Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) [1] Core Insights - UBS has raised the revenue forecast for SMIC for 2026 to 2029 by 4% to reflect greater domestic opportunities and improved supply-demand dynamics, but has lowered the profit forecast by 8% to 18% due to higher depreciation burdens [1] - The target price is set at HKD 76, based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 3.3 times over the next 12 months, with a long-term return on equity of 11.3% [1] - SMIC's net profit for the last quarter increased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding previous guidance of a 0% to 2% increase and market expectations of a 1.3% increase, driven by slight growth in wafer shipments and average selling prices [1] - The gross margin was reported at 19.2%, aligning with the guidance range of 18% to 20%, but below the market expectation of 20% [1] Revenue and Capacity Outlook - With the 8-inch chip capacity utilization exceeding 100% and the 12-inch chip capacity nearing full operation, management forecasts that capital expenditures this year will remain at USD 8.1 billion, with a projected capacity increase of 40k wafers per month for 12-inch capacity by year-end to meet strong domestic demand from fabless companies [1] - SMIC aims to focus on expanding in areas with tight supply, such as BCD chips, memory, and memory-related products [1] - Management predicts that sales will remain flat in the first quarter, with a gross margin expected to be between 18% and 20%, and sales growth anticipated to exceed the industry average for the year [1] Depreciation and Margin Pressure - The report indicates that due to ongoing business expansion, management expects depreciation expenses to increase by 30% year-on-year this year, maintaining high levels into next year, which will further pressure gross margins [2] - UBS currently forecasts a gross margin of 20% for the first quarter and 21.2% for the entire year, with depreciation pressure expected to be offset by a more favorable pricing environment [2]

Group 1 - UBS raised the revenue forecast for SMIC (00981) for 2026 to 2029 by 4% to reflect greater domestic opportunities and improved supply-demand dynamics [1] - The profit forecast was lowered by 8% to 18% due to higher depreciation burdens, with a target price set at HKD 76 based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 3.3 times and a long-term return on equity of 11.3% [1] - SMIC's net profit for the last quarter increased by 4.5% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding previous guidance of 0% to 2% and market expectations of 1.3% growth, driven by slight increases in wafer shipments and average selling prices [1] Group 2 - The management predicts that capital expenditures this year will remain at USD 8.1 billion, with a 40 kW per month increase in 12-inch capacity by year-end to meet strong domestic demand from fabless companies [1] - The focus will be on expanding in areas with tight supply, such as BCD chips and memory-related products [1] - The management forecasts flat sales for the first quarter, with a gross margin between 18% and 20%, and expects sales growth to exceed the industry average this year [1] Group 3 - The management anticipates a 30% year-on-year increase in depreciation expenses this year, which will continue to exert pressure on gross margins [2] - UBS currently forecasts a gross margin of 20% for the first quarter and 21.2% for the entire year, with depreciation pressure offset by a more favorable pricing environment [2]