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振华科技(000733):产品结构变动和价格等因素导致业绩承压,随着景气上行有望Q3起环比改善
Orient Securities· 2025-08-24 07:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 63.69 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to changes in product structure and pricing, but is expected to improve sequentially starting from Q3 as market conditions recover [1][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.41 billion CNY in H1 2025, a decrease of 0.83% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 312 million CNY, down 25.74% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue increase of 6.05% to 1.50 billion CNY, although net profit decreased by 20.34% to 253 million CNY [1]. Financial Forecasts - The gross margin has been adjusted downward, with EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised to 1.93 CNY, 2.82 CNY, and 3.37 CNY respectively [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the defense market, with significant improvements anticipated in revenue recognition and profitability as the market conditions improve [10]. - The financial projections indicate a revenue growth of 26.5% in 2025, followed by 24.2% in 2026 and 16.3% in 2027 [4][10]. Company Financial Information - The company reported a revenue of 7.79 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected revenue of 6.60 billion CNY in 2025, and 8.20 billion CNY in 2026 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to recover from 970 million CNY in 2024 to 1.07 billion CNY in 2025, and further to 1.56 billion CNY in 2026 [4]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 46.9% in 2025 but is projected to stabilize at 49.4% in 2026 and 2027 [4].
振华科技:短期业绩承压,随着景气上行公司业绩有望持续改善-20250427
Orient Securities· 2025-04-27 01:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.12 CNY [4]. Core Views - The company's short-term performance is under pressure, but it is expected to improve as industry demand recovers [9]. - The company reported a revenue of 5.219 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 32.99%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 970 million CNY, down 63.83% [1][9]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 908 million CNY, down 10.45%, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, down 42.60% [1]. Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - Revenue growth rates have been adjusted downward due to industry demand and price control, with EPS for 2025 and 2026 revised to 2.52 CNY and 3.30 CNY respectively, and a new EPS for 2027 set at 4.08 CNY [2]. - The target price is based on a PE ratio of 31 times for comparable companies in 2025 [2]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue is projected to recover to 6.775 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 29.8% [3]. - The gross margin is expected to decline to 49.7% in 2024, down 9.65 percentage points, and further to 42.49% in Q1 2025, down 5.07 percentage points [9]. - The net profit margin is projected to improve gradually, reaching 22.3% by 2027 [3]. Company Overview - The company is positioned as a leading platform in military components, with significant growth potential through product diversification and industry chain extension [9]. - The company has been increasing inventory to meet order delivery requirements, indicating a recovery in industry demand [9].