合利用水平偏低、资源可持续保障能力不强、磷化工 绿色发展压力较大、磷化学品供给结构性矛盾突出等问题，制约产业高质量发展。实现磷资 源高效高值利用，增强全产业链竞争优势，已经成为行业发展趋势。 云南作为我国磷矿资源富集区和磷化工产业重镇， 2024年全国磷矿石总产量1.14亿吨， 云南磷矿石产量达2880万吨，约占全国25%；同时可有效辐射东南亚，资源优势、区位优势 明显。 产业内公司在磷矿石、磷肥、磷酸、农药的基础上，积极拓展饲钙、磷酸铁锂、六氟磷 酸锂等高附加值新材料产品，优化产业结构，推进磷矿石-磷化工-精细化工材料的产业链一 体化。 风险提示： 产能过剩、产品价格大幅下跌的风险； 下游需求不及预期的风险；项目进 度不及预期、安全及环保风险等。（太平洋 王亮,王海涛） 【责任编辑：杨梓安 】 以下为研究报告摘要： 报告摘要 磷资源高效高值利用、提质增效成为行业发展趋势。 我国磷矿资源丰富，磷化工产业体系完整，是全球最大的磷矿石、磷化学品生产国；但 也面临磷矿综合利用水平偏低、资源可持续保障能力不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the leading companies in the phosphate chemical industry, particularly for Yunnan-based companies like Yuntianhua and Chuanjinnuo, based on their competitive advantages and growth prospects [70][73]. Core Insights - The phosphate chemical industry is experiencing a trend towards efficient and high-value utilization of phosphate resources, driven by the need for sustainable development and enhanced competitiveness across the entire industry chain [5]. - Yunnan Province is highlighted as a key area for phosphate resources in China, contributing approximately 25% of the national phosphate rock production in 2024, with a total output of 28.8 million tons [8][67]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding into high-value new materials such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate, which are essential for the growing electric vehicle and energy storage markets [8][61][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Phosphate Chemical Industry Chain Overview - The phosphate chemical industry is a significant branch of basic chemicals, utilizing phosphate rock to produce various phosphate products, which are widely used in agriculture, food, and electronics [14]. - Phosphate rock prices have maintained a high level of prosperity since 2021, with market prices for 30% grade phosphate rock exceeding 1000 RMB/ton by the end of 2022 [29]. 2. Downstream Demand for Phosphate Rock - Approximately 70% of phosphate rock is used for fertilizers, with stable demand from the agricultural sector and increasing demand from new materials [34]. - The apparent consumption of phosphate rock in China is projected to reach 119 million tons by 2024, driven by steady agricultural product demand and rapid growth in the new energy sector [34]. 3. Yunnan Province Phosphate Chemical Situation and Related Companies - Yuntianhua is identified as a leading phosphate mining company in China, with a phosphate rock production capacity of 14.5 million tons per year, and is expected to see stable growth in its main products [70]. - Chuanjinnuo is expanding its operations with a new project in Egypt, which is expected to generate significant revenue and profit upon completion [73].

金诚信 20250702 速也有所下滑，因为去年收购了鲁班比矿山，将其转为资源开发项目。预计今 年公司矿服增速基本持平，但公司计划签订一到两个大单，如与五矿资源签订 科马考项目，使得 2026 年开始增速回升。因此最差阶段已过去，未来增速可 观。 金诚信公司的资源开发业务情况如何？ 摘要 全球铜供需紧张，刚果金卡莫阿卡库拉铜矿停产影响显著，沪铜伦铜库 存均处历史低位，美国或加征铜关税，推高美铜库存，伦敦库存存在逼 仓风险。 宏观层面，美国降息预期升温，经济预测偏向温和再通胀或软着陆，利 好铜等高敏感度商品，预计未来铜价有较大上涨空间。 金诚信矿服业务受非洲电力供应及鲁班比矿山转为资源开发项目影响， 2024 年增速放缓，但预计签订大单后，2026 年起增速将回升。 金诚信资源开发业务快速增长，现有迪克鲁什、龙首、鲁班比三座在产 矿山，有效产能 5 万吨，规划到 2029 年提升至 18 万吨以上，增速领 先。 金诚信磷矿业务稳步发展，现有产能 30 万吨，预计 2027 年新增 50 万 吨，净利润贡献将从 1 亿提升至 2.5 亿人民币。 基于 9,300 美元/吨铜价假设，金诚信预计今年净利润约 22 亿 ...

金诚信 20250627 Q&A 2025 年全球铜供需结构预计将如何演变，哪些因素将对其产生影响？ 2025 年全球铜供需结构预计将维持偏紧张状态。主要影响因素包括：美联储 释放鸽派信号导致市场进入预防性降息交易，美元指数下跌，商品价格逆势上 涨；2025 年第一季度全球主要铜矿产量同比下滑近 1%；国内现货 TC 价格跌 破-10 美元并持续下跌至-40 美元以下，凸显矿端持续紧缺；以及近期卡莫尔 铜矿的减产。 公司远期铜产能有望超过 15 万吨，实现 2025 年产能基础上的翻倍增长。主 要增量项目包括：龙溪铜矿东区（二期）建成后年产能将达到 10 万吨；哥伦 比亚项目投产后平均年产量预计达到 2.5 万吨；以及完成技改的鲁班矿和稳定 生产的规划。 近两年公司矿服业务面临哪些挑战，未来两年预计将如何发展？ 摘要 全球铜矿供应趋紧，2025 年一季度主要铜矿产量下滑，现货 TC 价格跌 破-10 美元并持续下跌，卡莫尔铜矿减产，预示铜价上涨潜力。 公司铜产量快速增长，2024 年达 4.87 万吨，预计 2025 年受益于龙溪 铜矿一期达产和鲁班比并表，全年产量将增至 7.9 万吨，同比增长 62%。 公 ...