证券研究报告 钢铁周报：预期先行，钢铁继续 行业评级：看好 2026 年 03 月 01 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格表现 | | | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 上证指数 | | 4 , | 163 | 2 | . | 0% | 4 . | 9% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 711 | 1 | 1% . | | 1 . | 7% | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 3 , | 134 | 12 | 3% . | | 17 . | 8% | | | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , | 917 | 12 | 3% . | | 15 . | 9% ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the steel sector, emphasizing a positive quarterly rhythm for steel equities [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 2,700, with a weekly increase of 4.0% and a year-to-date increase of 15.0% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,320 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.2% and no change year-to-date [3] - The iron ore price index is at 107 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 865,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.1% and a year-to-date decrease of 8.0% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 381,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.1% and a year-to-date increase of 1.2% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,551,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% and a year-to-date increase of 4.3% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be 900,000 tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to reach 245,000 tons [9] - The operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 mills is currently at a healthy level, indicating stable production capacity utilization [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that while iron water production has decreased and profitability has declined, equity performance benefits from low valuations [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Steel Weekly Data - The SW Steel Index increased by 2.6% week-on-week and 24.7% year-to-date [3] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,076 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 41.9% [5] - The iron ore port inventory stands at 14,539 million tons, reflecting a year-to-date decrease of 2.2% [5] Supply and Demand - The average daily pig iron production is projected to be 220 million tons in 2025 [9] - The report highlights the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across China, indicating a steady production environment [12][14] Price Trends - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is reported at 3,210 CNY per ton, with a year-to-date increase of 5.9% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 108 USD per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 2.4% [3]